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fxus62 kmfl 201052 
afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
552 am EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Aviation...
breezy easterly 10 to 15 knots winds will continue through mid
morning. Aft 20/1400z, easterly winds will increase to sustained
16 or 17 kt, gusting into the mid 20 knots range. These winds only
weaken slightly as evening approaches. Expect few/sct low clouds
near 2500 feet agl through the period, with another sct layer near
5000 feet agl.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 331 am EST Tue Feb 20 2018/

Discussion...

Today and tonight: disturbance crossing the region this morning as
it rounds the southwest side of the of the mid-upper level ridge
centered to our northeast. Last evening's sounding which shows that
all of the moisture associated with this feature is generally below
8000ft, which has been enough to generate light to moderate showers
across the region overnight.

Disturbance should rotate out of the region to the northwest later this
morning, with rain chances gradually diminishing. Models are
consistent in keeping enough low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift behind the feature that a isolated shower mention will remain
in the forecast for the East Coast into this afternoon.

If cloud cover can move out fast enough, temperatures may approach
records for the western interior and Gulf Coast in the upper
80s/around 90. The eastern half of the region will continue in the
low to mid 80s with breezy east winds.

Wednesday and thursday: persistent ridge continues to strengthen
just to our east mid-week. Models show fairly dry atmosphere in
place on Wednesday in the wake of the departing disturbance, with
pwats hovering around 1". Models continue to oscillate a bit on how
to treat the next disturbance moving across Wednesday night and
Thursday. The general model consensus keeps the bulk of this
feature's associated moisture to our south over the Keys and Florida
Straits. Enough will reach into South Florida however, to keep a
mention of at least isolated showers in the forecast, especially for
the Atlantic and East Coast.

Lack of Gulf Breeze development will allow temperatures along the
Gulf Coast and western interior to climb into the mid to upper 80s.
The eastern side of the region will hold a little closer to normal
in the low to mid 80s.

Friday through monday: upper level ridge center will gradually
weaken as it slides west across the Florida Peninsula into this weekend.
Low level ridge axis will also migrate southwards, veering flow more
southeasterly into the upcoming weekend. Passing low level
disturbances/pockets of higher moisture will be enough to bring
periods of showers, mainly for the Atlantic/East Coast. Temperatures
continue in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s over
the interior and Gulf and low 70s along the East Coast.

Marine...strong western Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across the South Florida waters through the
remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds will
continue, with speeds 10 to 15kts for the Gulf and at least 15 to
20kts for the Atlantic. Expect periods of solid 20kts over the
Atlantic at times, including this morning. Winds over the Atlantic
expected to diminish enough to allow the current Small Craft
Advisory in place over the Atlantic to drop mid-morning, but
additional advisories may be needed at later times. Seas 3-4ft in
the offshore Gulf and 3-5ft, occasionally 6ft in the Atlantic.
Occasional Atlantic showers are expected through most of the period.

Beach forecast...breezy easterly flow will lead to a high
risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches through the remainder of
the week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 85 74 83 72 / 20 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 82 75 83 74 / 20 10 10 20
Miami 84 75 83 73 / 20 10 10 20
Naples 87 69 88 67 / 20 0 0 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 am EST this morning for
amz630-650-651-670-671.

GM...none.
&&

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