Hurricane Jose

Last Updated: 9/20/2017, 9:00:00 AM (UTC)

  • Location: 38.4 N 70.3 W
  • Movement: NE at 7 mph
  • Wind: 65 mph
  • Pressure: 28.8 in

Select a report to view:

000 
WTNT42 KNHC 200842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows considerable decay of
yesterday afternoon's burst of deep convection near Jose's center.
An earlier GPM low-frequency microwave overpass revealed that the
strongest convection and associated winds were located in the north
and west periphery of of the cyclone's circulation, a wind pattern
indicative of non-tropical systems.  Based on the deteriorating
cloud pattern and a blend of the latest subjective T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt.  Jose has
begun its movement north of the Gulf Stream's north wall and over
decreasing oceanic temperatures.  Subsequent CIMSS shear analysis
and the SHIPS model indicate modest southwesterly shear undercutting
the outflow aloft.  These inhibiting factors should result in
additional weakening, and the official forecast calls for Jose to
become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 040/7 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or
philosophy.  The large-scale models continue to agree on Jose
decreasing in forward speed and gradually turning toward the east on
Thursday morning in response to a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the eastern Canadian provinces.  Through
the remainder of the forecast period, high pressure is expected to
build over the northeast U.S. and adjacent waters, causing Jose to
drift southward and southwestward through the 72 hour period.  After
that time, the cyclone is expected to basically meander in the
northwest Atlantic within the weak steering flow produced by the
aforementioned high pressure to the northwest of the cyclone and a
building mid-level ridge to the southeast.  The NHC forecast a
little slower at days 4 and 5 and closely follows the GFS/ECMWF
(GFEX) consensus and the forecast input from NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday.  This
rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 38.4N  70.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 39.1N  69.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 39.2N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/0600Z 38.9N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0600Z 39.2N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0600Z 39.5N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Learn more about Hurricane Jose and the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Sep 05
15:00 GMT
12.3°
-39.1°
40 mph 1008 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 05
21:00 GMT
12.5°
-40.6°
45 mph 1006 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 06
03:00 GMT
12.3°
-41.7°
50 mph 1004 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 06
09:00 GMT
12.5°
-42.8°
60 mph 1002 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 06
15:00 GMT
13.1°
-44.5°
70 mph 998 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 06
21:00 GMT
13.9°
-45.8°
75 mph 994 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 07
03:00 GMT
14.4°
-47.5°
85 mph 989 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 07
09:00 GMT
14.8°
-49.1°
90 mph 986 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 07
15:00 GMT
14.9°
-50.6°
90 mph 986 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 07
18:00 GMT
15.2°
-51.4°
105 mph 978 mb
Hurricane
2
Sep 07
21:00 GMT
15.5°
-52.4°
120 mph 966 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
00:00 GMT
15.6°
-53.2°
120 mph 966 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
00:10 GMT
15.6°
-53.2°
120 mph 966 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
03:00 GMT
15.6°
-53.9°
120 mph 966 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
06:00 GMT
15.8°
-54.4°
120 mph 966 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
09:00 GMT
16.0°
-55.3°
125 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
12:00 GMT
16.1°
-56.2°
125 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 08
14:00 GMT
16.2°
-56.9°
150 mph 942 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 08
15:00 GMT
16.3°
-57.1°
150 mph 942 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 08
18:00 GMT
16.4°
-57.7°
150 mph 940 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 08
21:00 GMT
16.6°
-58.3°
150 mph 940 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
00:00 GMT
16.7°
-58.8°
150 mph 938 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
03:00 GMT
16.9°
-59.3°
155 mph 938 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
06:00 GMT
17.2°
-59.6°
150 mph 940 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
09:00 GMT
17.5°
-60.3°
150 mph 940 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
12:00 GMT
17.8°
-60.7°
145 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
15:00 GMT
18.3°
-61.3°
145 mph 945 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
18:00 GMT
18.8°
-61.9°
145 mph 945 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 09
21:00 GMT
19.2°
-62.4°
145 mph 945 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
00:00 GMT
19.4°
-62.9°
145 mph 945 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
03:00 GMT
19.8°
-63.4°
130 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
06:00 GMT
20.4°
-64.0°
130 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
09:00 GMT
20.8°
-64.5°
130 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
12:00 GMT
21.2°
-65.3°
130 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
15:00 GMT
21.7°
-65.8°
130 mph 944 mb
Hurricane
4
Sep 10
21:00 GMT
22.8°
-66.9°
120 mph 956 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 11
03:00 GMT
23.7°
-68.1°
115 mph 962 mb
Hurricane
3
Sep 11
09:00 GMT
24.4°
-68.6°
105 mph 968 mb
Hurricane
2
Sep 11
15:00 GMT
25.5°
-69.1°
105 mph 968 mb
Hurricane
2
Sep 11
21:00 GMT
26.4°
-69.2°
100 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
2
Sep 12
03:00 GMT
27.1°
-69.5°
85 mph 982 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 12
09:00 GMT
27.5°
-69.0°
75 mph 987 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 12
15:00 GMT
27.5°
-68.3°
75 mph 987 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 12
21:00 GMT
27.6°
-67.4°
75 mph 987 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 13
03:00 GMT
26.5°
-66.4°
75 mph 985 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 13
09:00 GMT
26.1°
-66.0°
75 mph 985 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 13
15:00 GMT
25.5°
-65.6°
75 mph 985 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 13
21:00 GMT
25.3°
-65.6°
75 mph 988 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 14
03:00 GMT
25.2°
-66.0°
80 mph 985 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 14
09:00 GMT
25.1°
-66.5°
75 mph 986 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 14
15:00 GMT
24.9°
-66.6°
70 mph 989 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 14
21:00 GMT
25.2°
-67.3°
70 mph 989 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 15
03:00 GMT
25.5°
-68.0°
70 mph 989 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 15
09:00 GMT
25.9°
-68.7°
70 mph 989 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 15
15:00 GMT
26.5°
-69.4°
70 mph 989 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 15
21:00 GMT
27.1°
-70.3°
75 mph 983 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 16
03:00 GMT
27.4°
-71.0°
80 mph 983 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 16
09:00 GMT
27.9°
-71.8°
80 mph 983 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 16
15:00 GMT
28.8°
-72.2°
80 mph 982 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 16
21:00 GMT
28.9°
-71.9°
80 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 17
03:00 GMT
29.2°
-71.8°
80 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 17
09:00 GMT
30.0°
-71.7°
80 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 17
15:00 GMT
31.0°
-71.9°
90 mph 967 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 17
21:00 GMT
31.5°
-71.8°
90 mph 967 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
00:00 GMT
31.9°
-71.7°
90 mph 972 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
03:00 GMT
32.2°
-71.6°
90 mph 972 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
06:00 GMT
32.6°
-71.6°
90 mph 972 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
09:00 GMT
33.0°
-71.4°
85 mph 974 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
12:00 GMT
33.5°
-71.2°
85 mph 976 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
15:00 GMT
33.9°
-71.1°
75 mph 977 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
18:00 GMT
34.2°
-71.0°
75 mph 977 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 18
21:00 GMT
34.8°
-71.1°
75 mph 977 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
00:00 GMT
34.8°
-71.5°
75 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
03:00 GMT
35.2°
-71.3°
75 mph 975 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
06:00 GMT
35.6°
-71.3°
75 mph 971 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
09:00 GMT
36.0°
-71.3°
75 mph 971 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
12:00 GMT
36.3°
-71.6°
75 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
15:00 GMT
36.5°
-71.7°
75 mph 976 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
18:00 GMT
36.9°
-71.5°
75 mph 976 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 19
21:00 GMT
37.2°
-71.3°
75 mph 976 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 20
00:00 GMT
37.5°
-71.2°
75 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
1
Sep 20
03:00 GMT
37.9°
-70.8°
70 mph 973 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 20
06:00 GMT
38.2°
-70.5°
70 mph 973 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Sep 20
09:00 GMT
38.4°
-70.3°
65 mph 975 mb
Tropical Storm
-
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