- día tres
acus02 kwns 231711
Storm Prediction Center ac 231711
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion
of central and southern Georgia...
A few storms with gusty winds might occur Sunday morning, mainly
across a portion of central and southern Georgia.
A strong synoptic upper trough will move northeast through the Ohio
Valley, Great Lakes and northeast U.S. Sunday with attendant area of
low pressure occluding over the Great Lakes. Trailing front will
extend south from the low through the southern Appalachians into the
western Florida Panhandle. A moist boundary layer with mid 60s f
dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector as far
north as central Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. However, instability
will remain very weak (mucape less than 500 j/kg) owing to
widespread clouds and marginal lapse rates. A low topped band of
convection will likely accompany the cold front early in the period,
much of which will produce little to no lightning. This activity
will be embedded within strong wind fields with 40-50 kt in the
lowest 2 km, and potential will exist for some of this momentum to
be transported down to the surface. However, the tendency will be
for deeper forcing accompanying the upper trough to remain well
north of the warm sector which, in conjunction with the expected
very marginal thermodynamic environment, suggest any severe threat
will remain marginal at best.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: 5% - marginal
hail: <5% - none