Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 231430
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/231430z-240600zfeb2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/230752zfeb2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230600z, typhoon 02w (Wutip) was located near 11.4n
143.2e, approximately 170 nm southwest of andersen AFB, Guam, and
had tracked northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 115 knots gusting
to 140 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 230900) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 95p) has persisted near
10.1s 175.0w, approximately 460 nm northwest of Pago Pago, American
Samoa. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 230901z
mhs 89ghz microwave image show a very broad circulation with flaring
convection located to the north. A 230937z ascat-c pass shows a
broad area of turning with primarily 20 knot winds and higher winds
displaced to the north. The disturbance is currently located in an
area of good upper level divergence, moderate to high vertical wind
shear (20-30 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30
celsius). Global models are in agreement that the system will
intensify to warning criteria within the next few days as the system
moves south into an area of low vertical wind shear. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 2.B.(1) as a low.//

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