U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

día tres

acus01 kwns 161604 
Storm Prediction Center ac 161602 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1002 am CST sun Dec 16 2018 

Valid 161630z - 171200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. 

A deep upper trough and associated cold front will result in 
widespread precipitation from central California northward to the Pacific 
northwest through tonight. Instability will be very weak, but may be 
sufficient for the threat of a few lightning strikes, beginning near 
the Pacific northwest coast and spreading southward with time. 

A few lightning strikes will also be possible off of the New England 
coast this afternoon and evening in association with a closed low, 
with the primary threat expected to remain offshore. 

.Dean.. 12/16/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 142350 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 142350 

Mesoscale discussion 1711 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0550 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 

Areas affected...west-central Florida 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438... 

Valid 142350z - 150145z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 

Summary...severe risk continues for locally damaging winds gusts and 
perhaps a tornado across portions of west-central Florida within 

Discussion...the line of storms west of the Florida Peninsula 
continue to move slowly eastward with most of the line still 
offshore. Shear values (effective bulk shear of 45-60 knots) and 
hodographs with 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity per 
mesoanalysis/rap soundings remain supportive of embedded supercells 
and bowing segments. However, these features have yet to materialize 
within the line of storms. Subtle height falls aloft have helped 
maintain marginal buoyancy (500-1000 j/kg of mlcape) across the area 
even with the loss of insolation. As the storms continue slowly 
moving eastward, locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado 
remain possible through 03z across ww438. 

.Nauslar/Edwards.. 12/14/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 28338305 28708231 29078147 28748144 27888146 27628146 
27298219 26998279 26888308 27588309 28338305