Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 221605

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...Special features...

Ashfall advisory: the Fuego Volcano at 14.5n 90.9w over S 
Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the 
surface through tonight N of 14n and E of 93w. Low level 
visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise 
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged 
to report the observation to the National Weather Service by 
calling 305-229-4425. 

Please refer to the east Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers hsfep2/fzpn03 knhc for more details on the 
ashfall advisory.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 09n83w to 02n100w. The ITCZ axis
continues westward from 02n100w to 04n120w to 06n140w. Scattered
moderate convection is within an area bounded by 14n125w to 
07n124w to 07n133w to 09n140w to 13n140w to 12n132w to 14n125w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will briefly 
increase to 20-25 kt late tonight through Fri morning before
diminishing, with seas briefly peaking at 7-8 ft during the 

A weakening cold front is pushing across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California norte. Only light to moderate
winds are following the front, however, a new cold front or
trough will also move into the area by Fri evening. Northerly
winds behind that next front will increase to fresh to strong by
Fri evening and will spread southward across the Gulf W of 110w
through early Sat, with fresh to occasionally strong winds then
persisting across the central and southern Gulf through early
next week. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft during the stronger

High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW 
to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell to 8 
ft N of 25n today. The area of high seas will decay through Fri. 
Reinforcing high pres behind a new cold front will bring fresh 
to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California norte by Fri 
afternoon, spreading southward Fri night and Sat, with seas 
reaching to 8-9 ft. Conditions will improve for the second half 
of the weekend into early next week.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central 
America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

In the Gulf of papagayo, fresh to strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo to near 
90w through Sat, then will pulse to fresh thereafter. Seas will 
build to 8-10 ft through early Fri, then will peak at 7 or 8 ft 

In the Gulf of Panama, northerly flow will pulse to fresh levels
during the overnight and early morning hours through Sat morning.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05n. 

Remainder of the area... 

A weakening cold front stretches from Baja California norte near
27n115w to 24.5n130w. Reinforcing strong high pres behind the 
weakening front will support fresh to strong trade winds across 
most of the tropical waters W of 115w and N of the ITCZ through 
the weekend into early next week.

Long period NW swell greater than 7-8 ft dominates the area
roughly N of 07n and W of 110w. Strong high pres building N of 
the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and 
seas to 10-13 ft from near 10n to 20n W of around 120w through
the weekend into early next week.



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