Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 180600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/180600z-190600zdec2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 20.4s
151.0eimatele, is now located near 19.8s 152.6e, approximately 130
nm east-northeast of creal reef. This system is assessed as a cold-
core subtropical cyclone and is located under a 500mb inverted
trough. Additionally, the system is located poleward of the
subtropical ridge under 200mb southwesterly flow. Animated enhanced
infrared satellite imagery and radar imagery from the MacKay radar
indicate isolated deep convection to the east. A 172306z mhs metop-b
89ghz image depicts a broad, defined low-level circulation with
significant dry air over the equatorward side. Upper level analysis
indicates a marginal environment with low vertical wind shear (10-15
knots) and limited upper level outflow. Surface observations from
creal reef, approximately 35nm west-southwest, reveal sustained 25
to 30 knot winds and slp near 1002mb. Numerical models indicate the
system will track northwestward over the next few days with limited
development, however, there is a slight probability that the system
may regenerate as a warm-core tropical cyclone as it tracks into a
more favorable environment with warmer SST (27-28c). Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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