Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 151800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/151800z-161800zdec2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/151351zdec2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/142051zdec2018//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 151200z, tropical cyclone 08b (eight) was located near
10.4n 85.1e, approximately 450 nm south-southeast of visakhapatnam,
India, and had tracked north- northwestward at 08 knots over the
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35
knots gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtio31 pgtw 151500) for
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 91s) previously located
near 8.2s 91.5e, is now located near 8.8s 90.9e, approximately 405.
Nm west-northwest of Cocos Island.  Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed, consolidating low
level circulation center with persistent deep convection building
over the center. Upper-level analysis shows a marginal upper level
environment with high (25-30 knots) vertical wind shear offset by
strong upper-level divergence and a poleward outflow channel. Sea
surface temperatures are favorable for tc development at 28c-30c.
All global models are in good agreement for development of 35 knot
winds or more within 24 hours tracking generally southward. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains high. See ref b (wtxs21 pgtw 142100) for further
details.
      (2) the area of convection (invest 92s) previously located
near 9.4s 57.7e, is now located near 10.0s 57.8e, approximately 886
nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery and a 151427z 91ghz ssmis image depict a partially
exposed, slowly consolidating low level circulation (llc) with
sparse convection. Sea surface temperatures are favorable (between
28-30 degrees celsius). The upper level environment is overall
marginal, with moderate vertical wind shear (between 15-25 knots)
and moderate but improving upper-level divergence due to general
easterly ul outflow and a point source aloft. Global models show
slow development over the next 48-72 hours with a generally eastward
track. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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