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Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson , 5:04 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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893. azucas
6:35 AM GMT en Marzo 28, 2015
Quoting 885. JohnLonergan:





Without that "minor" trace gas the global temperature would be about 255 Kelvin or about -18 C.

Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
892. azucas
6:33 AM GMT en Marzo 28, 2015
BTW, if you ever get over the papal only thing, I will be very happy to rejoin.
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891. azucas
6:31 AM GMT en Marzo 28, 2015
Too many misconceptions to deal with at once, but the current pattern is totally the female baby with the aberrant accumulation of warm water off western North America probably due to the lack of upwelling resulting from an eastward displacement of "the wave". Normally this is called the "Hawaiian High" because it occupies the center of the Pacific on average. If you believe human Carbon dioxide is causing this, please show your work.
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890. PatrioticThinking
7:59 PM GMT en Marzo 05, 2015
Well its snowing balls of Modified snow again, dont eat the white snow either lol, Teslas theorys at work again , ahh I mean nexrads theorys ... keep an eye out for the circles in the radar when there is no blue and there should be its because of induced Hz into the strato and ionoshere and it does change the weather pattern for that area within the circumference of there new nexrad stations. Same reason the airforce/navy has built over 40 floating platforms for control in other areas of the world. Haarp And Daarpa. Are no longer the new norm its now utilized differently !!
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889. Nickon
7:01 PM GMT en Febrero 28, 2015
Crock of bull!
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888. chrisd3
4:19 PM GMT en Febrero 27, 2015
One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus

No, it didn't, which makes me wonder why people continue to use the word "hiatus":

hiatus (n.): a period of time when something ... is stopped

Why not just call it a slowdown, or a slowdown in atmospheric warming? "Hiatus" gives entirely the wrong impression.
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887. vis0
10:40 AM GMT en Febrero 27, 2015

Quoting 724. sar2401:

LOL. How appropriate. Mine was "Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!" by Vaughn Monroe and his Orchestra. Sure worked for today for north Alabama. So, Vis, what did the ml-d have to do with today's weather? Pretty wild stuff, and most of it wasn't on the radar, so to speak.
very late reply, just noticed my first question eva (ever) in the 10/18yrs i've been posting on wxu either on  the ml-d or what could happen if one could influence weather from the NE. i've ended my Galacsic Teachings and slowly cutting down my blogging activities (outside USofA just 'bout ended those blogs, WxU is very hard to quit once you start blogging not 'cause of the blog but its top quality members). In respect to SAR2401 a reply::
http://youtu.be/shV-buby5LI



As to ml-d as you know (: - P) SAR2401 we just went through a period of  about 14 days  i call "2WkAnom" ijn which anything that uses/taps into the "area" of space that is grounded in Galacsucs becomes "powered down" to only 33% of its MAX. Therefore the ml-d was powered down NATURALLY. From the ~21st of February for a 3 day period the planet went through an assimilation period  for the physical dimension to assimilate the next (new) Galacsics influence. YET natural influences of Galacsics DO NOT GO ABOVE 33% within the physical dimension, therefore its not detectable via simple physics (sprites are one example, not the soda Patrap someone get him a fresca) BUT the ml-d raises that Galacsics influence to 99% and reintroduces the "energy" at desired settings, which since 2009/10 is set to add 2 times the precipitation, H. winds & v. winds via the ml-d influence X each individual ml-d Area Of Influence percentage.  Since we just started to have the ml-d powered back up NATURALLY and the assimilation period ended ~24th you saw the ml-d begin to reintroduce its push-pull influence on attracting the stronger Jet towards it and since both the northern jets & southern Jets are strong (as we enter spring) they came together over ~Fl. to Ga. hence those surprise Jet streaks that came from Mexico/Tex/GoMx over Florida. AGAIN the ml-d does not create nor bring all weather to NYC it push-pull via nature more precip & the 2 main types of winds from above/below & from across and the more potential energy the more they are attracted towards  (NOT bring to) the ml-d and you saw how those influences kept regenerating almost 2 times faster than expected to create more rain, move it further northward & more winds, Hope SAR24012 read the how to add more light without raising your electric bill idea & adding more  water to your plants without raising your water bill ideas one on this page the light idea on a previous blogbyte of Dr. Masters. i recommend one Take 2 aspirins & see the physiologist, INjoy
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886. vis0
11:02 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015

Quoting 847. sar2401:

Your caps lock key is stuck.

There's also the outside chance we could get that clouds and trumpets thing on June 1 also. That would really disrupt hurricane season.
Sorry SAR2401 "Trumpet thing" happened ~1989ish is one searchs when 2 astronomers in San Fransisco found the first Earth like planets where did they find them? between an array of stars that SYMBOLICALLY (a parable where such is concerned) look like trumpets and a reign of specifically angled**  light.

**(angels i state are a form of angled boson light with knowledge embedded within which can or cannot be from past beings "soul-spirit" energies that can be be picked apart via deep meditation.  Remember here on WxU and youtube ~2010/11 (on About.com/sci as "espyther in the late 1990s) i posted as to boson light BEFORE the "god particle" and i state it is not the "god particle" but a very important temporary bridge to Galacsics,
Deep stuff hey?!, and i'm a housekeeper & have a degree in being a nut ...BSBS?)
WEATHER::
Today's weather will happen tomorrow while tomorrow's happened yesterday.
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885. JohnLonergan
9:18 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015

Quoting 882. NativeSun:

Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?



Without that "minor" trace gas the global temperature would be about 255 Kelvin or about -18 C.
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884. CuriousAboutClimate
8:23 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 882. NativeSun:

Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?


Those trace gases have exerted a radiative forcing on our climate that is 10x the change in radiative forcing from the sun. That trace gas sustains the terrestrial greenhouse effect.
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883. NativeSun
8:13 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
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882. NativeSun
8:00 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 832. CuriousAboutClimate:



Occam's razor, jpsb. Why suggest additional, as-yet-unidentified factors to try to explain something that is already explained perfectly well by the current observational data? Plurality should not be posited without necessity. By the way, the cosmic ray hypothesis is essentially dead

"A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming."
Link

"Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century."
Link

"Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming."
Link
Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?
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881. LargoFl
7:36 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF AN...CENTRAL
MARYLAND...NORTHERN MARYLAND...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS MAY COAT THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$
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880. Grothar
7:25 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.


And 365 more days of insults.
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879. ricderr
6:51 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well.

aside from the blog experts" most mets are expressing the idea that enso conditions ares going to quickly tank the next 60 days
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878. StormTrackerScott
6:50 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 876. weathermanwannabe:

The point below as to below-average numbers for February tornadoes so far is a valid one; the deep arctic air drops into the South and Mid-West this year has keep the air in the plains colder and a bit more stable and the Gulf flow has not yet been able to make a dent in the Winter there (not even close yet). Can't trust the long-term models to nail down the timing but Spring will come, eventually, to the Plains and the warmer Gulf flow will be able work it's way up.

No idea what the tornado outlook will be down the road; just noting that a quiet February could give way to a really active April and May but I am not sure what March will bring on this front.


How about March as it looks very dangerous next week across the Mid South. Looking at some of these models and the moisture in flow from the Gulf of 1.5 to 1.8" along with a strong jet aloft could give way to our first real severe weather outbreak of 2015.
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877. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:48 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
876. weathermanwannabe
6:48 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
The point below as to below-average numbers for February tornadoes so far is a valid one; the deep arctic air drops into the South and Mid-West this year has keep the air in the plains colder and a bit more stable and the Gulf flow has not yet been able to make a dent in the Winter there (not even close yet). Can't trust the long-term models to nail down the timing but Spring will come, eventually, to the Plains and the warmer Gulf flow will be able work it's way up.

No idea what the tornado outlook will be down the road; just noting that a quiet February could give way to a really active April and May but I am not sure what March will bring on this front.
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875. ScottLincoln
6:35 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 829. Naga5000:



Dr. Soon's work was garbage to begin with, before he published unethically, and my statement about pseudo scientific garbage was regarding the sun as being the main driver of climate, which it clearly isn't. Cosmic rays and clouds don't fit

"Benestad (2013) compared cosmic ray flux to global surface temperature changes and found "there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming." In fact, since 1990, galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth has increased - "the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures" (Lockwood 2007). In fact, cosmic ray on flux recently reached record levels. According to Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, "In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years." Erlykin et al. (2013)"

and

"Numerous studies have also investigated the effectiveness of GCRs in cloud formation (the third step). Kazil et al. (2006) found:

"the variation of ionization by galactic cosmic rays over the decadal solar cycle does not entail a response...that would explain observed variations in global cloud cover."

Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) found:

"we estimate that less than 23%, at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle changes in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays."

Kristjansson et al. (2008) found:

"no statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and GCR"

Calogovic et al. (2010) found:

"no response of global cloud cover to Forbush decreases at any altitude and latitude."

Kulmala et al. (2010) found

"galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well."

Laken et al. (2013) found

"there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds."

Krissansen-Totton & Davies (2013) found

"no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations"

In the CERN CLOUD experiments, Almeida et al. (2013) found

"ionising radiation such as the cosmic radiation that bombards the atmosphere from space has negligible influence on the formation rates of these particular aerosols [that form clouds]"
"

So, yeah, pseudo science garbage. I stand by my words.

So much time and money wasted to respond/rebut to these cosmic rays hypotheses. It's disgraceful.
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874. StormTrackerScott
6:33 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 839. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch us get a La Ni%uFFFDa . :P


Yeah good luck with that. Wont see that happen with the PDO hitting monthly records recently also combine that with this growing warm pool which has already brought anomalies to 1.3C across Nino 4 and .8C across Nino 3.4. I think some are holding onto straws as they know things don't look good at all for a active hurricane season I suspect numbers in the 8 to 9 range.

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873. Xyrus2000
6:33 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 830. Naga5000:



I choose Thor, he promised to rid the world of Ice Giants...I don't see any Ice Giants around. Checkmate.


Thor's a good choice. You know where you stand with Thor. But, I wouldn't trust God, not after all the crap he's pulled. Better than Zeus though, at least around women. God only got one young girl pregnant. Zeus basically could repopulate a small nation with all his philandering. :D
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872. ScottLincoln
6:31 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 804. DCSwithunderscores:



Yes, clearly it has been trending downward. Notice how often the red curve is below the black line after say 2000 compared to before 2000, especially compared to near the beginning of the period shown.

You could probably find a graph that shows it better, in which that red curve is expanded vertically, and in which a trend line is shown.

The decline in arctic sea ice volume is even more dramatic than the decline in arctic sea ice area.

Of course there's also the fact that volume means way more than area. But if we want to talk area...


~1980-2012

Missing two years but the trends are similar.
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871. vis0
6:29 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015

Quoting 835. weathermanwannabe:

Anyone have any thoughts on how the Spring tornado season will pan out over the next few months? We know that the biggest "boom" for the Mid-West comes with strong warm Gulf flow colliding with the cooler air from late-Winter fronts entering the Plains from the Rockies. Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well. Too early to know what the transition pattern will fall into from Spring to Summer (it could change from the current one) but I remember our Blogger "Levi" making some good correlations (which I believe he presented to SPC a few years ago) on one of the Pacific indicators with some correlations to tornado season.

Would love to hear from Levi on his thoughts on this issue for the coming few months.
My worry comes from the crazy science i type of, w/o getting into that portion, if the southern Jet(s) do as they are doing presently (saw jet streaks in Sat loops also was posted by a WxU member) as to inject into the northern jet bringing a stream of cooler air from the North, my worry is more the the entire eastern half to third of the UsofA for the next 50-54 days as "something" (that's right SAR2401) continues to attract the northern Jet towards the mason dixen line but nature wants to inject some southern JET towards the same area which equal lots of energy for LOWs/Fronts to tap from.
This storm (Feb 25th-26th 2015 in SE of USofA) that some call a "bust" really wasn't AS TO THE STORM (prediction where off yesterday as to rain amount & today (last nite) as to precipitation  type,  AS TO THE STORM it "wound up" with lots of energy coming down as it went off shore. 
Imagine if these LOWs wind up while over the SE heading N/NE/ENE.
Lets observe what nature serves...
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870. georgevandenberghe
6:21 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 858. PlazaRed:

Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
It was the coldest day for that day. IE 25th of Feb ever recorded for the zone. ( KOTG,) will know for sure.
So cold it hurt my checks to try and breath in the wind which made it feel like - 30/C or worse, my eyes stated to feel like they were full of sand and my ears lost their feeling.
Then I got on the plane to Paris!
There the weather was virtually zero visibility and raining with a comfortable +6/C which was to say the least almost tropical after 9 days of around minus 15/C or worse.
I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. +21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies.

So the blog is about global warming, well that's one day of transportation warming from the great lakes at about:-
43.7000° N, 79.4000° W.
To Malaga Spain:-
36.7194° N, 4.4200° W.

+7 degrees in Latitude and +41/C in temperature.
Sort of makes you think a bit if you have time too like I do!

I know we will have the goon show on with the twits on about "gulf streams and jet streams"( not to mention, IQ streams!) but as I said before, It sort of makes you think a bit about how diverse this planet is!

Here's a photo I took last week on Wednesday. Standard tourist Niagara Falls shot:-


Here's Here, a couple of degrees north of Malaga about now!
Diverse planet?
Think about it.





December 18, 1983. Left MSP -23F. Landed at FMY +83F and humid.

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869. Xyrus2000
6:19 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 823. jpsb:



Your argument, at least as I understand it, is that the only influence the Sun has on Earth's climate can be measured in watt per meter squared at the top on the atmosphere. I disagree, I think the interact between the Earth and the Sun is far more complex and that we have much more to learn. Dr Soon work on comic rays and cloud formation being one area of interest.


Dr. Soon's work was thoroughly discredited and debunked almost before the ink was even dry. In addition, his work is now in disgrace in light of unethical practices that have recently been discovered.

Skeptical Science has a good summary including a dozen or so papers that give the whole GCR hypothesis a thorough academic spanking.

Unless you have some publishable revolutionary new science/evidence that can revitalize the GCR argument, it's a dead issue.

At this point there is no evidence that suggests that there is another significant and as yet unknown extra-terrestrial factor affecting the Earth's climate. If you have some, by all means publish it and get it reviewed.

Re putting words into your mouth. You described as "pseudo scientific garbage" NativeSun's conjecture that the Sun effects Earth climate. I am merely offering my support to his conjecture which I do not think is "pseudo scientific garbage ".


Unless you have a credible source, then it is garbage. Discredited and disgraced science do not make for good supporting evidence.

To be clear, people like myself, Naga, Neo etc. don't WANT climate change to be real. Nor do the scientists. In fact, we'd all be quite happy if someone would come forth with some mind blowing science that showed without doubt that global warming/climate change isn't happening. We're screwed up enough as it is as a race. Why the hell would we want to also add the portent of global climate induced disasters on top of that?

The problem is no has come even close to producing such mind blowing science (even if there was some it would be difficult to find considering the endless waterfall of idiotic garbage that comes from science deniers and FUD machines). However, every contrarian piece I've ever read (and I do read them even if they're links to Anthony TWatts) basically falls flat on it's face in the opening paragraphs, usually by violating some basic and/or fundamental physical principle such as the thermodynamics and/or conservation of energy. No point in reading on after that, and also why any papers that contain such glaring errors wind up straight in the circular filing cabinet.
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868. georgevandenberghe
6:17 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 866. win1gamegiantsplease:



Which is why I either crack jokes, make commentary on family habits, otherwise shut my yap when I'm at the table on holidays.


One teen is a tea partier, one teen is a socialist and the third is somewhere in the middle.

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867. georgevandenberghe
6:15 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
2" of powder in DC today. All done and I've told the kids to shovel the walk. After a highly anomalous day of full duration school yesterday, the pattern reverted to the more typical one for this season and schools were closed today.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
866. win1gamegiantsplease
6:12 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 862. Naga5000:



No apology needed, that was funny. :) I will never forget when I told her I was presenting a paper on science denial and she asked me if climate change was "really real"...on that note, Christmas dinner discussions are a blast at her place.


Which is why I either crack jokes, make commentary on family habits, otherwise shut my yap when I'm at the table on holidays.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
865. PedleyCA
6:09 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Alhaurin De La Torre, Malaga (PWS)
Updated: 7:03 PM CET on February 26, 2015
Partly Cloudy
65.8 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 36 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 7.6 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 360 ft

Good to see you made it back in one piece and have defrosted fully......
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
864. barbamz
6:07 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 858. PlazaRed:
Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
.... (snip] I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. 21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies. ...

Plaza, our man "Who Came In from the Cold", lol. Welcome back in good old well tempered Europe! Hope your job abroad went smoothly.


Weather forecast for Jerez/southern Spain (Celsius). Already summerlike! I'm envious as models predict some days of "March winter" for Germany next week :-(
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
863. georgevandenberghe
6:07 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.


Somewhere else, some other time :-(

Had a half cord of firewood delivered 2/17. Went through half of it in a week!

Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
862. Naga5000
5:55 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 846. sar2401:

At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)


No apology needed, that was funny. :) I will never forget when I told her I was presenting a paper on science denial and she asked me if climate change was "really real"...on that note, Christmas dinner discussions are a blast at her place.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
861. HurrMichaelOrl
5:50 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 820. georgevandenberghe:



Only for some of us. :-(

97F in Cuba, sheesh! I don't mind pleasant spring temps, but I would just assume the 85F + weather hold off for another month or two.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
860. wxgeek723
5:48 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Not sure if it was posted already

Mysterious East Coast flooding caused by unprecedented surge in sea level
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859. Climate175
5:45 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 854. TimTheWxMan:




What warm-up?


The warm up Keep was talking about, the GFS was showing it, although it is 10 days away we shall see, Spring is still 23 days away no matter what and the temps are still going to rise as Spring progresses once it get's here. The CPC maps change many times as do the models, so it is a wait and see.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
858. PlazaRed
5:45 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
It was the coldest day for that day. IE 25th of Feb ever recorded for the zone. ( KOTG,) will know for sure.
So cold it hurt my checks to try and breath in the wind which made it feel like - 30/C or worse, my eyes stated to feel like they were full of sand and my ears lost their feeling.
Then I got on the plane to Paris!
There the weather was virtually zero visibility and raining with a comfortable +6/C which was to say the least almost tropical after 9 days of around minus 15/C or worse.
I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. +21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies.

So the blog is about global warming, well that's one day of transportation warming from the great lakes at about:-
43.7000° N, 79.4000° W.
To Malaga Spain:-
36.7194° N, 4.4200° W.

+7 degrees in Latitude and +41/C in temperature.
Sort of makes you think a bit if you have time too like I do!

I know we will have the goon show on with the twits on about "gulf streams and jet streams"( not to mention, IQ streams!) but as I said before, It sort of makes you think a bit about how diverse this planet is!

Here's a photo I took last week on Wednesday. Standard tourist Niagara Falls shot:-


Here's Here, a couple of degrees north of Malaga about now!
Diverse planet?
Think about it.

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857. TimTheWxMan
5:44 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 855. GTstormChaserCaleb:






A blank comment? You must have been left speechless.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
856. TimTheWxMan
5:41 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 853. Climate175:

So the warm up will happen in 10 days?



However, it is kind of an improvement from now.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
855. GTstormChaserCaleb
5:41 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015

Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
854. TimTheWxMan
5:40 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 853. Climate175:

So the warm up will happen in 10 days?



What warm-up?

Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
853. Climate175
5:35 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
So the warm up will happen in 10 days?
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
852. LAbonbon
5:33 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
From NASA Earth Observatory - a quite stunning look at the Arctic

Landsat Goes Over the Top: A Long View of the Arctic


Visuals and text by Kathryn Hansen, Jesse Allen, Robert Simmon, and Matt Radcliff. Design by Paul Przyborski February 12, 2015

On February 11, 2013, the Landsat 8 satellite rocketed into space to extend a four-decade legacy of Earth observations. A few months after launch, we published a composite of images that spanned 9,000 kilometers of land from Russia to South Africa. In celebration of the satellite’s second anniversary, the mosaic concept returns with a chilly twist, this time featuring a slice of the Arctic Circle.

The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 acquired this unbroken swath of images on June 21, 2014—the summer solstice—when the Sun stays above the horizon of the Arctic for at least 24 hours. While much of the region is still frozen in June, the ice is in various stages of melting.

The Landsat 8 swath begins in Sweden and Finland, then crosses the Greenland Sea and northern Greenland. The scenes then take us over North America, through Canada’s Nunavut and Northwest Territories, before ending up offshore of British Columbia. In its entirety, the flyover covers an area about 6,800 kilometers long and 200 kilometers wide (4,200 by 120 miles).

“These Landsat swaths provide stunning views of transitions across the most remote and infrequently visited areas of our planet,” said Jim Irons, NASA’s project scientist for Landsat 8.


See more (including map of flight path, individual images, and a very cool way too look at the images using GigaPan)
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:30 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.
10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
850. Climate175
5:28 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
23 more days until Spring.
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849. TimTheWxMan
5:27 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 846. sar2401:

At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)



It is my lifelong dream to have a double major in basket weaving and art history. :O)
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
848. TimTheWxMan
5:24 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 835. weathermanwannabe:

Anyone have any thoughts on how the Spring tornado season will pan out over the next few months? We know that the biggest "boom" for the Mid-West comes with strong warm Gulf flow colliding with the cooler air from late-Winter fronts entering the Plains from the Rockies. Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well. Too early to know what the transition pattern will fall into from Spring to Summer (it could change from the current one) but I remember our Blogger "Levi" making some good correlations (which I believe he presented to SPC a few years ago) on one of the Pacific indicators with some correlations to tornado season.

Would love to hear from Levi on his thoughts on this issue for the coming few months.



The problem last year with severe weather was that there was either a lack of moisture return, constant reinforcing arctic air (like what we've seen most of the year so far) early morning convection killing the instability, or weak buoyancy. The last few years have been rather benign in terms of tornadoes. At this same point last year, there were over twice as many tornadoes for the year as there were now. Since last year, i was wondering if teleconnections had any effect on severe weather. Maybe that could be my senior assignment this fall.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
847. sar2401
5:23 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting stoormfury:
NO MATTER WHAT WE SAY ,THERE IS BOUND TO BE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EL NINO, LA NINA MODOKI. AND NEUTRAL THIS HURRICANE SEASON
Your caps lock key is stuck.

There's also the outside chance we could get that clouds and trumpets thing on June 1 also. That would really disrupt hurricane season.
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
846. sar2401
5:21 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting Naga5000:


Bout time I was an expert on something. My mom would be proud.
At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
845. Patrap
5:20 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
A government and people can be moral without a religious basis.


Indeed as one does not need a religion for morality, one knows a right from wrong, if you don't, one lacks empathy, not religion.

Kansas comes to mind.

Bill easing prosecution of teachers for harmful materials get Kansas Senate%u2019s OK
BY BRYAN LOWRY


A bill that would make it easier to prosecute teachers and school administrators for using lesson materials deemed harmful to minors gained initial approval in the state Senate on Tuesday.

Senate Bill 56 removes a provision in current law that protects schools from such prosecution. The bill leaves the protection intact for universities, museums and libraries.

A similar bill last year sparked controversy and did not make it to the Senate floor. This year the bill passed easily on a voice vote without a single objection.

Senate Democrats had planned to fight the bill, Sen. David Haley, D-Kansas City, said. However, Haley had stepped out of the chamber and Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, D-Topeka, was in a meeting in his office when the bill came up for discussion.

more,,,,
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
844. Gearsts
5:19 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
Quoting 839. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch us get a La Niña . :P
Shhh! He's watching...
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
843. stoormfury
5:18 PM GMT en Febrero 26, 2015
NO MATTER WHAT WE SAY ,THERE IS BOUND TO BE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EL NINO, LA NINA MODOKI. AND NEUTRAL THIS HURRICANE SEASON
Member Since: Diciembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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