Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 241800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/241800z-251800znov2017//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96s) previously located 
near 4.2s 93.6e, is now located near 5.4s 95.1e, approximately 420 
nm north-northwest of Cocos Island. Animated enhanced infrared 
imagery depicts disorganized and flaring covection over a low level 
circulation (llc). A 241239z 91ghz ssmis microwave image further 
describes the current poor organization of the llc. 96s is currently 
suffering from high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear and weak upper 
level divergence and poleward outflow which are limiting 
development. However warm (29-30 celsius) sea surface temperatures 
are helping sustain convection. Global dynamic model guidance 
indicates the unlikely possiblity of development 3-5 days out as 
invest 96s meanders to the southwest. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
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