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fxus62 kmfl 190548 
afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
148 am EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Aviation...
VFR conditions prevail through the period with light and
calm wind overnight turning to the southwest into the mid
morning hours. Less shower activity expected this afternoon
but a few storms could not be ruled out near the terminals,
therefore, included thunderstorms in the vicinity to most of the East Coast terminals.
Less activity expected along the West Coast.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 806 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

Aviation...
showers have generally dissipated for the evening but cant rule out
some activity near pbi and tmb until about 11 PM. Expect VFR to
prevail with even less showers/tstm coverage Thursday. Have
placed afternoon vcsh at all but apf/pbi/fll (where pops are
lowest). Light /calm wind overnight will become southeast at 10 knots by
midday Thursday (except west-southwest at apf).

Update...
updated the current forecast based on current radar trends. Any
leftover shower or thunderstorm will quickly diminish as the
evening progresses. A south to southwesterly wind flow will
continue across the region on Thursday. There will be shower and
thunderstorm development in the afternoon but it will be limited
in coverage. The best chance will be across interior and East
Coast sections. Any shower or thunderstorm that does develop on
Thursday afternoon will begin to diminish as Thursday evening
progresses.

Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

Discussion...
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
interior and East Coast portions of South Florida this afternoon.
These showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish as the
evening progresses. The overall weather pattern will remain the
same at least through Thursday. The wind flow will be more of a
south to southwesterly direction. In addition to this, the Saharan
air layer (sal) has moved into the region and it will remain in
place through Thursday. This will result in a balance of the much
drier mid level air and the lingering moisture that is associated
with a frontal boundary to the north. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will remain lower then climo on Thursday due to
these features. By Friday, a little bit more moisture will be able
to get into the area due to a stronger south to southwest wind
flow, this will allow for a slight increases of the chances of
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Expect
temperatures to remain in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, along
with heat index values in the 100-106 range across most of South
Florida.

Both of the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) continue to show different
solutions regarding the ridging across the area as the weekend
approaches. This ridge may or may not begin dissipating sometime
during the upcoming weekend and into early next week. For now, the
current forecast continues to assume that the ridge will begin
weakening and allow for a return of south to southeasterly flow,
increasing moisture, and higher probability of precipitation to near or just above climo.

Marine...
a broad area of high pressure will continue to remain in place
across the western Atlantic for the rest of the work week. This
will help to keep a generally south to southwesterly flow across
the local Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day, however, coverage of
these storms will be less over the next couple of days. Locally
higher winds and seas are possible near any thunderstorms that do
develop.

Aviation...
expect a weak sea breeze to continue across both coasts, from the
south southeast direction along the Atlantic and southwest along
the Gulf. Scattered showers should persist in eastern Broward and
Palm Beach counties through this evening with a chance of
thunderstorms. With the loss of diurnal heating this evening,
this activity will wane. Light and variable winds are forecast
overnight.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 93 77 93 78 / 20 20 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 30 10
Miami 92 78 92 79 / 30 10 30 10
Naples 92 77 93 78 / 10 10 20 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

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