Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 231603

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: a strong ridge building east 
of Sierra Madre Oriental this weekend will support the next gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin 
to funnel through the chivela pass on Sun morning, increasing to 
gale force sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt 
on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal 
gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon night. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03/hsfep2 or at 
website https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for 
further details.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06n77w 
to 03n85w to 05n94w. The intertropical convergence zone axis 
extends from 05n98w to 02n108w to 05n117w, then resumes west of 
a surface trough near 04n123w and continues along 01n133w to 
01n140w. Scattered moderate convection is from 03n to 08n 
between 91w and 103w. 


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California peninsula 
offshore forecast waters and extends to the region of Jalisco. 
Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds 
across the offshores N of 15n and variable to gentle winds 
elsewhere. NW swell with a period of mainly 11-13 seconds 
continue to support seas of 8 to 9 ft off baja, which will 
gradually subside to less than 8 ft by early sun. Gentle to 
moderate N-NW winds with seas to 7 ft are expected afterwards, 
continuing through the middle of the week.  

Gulf of california: winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt  
in the central and southern Gulf of California this evening 
through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens 
between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over 
western Mexico.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of papagayo most of the forecast period. Winds 
will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours 
with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some 
added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW 
Caribbean. The forecast calls for winds reaching 30 kt at night, 
with building seas of 8 to 11 ft.

Gulf of panama: gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected 
through Mon, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Winds will increase to 20 
kt Mon night through Wed, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft in 
response to the increasing winds.

Remainder of the area... 

A ridge extends se across the northern forecast waters to the 
offshore waters of Jalisco, Mexico. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 09n to 
15n between 116w and 128w. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 
ft range.

NW swell continues to propagate across the NE waters, 
particularly N of 20n E of 126w. This swell event will continue 
to push southward through late tonight before starting to 
subside. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far 
NW corner of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread se 
across the NW waters through mid week.



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