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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
318 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Discussion...

This afternoon and tonight: another cool day across South Florida
with temperatures currently maxing out in the low to mid 60s across
the region. Dewpoints are generally in the mid-upper 30s with a few
low 40s in spots, showing just how dry the airmass is across the
area.

The surface high over the Gulf is expected to slide east this
evening, centered directly over South Florida overnight. This should
allow temperatures to decouple quickly after sunset, becoming calm
or nearly so. This, coupled with the dry air and mostly clear skies
will set the stage for excellent radiational cooling. The one curve
Ball in temperatures freefalling overnight is the cirrus that
visible satellite currently shows over the central Gulf. Depending
on when and how much of this cirrus moves overhead, which models
differ slightly about, peak radiational cooling potential may not be
achieved. Tonight's forecast will lean on the cooler side of
guidance, with temperatures dipping into the upper 30s around Lake
Okeechobee and low 40s for the remainder of the interior. Gulf Coast
and western portions of the East Coast Metro will dip into the mid
40s, though wouldn't be surprised for a few low 40s in the coldest
spots in these areas. The remainder of the East Coast will stay in
the upper 40s to around 50 east of I-95.

Thursday and friday: high pressure center will slide across the
region on Thursday and off to our east on Friday, keeping very light
low level southwesterly flow in place. Dry and cool conditions
continue, though with slowly rising 500 mb heights, a slight warming
trend will ensue. Maximum temperatures Thursday are forecast to rise
to the low 70s, then mid to upper 70s by Friday. Overnight lows will
be range from the upper 40s across the far interior to low 60s
Thursday night, with 50s and 60s for everyone Friday night.

Saturday through monday: the threat for any appreciable
precipitation has all but evaporated with the last two model runs.
12z models keep the upper level ridge in place just to our
southeast, limiting any significant southward progress of the
shortwaves moving through the southern US. It looks like another
dry frontal passage Friday night, but unlike the previous few
fronts, the airmass will be modified by the time it arrives along
with winds quickly veering east-northeast. As a result
temperatures will be near normal in the mid-upper 70s on Saturday
and low 80s on Sunday. South-southeasterly flow on Monday may
allow temps to climb to near record levels in the mid 80s.

&&

Marine...northwesterly winds will continue to diminish this
afternoon as high pressure builds across the region through the end
of the week. Except light and variable winds tonight into Thursday,
with flow becoming south-southwest on Friday though at less than
10kts. Weak frontal passage on Saturday will bring a little stronger
northeasterly flow with winds around 15kts, veering east on Sunday.
Seas highest this afternoon and evening at 2-4ft in the Gulf and 3-
5ft in the Atlantic, then subsiding to 2ft or less late Thursday.

&&

Aviation...high pressure in place across the region, wind will be
northwesterly through this afternoon and evening.After sunset winds
will become light and variable. Tomorrow, with high pressure
directly over South Florida winds will be light and variable around
5 knots. Skies are forecast to be clear to mostly clear through the
taf period.

&&

Fire weather...high pressure will build across the region from the
Gulf the next few days, leading to light winds and poor dispersions.
Relative humidity values will bottom out in the mid 30s this afternoon for most
locations. A little more low level moisture is expected to keep
rhs above critical values the next few days, though a few
locations may drop into the upper 30s on Thursday. No appreciable
rain chances are expected through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 44 71 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 49 71 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
Miami 50 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 47 73 55 76 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.

&&

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