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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
345 am EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Discussion...

Today and tonight...

Ridging aloft will extend from the southern Great Plains into the
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Bisecting the ridge is a mid-
level trough which will progress through the Atlantic coastal states
during the period. The surface reflection of these upper level
features includes troughing across the Carolinas, with a slight
weakening of the western Atlantic ridge ahead of the trough. Winds
are easterly in the low levels, becoming more northeasterly
aloft. This flow pattern will steer a pocket of better moisture
(characterized by precipitable water values around 2 inches) now
over the western Bahamas/Atlantic coastal waters towards the East
Coast this morning. Periodic showers will affect the East Coast
through about mid morning. Thereafter, expect afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development to be driven by Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes, with the greatest concentration towards the interior and
West Coast this afternoon. Given upper ridging and warm
temperatures aloft, thunderstorm coverage should quickly wane
towards evening, with Atlantic coastal showers possibly
approaching the East Coast once again late tonight towards
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be on the warm side,
especially towards the western interior areas where highs should
reach the lower to perhaps mid 90s. Went above guidance for high
temperatures today, given persistence and the pattern in place.
Peak heat index readings of 100 to 106 are expected, so those
outdoors should exercise caution.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Mid-level ridging will prevail across the southeastern Continental U.S. During
this period, as the ridge progrades into the western Atlantic. While
it will be generally drier and warmer aloft, South Florida remains
on the southern periphery of the ridge, leaving US subject to any
weak perturbations rotating around it. With easterly flow, we should
maintain the cycle of late night/early morning Atlantic showers,
followed by afternoon mainly sea breeze driven showers and storms
more concentrated towards the interior and West Coast. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side, with readings ranging from around 90
in the east to the lower 90s in the interior

Friday through Monday...

South Florida remains along the southern fringe of the mid-level
ridge, as a series of perturbations ride easterly flow into the
area. This will add a bit more moisture and lift to the area on
Friday and Saturday. An increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage is likely during this time, with east to southeast flow
once again providing a pattern of late night/morning Atlantic
showers followed by interior and West Coast focused thunderstorms.
This pattern should continue into early next week, albeit with
slightly lower thunderstorm coverage. Temperatures during this
period should be near seasonal norms.

&&

Marine...

East to southeast winds on Tuesday will trend towards southeasterly
on Wednesday with speeds of 10 knots or less, and wave heights under
3 feet. A 1 ft northeasterly swell will continue into this evening,
particularly off the Palm Beach County waters. Showers and
thunderstorms should peak during the late overnight/early morning
hours over the next few days in the Atlantic, with better coverage
towards the West Coast during the afternoon. Locally higher winds
and waves are possible in and near these thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...

Light and variable winds overnight tonight with VFR conditions
prevailing. A few showers over the Atlantic waters may drift
towards the East Coast terminals early this morning, but coverage
will be isolated until around 11z, when vcsh is included and
coverage increases. This afternoon seabreeze will move through
terminals with storms and convection mainly over the interior and
western portions of region far enough away from terminals to
leave out of forecast. L/v winds return tonight.

&&

Beach forecast...

Northeasterly swells will continue into this evening, resulting in a
moderate risk for rip currents for the beaches of Palm Beach
County.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 76 90 76 / 30 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 89 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 20
Miami 91 77 90 77 / 30 20 30 20
Naples 90 76 90 76 / 40 20 20 30

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&



Discussion...34/spm
marine...34/spm

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