Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT en Abril 01, 2008

A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."

Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."

Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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108. hahaguy
5:05 PM EST on April 01, 2008
the one thing i hate about an impacting hurricane is the calm before the storm. i dont mind the quietness but just knowing something is coming really aggrivates me.
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2886
107. Drakoen
9:38 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
106. pottery 9:37 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Drak, so there is no way to see the altitude of the dust at a given time, ie now ?

Not that I know of.
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106. pottery
5:35 PM AST on April 01, 2008
Drak, so there is no way to see the altitude of the dust at a given time, ie now ?
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
105. Drakoen
9:28 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
104. pottery 9:26 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Drakoen, the SAL images that show the Sahara dust on the visible sat. , do you know how to detirmine the HEIGHT of the dust ?? Thanks.

The dust usually resides in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It really depends on how dense the SAL is coming of Africa. SAL can reach from about 5,000ft-20,000ft.
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104. pottery
5:22 PM AST on April 01, 2008
Drakoen, the SAL images that show the Sahara dust on the visible sat. , do you know how to detirmine the HEIGHT of the dust ?? Thanks.
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
103. Altestic
9:23 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Shear will be teh king for a long time in the tatl.
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102. Drakoen
9:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Upper level analysis shows why the upper level winds are so high currently in the upper central Atlantic. A deep upper level trough behind as surface cold front has managed to sink all the way down into the Caribbean. Strong upper level flow on the east side in the positive earth vorticity, is allowing for the transport of moisture upper wards from South America.
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101. FLWeatherFreak91
5:10 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
Wow, lot's of thunderstorms are gettin' going in fl
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100. Patrap
4:08 PM CDT on April 01, 2008

Your Chart matches this chart....

Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 145036
99. Weather456
5:00 PM AST on April 01, 2008


An upper level high centered over the Eastern Pacific at 13N/95W is supporting mid-upper level ridging and a stable airmass over Mexico and the Western Gulf. Visible imagery and surface observations depicts a frontal boundary extending from the Central Texas Gulf Coast across Louisiana/Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley and to the Atlantic Coast. Widespread scattered cloudiness and showers covers the area in association with this feature. The western extent of a surface high over the Atlantic is maintaining ridging and fair weather with light-moderate easterly flow across the Gulf. Seas will be 4-5 ft in easterly swells with buoys and ship reports in the Central Gulf showing 5-7 ft swells.

A line of multilayer cloudiness and showers is seen extending from the Florida Peninsula and along the coastal waters of the Eastern United States to 35N/70W. This activity appears to associated with the sea breeze enhanced by upper diffluence over the Peninsula, and mid-upper level moisture enhanced by speed convergence at the surface over the coastal waters.

Meanwhile, QuikSCAT and surface observations show a strong 1034 mb high centered near 34N/60W. Visible animation shows pronounced surface rotation across much of the Atlantic with extensive low level stratocumulus clouds rotating in and around the influence of this ridge.

Further south, upper level instability associated with a upper trough across the Caribbean along with daytime heating is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Southern Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola. This feature is discussed more in detailed under the Caribbean header.


Very stable conditions over the Western Caribbean and Central America as a result of strong confluent flow between the upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific and a upper trough across the Central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a pronounce upper trough digs across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean to 10N/80W. The divergence ahead of the trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Southern Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola. Additional showers are seen over the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage where the upper trough is supporting a surface trough or perturbation along 68W. Surface trades should be on the breezy side across the Eastern Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high and Caribbean surface trough. Light to moderate trades elsewhere. Mariners should expected easterly swells of 6-7 ft towards 80W, decreasing to 3-4 ft beyond.

by W456

GOMEX Analysis through 2130 UTC with a front drawn based on wind shifts.

WATL Analysis through 2130 UTC showing a well define surface high.

Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
98. weatherfromFlorida
9:03 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
5. Altestic 9:02 PM GMT on April 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
Hey check out Youtube's predictions for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

First for the Harry Potter Trailer, now this. again I have been Astley'd!
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97. Patrap
3:58 PM CDT on April 01, 2008
I still say we should name all Canes after Godzilla Foes from Japanese 60s Movies..

Hurricane Rodan is Now within sight of the
Florida Coastline..

Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 145036
96. all4hurricanes
8:59 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Wait greek names must be an aprils fool joke
and even if it was an actual prediction the past two years have been several storms (and hurricanes) short of the prediction
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94. earthlydragonfly
8:59 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Good one Doctor. LOL
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93. pottery
4:56 PM AST on April 01, 2008
Kris @ 453, thanks for that link.
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92. SouthernLady
3:58 PM CDT on April 01, 2008

Thanks Dr. Masters...Happy April Fools to you too.
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91. weathermanwannabe
4:57 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
86. Patrap 4:52 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
How Bizarre?..Link
.....Takes me back to the 80's; this one is almost as bad as Flock of Seagulls.......Ouch
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14390
90. Drakoen
8:57 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
89. weatherboykris 8:55 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Hurricane season will be very lively this year, we may even see greek names again.

Give me a break.

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89. weatherboykris
8:53 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Hurricane season will be very lively this year, we may even see greek names again.

Give me a break.
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88. all4hurricanes
8:49 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Hey don't they release the retired storms around now i want to know if Dean is just another Emily and if Noel is another Gordon (1994) or did I just miss the retired storm names?

Altestic greek names? thats a little extreme dont you think I dont think predictions ever went up that high until mid 2005 what happens if greek names run out
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87. weatherboykris
8:51 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Speaking of the ITCZ, NOAA begins its seasonal monitoring of its latitude now. Expect the first update in ten days HERE.
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86. Patrap
3:50 PM CDT on April 01, 2008
How Bizarre?..Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 145036
85. Drakoen
8:50 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
The ITCZ belt is still way down there close to the equator, which is normal for this time of year. I wouldn't count out the SAL just yet. RAMSDIS imagery shows a big vortex of the coast of Africa bring that SAL of the coast. One of the reasons why the SAL isn't advancing is because of these big surface cold fronts as well as some non-tropical lows that basically sweep everything back.
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84. Altestic
8:48 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
60 days until the start of the season and even now you have to watch for subbies to form


don't worry about the Carribean now it's not that time of year and shear is king. The water will warm up to above average by the time the season rolls around. The gulf has yet to warm however.


Hurricane season will be very lively this year, we may even see greek names again.

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83. weatherboykris
8:50 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
81. pottery 8:47 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
.... er, when the Caribbean temps heat up you STOP worrying ??!!??

Hey...what can we say?
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82. weathermanwannabe
4:43 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
As mentioned by Drak earlier, water temps will not be huge issue for the beginning of the season as they are plenty warm already in parts of the tropics (but other factors may), and, the mild La Nina conditions may enhance some of the rain chances for the SE/Southern US; given the fact that drought is always a huge issue for many parts of the US as we head into Summer, I would welcome plenty of rain for the drought stricken areas (and less rain for the flood stricken areas)....Unfortunately, Mother Nature does not always cooperate with what we really need/don't need.............
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81. pottery
4:44 PM AST on April 01, 2008
.... er, when the Caribbean temps heat up you STOP worrying ??!!??
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
80. weatherboykris
8:44 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Also I wouldn't worry too much about the Caribbean temps they are already showing signs of heating up.

Exactly. With the Sun directly overhead, and no more cold fronts this year it will be cooking in a few weeks.
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79. pottery
4:39 PM AST on April 01, 2008
........bazaar weather ??
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
78. weatherbro
8:34 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
This is bazaar weather for the southern two-thirds of the east coast. A few popcorn storms in Florida and Georgia(coast). Heck dewpoints are well into the 60's as far north as southern New England.
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77. AWeatherLover
8:29 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
whoever mentioned seabreeze storm was right on. Pouring harder than I've seen in a while. Lots of lightning. Possibly enough for a severe warning, IMO. Dont have my anemometer with me but winds are shaking my car a lot and I'm parked.
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75. pottery
4:18 PM AST on April 01, 2008
Loads of rain/showers along the ITCZ, all the way across the Atl. The Sahara Dust cloud is not advancing West now, and we need to keep watching these 2 features as the next 60 days or so go by. As the Trop. Waves start to get organised and exit Africa, these 2 features will play a huge role in what happens to them. ( other factors apply as well, of course ).
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
74. Michfan
8:22 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
That was a great read. LAWL.
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73. Drakoen
8:18 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
I will be doing my seasonal outlook it May for anyone thats interested.

Also I wouldn't worry too much about the Caribbean temps they are already showing signs of heating up.
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72. pottery
4:07 PM AST on April 01, 2008
Gotta love this crazy place.
April 1 st gave us some nice showers overnight and this morning.
And some of the clearest blue sky I've seen in a while.
All is well, so far........
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27193
71. Patrap
3:08 PM CDT on April 01, 2008
Is this some Kind of College Fraternity Prank?.. Hmmmmm?

Im thinking double secret probation.
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70. LowerCal
1:00 PM PDT on April 01, 2008
LMBO! Hope you got as many laughs putting it together Dr. Masters. :^D
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68. all4hurricanes
7:42 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
doesn't that beat antidisestablishmentarianism as the longest word
Nature played Aprils fools on us the day started with rain then turned to a 70 degree perfectly sunny day in moments

I think there is a hurricane forming west of Australia
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67. NEwxguy
7:38 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
23,that article just points out depending on which expert you listen to,it could be an active season or we get off easy again.
I love this comment:

I think we're going to get some storms, but we got hit too many years back to back, so we should get off easy," said Maria Otero, chief of U.S. Customs and Border Patrol Protection in Miami.

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66. NEwxguy
7:33 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
You never know what your going to read on April Fool's Day,gotta love those long commutes
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65. hurricane23
3:32 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
Hurricane experts fear intense season.
Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13873
64. catfuraplenty
7:28 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
I can't wait to see the wonderful results! I think it's a grand result of innovating thinking and American ingenuity. :P

The Cat

Oh, have you gotten your seeds for musical carrots yet? I'm thinking about getting some from an organic store.
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63. HurricaneGeek
3:20 PM EDT on April 01, 2008

Dr. Jasters! :-)
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62. sandiquiz
7:20 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
This is wonderful, I read it all.... just to enjoy the word-play you used:))

And a happy "April the first" to you Dr Masters.

(And thanks for all the time you must have taken to formulate this wonderful blog header):)
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61. Skyepony (Mod)
7:14 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Very good. It's about time this was all settled & even better I was right. How about a link to an internet site for some cycloactive drugs?
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59. sngalla
2:07 PM EDT on April 01, 2008
A Classic, Dr Masters!
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58. Starwoman
7:47 PM CEST on April 01, 2008
I never have laughed so much reading a blog von Dr. Masters!!
My children came to ask what was the matter... *gg*

Thank you for your 1 April input.
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