U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

Hoy
Mañana
día tres

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Storm Prediction Center ac 240045 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0745 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 


Valid 240100z - 241200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across eastern 
Georgia into southern South Carolina... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Central High plains... 


... 
A few strong storms may persist this evening across parts of eastern 
Georgia into southern South Carolina, as well as across the Central 
High plains. 


... 
Scattered storms persist over northern and eastern Georgia near a warm 
front and aided by daytime heating and a weak surface trough. 
Sufficient low-level shear would appear to favor supercells, but 
storms have shown little in the way of rotation. Vwps show veering 
but relatively weak low-level winds across central GA, while the 
stronger winds exist into SC where the air mass is much cooler and 
stable. Given the loss of heating and slow movement of the upper 
low, storms should gradually decrease this evening. Until then, a 
marginal wind or hail threat is most likely. For more information 
see mesoscale discussion 287. 


..Central High plains... 
A cluster of storms across southeast Wyoming into northeast Colorado may Post a 
marginal hail or wind risk this evening in association with a 
sagging positive-tilt upper trough and a cold front surging 
southeastward. Steep lapse rates aloft as seen on the 00z dnr 
sounding may support marginal hail, despite relatively little 
moisture content. Storms should dissipate across southwest NE into 
northwest Kansas in the capped air mass. 


.Jewell.. 04/24/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0287 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 


Areas affected...north-central and east-central Georgia 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 240039z - 240145z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...a couple of transient supercells are possible for the next 
1-2 hours. 


Discussion...radar data over the past couple of hours has shown a 
couple of storms intermittently showing weak rotation (i.E., Weak 
supercells). A sharp gradient in buoyancy is evident per the 00z 
Atlanta and Charleston, SC raobs with around 1500 j/kg MLCAPE to 100 
j/kg, respectively along the warm frontal zone. Conversely, much 
stronger low-level shear was evident at Charleston but considerably 
weaker at kclx VAD and the Atlanta radiosonde observation. The overlapping area in 
between Charleston and Atlanta is also where the storms have been 
most prone to exhibit weak cyclonic rotation (also with sidelobe 
contaminated velocities). The expectation for the next few hours is 
the possibility for an isolated gust may continue but diminishing 
boundary-layer instability will likely lead to a lowering 
strong/severe risk. 


.Smith/Thompson.. 04/24/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...chs...cae...ffc... 


Latitude...Lon 32088224 32998369 33198407 33638401 33578317 33188239 
32718169 32088224