U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

Hoy
Mañana
día tres

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Storm Prediction Center ac 251631 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1131 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017 


Valid 251630z - 261200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across eastern 
New Mexico... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of 
nm/far West Texas... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across New 
Mexico and the southern High Plains... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail are expected 
across parts of central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and 
evening. Isolated severe storms are possible elsewhere from southern 
Colorado to southern New Mexico and far West Texas. 


..nm/southern Colorado/far West Texas... 
A very moist air mass exists across the region today within a 
Post-frontal upslope flow regime reinforced by prior convective 
outflows. In fact, 12z radiosonde observation-observed precipitable water values are 
in the upper 5-15% of daily climatological values. A gradual 
thinning of prevalent low-level clouds has begun to occur across 
eastern nm as of late morning per visible satellite imagery and this 
same general trend will continue through the afternoon. Storms 
should initially develop near mountains/higher terrain of 
south-central Colorado and interior nm this afternoon. Heating/orographic 
lift aside, such development should be aided by a ridge-peripheral 
weak mid-level disturbance moving east/southeastward from northern 
Arizona into nm per water vapor imagery. 


Steep lapse rates/moderate buoyancy in the presence of 30-40 kt 
effective shear (especially across east-Central/Northeast nm) will 
some support initial supercells capable of large hail. Storms should 
gradually congeal, grow upscale, and progress south-southeastward 
through late afternoon into evening across eastern nm and eventually 
toward parts of far west TX, with a corresponding increase in 
damaging wind potential. 


..coastal GA/Carolinas... 
A few stronger storms could occur this afternoon within a moist 
environment near/east of the cold front, but the potential for 
organized/sustained storms currently appears low. 


.Guyer/Gleason.. 06/25/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 241942 
coz000-nmz000-242215- 


Mesoscale discussion 1147 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0242 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 


Areas affected...portions of nm and far south-central Colorado 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 241942z - 242215z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally 
damaging winds should persist through early evening. Watch issuance 
is unlikely. 


Discussion...beneath upper ridging centered over northern Mexico and 
the southwest, persistent weak low-level easterly flow across nm and 
south-central Colorado is encouraging initially isolated convective 
development across west-central nm. Additional thunderstorms are 
expected to develop across nm this afternoon aided by terrain-driven 
circulations. Visible satellite imagery shows almost total clearing 
along and west of the Central Mountain chain of nm, and temperatures 
have warmed into the 80s and lower 90s across lower terrain. Modest 
low-level moisture characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints 
is present across this region, and combined with steep mid-level 
lapse rates and diurnal heating, MLCAPE generally ranging 500-1000 
j/kg has developed. Although mid-level northwesterly winds weaken 
with southern extent across nm, there is sufficient mid-level flow 
to support mainly 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be 
sufficient to weakly organize thunderstorm updrafts, and isolated 
instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds may 
occur with any thunderstorms across this region through the 
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the early evening. 
There may be some potential for loosely organized convective 
clusters to develop and move southeastward across western/central 
nm, perhaps posing a slightly greater wind threat with time. 
Regardless, the overall severe threat will likely remain too 
isolated to warrant watch issuance due to the marginal 
thermodynamic/kinematic environment. 


.Gleason/guyer.. 06/24/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...pub...abq...epz... 


Latitude...Lon 33790887 34940870 35480805 37610505 37470418 36520402 
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