U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

día tres

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Storm Prediction Center ac 141233 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0633 am CST Wed Nov 14 2018 

Valid 141300z - 151200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms are not expected today. 


A quick moving midlevel trough in the northern branch of a split jet 
will continue to move east into the Atlantic Ocean. In the trough's 
wake, a surface front is draped across the northern portion of the 
Florida Peninsula. Farther west, a closed low within the southern 
branch of the jetstream will deepen across Arkansas as it moves from 
near Texarkana to near the Missouri bootheel. As this midlevel low 
deepens, a weak surface low should develop across the northeast Gulf 
of Mexico this afternoon along the residual front. Although a truly 
closed surface circulation may not develop, increasingly westerly 
component of the low-level wind field on the cold side of the front 
will allow it to begin moving east toward the Florida Peninsula. 
This should increase low-level convergence along the front enough to 
support a few thunderstorms across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and 
eventually (potentially) across the northern Florida Peninsula. If 
confidence in land-based thunderstorms across the Northern Peninsula 
increases, a small window for strong thunderstorms may exist as 
modest instability and long, straight hodographs would support a 
marginal severe wind threat. However, given the anticipated time of 
day (late evening) and the bulk of the deep-layer flow parallel to 
the front, confidence in this scenario remains too low for 

Overnight, more robust surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur 
along the residual front over the coastal waters of southeast 
Georgia. In response to this cyclogenesis, the surface front should 
begin to lift northwest, approaching coastal areas of the Carolinas 
by Wednesday morning. Strengthening wind fields will result in a 
strongly sheared warm sector to the southeast of the front, posing a 
risk for supercell thunderstorms. However, at this time, it appears 
the warm sector should remain offshore until after at least 
12utc/7am EST on Thursday. 

.Marsh.. 11/14/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 131307 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 131306 

Mesoscale discussion 1644 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0706 am CST Tue Nov 13 2018 

Areas affected...northeastern Vermont into western Maine 

Concerning...heavy snow 

Valid 131306z - 131700z 

Summary...snowfall rates will increase this morning to between 1-2 
inches per hour across portions of northeastern Vermont into western 

Discussion...precipitation is ongoing across much of the northeast 
within a broad warm-air advection regime to the north of a 
developing mid-Atlantic cyclone and to the east of a midlevel 
trough. Within this warm-air advection regime, strong frontogenetic 
forcing in the lower troposphere is focused across southern New 
England. This will lift northward later this morning as the surface 
low moves northeast along the coast. Temperatures across northern 
Vermont and into Maine should remain cold enough to support snow as 
the predominant precipitation type through the day. Thus, as the 
higher precipitation rates associated with the lower-tropospheric 
frontogenetic forcing arrive, the result will be several hours of 
1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates, with higher rates possible on 
small space/time scales. Snowfall rates should begin to decrease 
this afternoon as the low begins to move away from the area. 

.Marsh.. 11/13/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


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