Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 220600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/220600z-230600zfeb2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 95w) previously located 
near 5.5n 143.8e, is now located near 5.3n 140.9e, approximately 300 
nm southeast of Yap. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 
220029z metop-b ascat image depict sparse, flaring convection over 
slight low level troughing. The upper level environment is favorable 
with poleward outflow enabling strong divergence aloft with low-
moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures 
are also favorable (29-30 celsius) and will support further 
development. Global dynamic model guidance maintains a weak 
circulation travelling westward in a straight line with little 
development for the duration of the model run.  Maximum sustained 
surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level 
pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. The potential for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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