U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

Hoy
Mañana
día tres

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Storm Prediction Center ac 230058 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0758 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 


Valid 230100z - 231200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the central/northern plains this evening... 


... 
A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the 
central/northern plains and the southeast this evening. 


..northern/Central Plains... 
Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a surface trough 
extending from the High Plains of eastern Colorado north/northeast 
to North Dakota. The largest overlap of favorable surface-based 
buoyancy and adequate effective shear exists across central Nebraska 
and South Dakota, and isolated severe supercells, capable of large 
hail and damaging winds, have organized in response. Modest 500mb 
westerlies and weak southerly flow from the surface through 850mb 
(noted in the 00z lbf sounding) are yielding south/southeasterly 
storm motions, which will gradually take cells away from large-scale 
ascent. In time, this evolution will combine with increasing 
inhibition to favor a downward intensity trend by early tonight. 


... 
A convective complex and its trailing stratiform region have 
stabilized much of the northern Florida Peninsula this evening. 
While an isolated damaging gust or two may occur near the Nature 
Coast, continued progression of outflow towards the southwest should 
further reduce the threat this evening. To the north, pockets of 
residual instability exist in southeast Georgia, generally where 
outflow/sea breeze has yet to pass. An isolated supercell or two may 
remain possible through late evening, given continued strong 
effective shear (around 40-45 kt from the kvax vwp). However, 
further stabilization of the boundary layer will keep the threat of 
damaging winds and large hail isolated at most. Lastly, a couple 
strong/severe storms may develop through the early overnight over 
southern Alabama and the western Florida Peninsula, owing to 
convergence along the surface front and subtle ascent within 
northwest flow. However, 00z regional raobs indicate dry air aloft 
will be tough to overcome on more than a very spotty basis within 
this weakly forced regime. 


.Picca.. 07/23/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 230122 
sdz000-nez000-230245- 


Mesoscale discussion 1140 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0822 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 


Areas affected...SD...NE 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305... 


Valid 230122z - 230245z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305 
continues. 


Summary...scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue along 
a corridor from central South Dakota into southwest NE for the next few hours. 


Discussion...scattered convection continues to remain concentrated 
along a surface front that is progressing slowly southeast across 
ww305. Strongest instability remains confined to roughly a 50mi wide 
corridor along/just east of the wind shift. Mrms data suggests large 
hail is common with the strongest updrafts, especially with the 
supercell that is digging south across Perkins County NE. Latest 
trends suggest convection will continue propagating south along this 
instability axis with hail remaining the primary threat. 


.Darrow.. 07/23/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...fsd...abr...lbf...unr... 


Latitude...Lon 41070185 45850024 45849776 41099954 41070185