U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

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Mañana
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acus01 kwns 181947 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 181945 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0145 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 


Valid 182000z - 191200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the 
contiguous United States. 


..20z update... 
A small general thunderstorm area has been added to parts of 
southwest TX, where a focused area of mid-level ascent is evident on 
visible satellite imagery ahead of a shortwave trough. Isolated 
lightning strikes may occur with this elevated convection mainly 
through the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, only minor adjustments 
have been made to the general thunderstorm area across central/East 
Texas for later this evening and overnight. 


A couple of low-topped thunderstorms have developed this afternoon 
off the Washington coast in a Post-frontal environment. Veered low-level 
flow and weak instability should continue to preclude a meaningful 
severe threat across this region. 


.Gleason.. 12/18/2018 


Previous discussion... /issued 1005 am CST Tue Dec 18 2018/ 


..western Washington... 
A powerful upper jet Max and associated surface cold front are 
moving ashore along the Washington coast, resulting in widespread 
precipitation. Several lightning strikes have been noted well 
offshore. Forecast soundings suggest the unstable layer will be 
sufficiently deep to support isolated lightning through much of the 
afternoon in vicinity of the Washington coastal ranges. There is a low 
potential for a lightning strike farther inland across Washington into ID, 
but that risk appears to be less than 10%. 


..southeast Texas... 
A second strong shortwave trough is digging southeastward across 
southern nm. Strengthening southerly low level winds ahead of the 
system will help to moisten/destabilize the air mass over southeast 
Texas. This will lead to increasing coverage of showers and a few 
embedded thunderstorms later tonight. No severe storms are 
expected. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 170704 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 170703 
mez000-nhz000-171300- 


Mesoscale discussion 1714 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0103 am CST Mon Dec 17 2018 


Areas affected...southern and eastern Maine 


Concerning...winter mixed precipitation 


Valid 170703z - 171300z 


Summary...snow, perhaps mixed with freezing rain or sleet, will 
remain possible through the overnight hours. 


Discussion...frontogenesis in the 850-700-millibar layer within the 
warm-conveyor belt has resulted in a band of heavy precipitation 
along the southeast coast of Maine. This band will continue to pivot 
northwest through the overnight hours. In the vicinity of this band, 
surface temperatures have fallen below 32f, despite rap forecasts 
suggesting temperatures would remain near or above 32f. Modifying 
the rap soundings for the observed colder surface temperatures, wet 
snow is likely, but given the strength of the warm-air advection 
within the warm-conveyor belt, temperatures within the 
850-700-millibar layer may approach, or even exceed, 0c. As such, 
precipitation may mix with, or change to, freezing rain or sleet 
overnight. 


.Marsh/Goss.. 12/17/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...car...gyx... 


Latitude...Lon 44197086 45246936 45826711 44936676 44246739 43256962 
43007082 44197086