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afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
713 am EST sun Jan 20 2019

Update...
west wind behind the cold front are already at hazardous levels on
Lake Okeechobee, and gusty west and northwest wind of 20 to 25
knots is likely to persist through the afternoon, so have hoisted
Small Craft Advisory for the lake.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 645 am EST sun Jan 20 2019/

Aviation...
cold front will move through the region this morning, roughly 13z
at kapf and 15z for East Coast terminals. Scattered to numerous
showers are expected ahead of the front, with some isolated
thunderstorms (probability of thunderstorms and rain too low to mention in tafs).
Period of MVFR cigs is likely with frontal passage showers and then 2-3
hours Post frontal. Brief visibility restrictions are also likely during
the heavier showers. SW wind 10-15 knots this morning, shifting
westerly after the front at 15-20 knots and gusty. Wind tonight
should be northwest at 5-10 knots.

Fire weather...
very good dispersion is expected today, with values near 75 across
the area. For Martin Luther King Junior day, relative humidity
will fall below 35 percent across western parts of South Florida.
However, northerly wind is expected to remain around 10 mph.

Previous discussion... /issued 306 am EST sun Jan 20 2019/

Discussion...
today and tonight: a surface low tracking across the Continental U.S. Is moving
into the mid-Atlantic this morning. Latest TAFB surface analysis
shows the cold front in the eastern Gulf approaching the West
Coast of Florida. A few showers ahead of the main line is possible
early this morning. The main line, a broken line, of showers with
an isolated thunderstorm is possible as the front tracks across
the peninsula. The cold front has out run most of the upper level
support with the vort Max and shortwave trailing well behind and
north the broken line of showers. As the front moves offshore the
East Coast by late morning and clears the region by mid-day
lingering clouds and breezy conditions for the latter part of the
day. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter down the Florida
Peninsula in the evening and overnight.

As winds become northerly and skies begin to clear cold air
advection will be in full swing with low temperatures Monday morning
in the mid 30s around the Lake Okeechobee and portions of the
interior, low to mid 40s for the Gulf Coast, mid 40s for the East
Coast Metro. Winds will remain elevated to allow wind chills to be a
few degrees cooler. If winds do lighten some overnight over the
interior, then there is a chance of some frost development across
portions of Glades, Hendry and northern Collier counties.

Short term (monday-wednesday): high pressure develops behind the
front Monday and moves east into the Atlantic fairly quickly. This
will cause our winds to become northeasterly by Monday afternoon and
continue to veer easterly throughout the week. The cold air
advection will short lived with the wind shift and low temps Tuesday
morning not nearly as cold as Monday. Dry and pleasant weather
across the region through mid-week.

Long term (thursday into next weekend): models are in fairly good
agreement with the next cold front to approach the area Thursday
into Friday. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms as the
front clears out by Friday morning. Cooler and drier air filters
down the peninsula with a nice weekend in store for South Florida.

Marine...
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all South Florida
waters. Winds have already begun to increase across the South
Florida waters this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will move through the region this morning bringing showers and
a slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be 20 to 25 knots with
gust up to 30 knots. Seas will begin to build in the Gulf building
to 7-10 feet. Seas in the Atlantic will be 3-5 feet today
building to 6 feet by Monday.

Aviation...
a cold front will be moving from west to east across the area this
morning, reaching kapf around 12z and the East Coast taf sites
around 15z. S to SW winds will strengthen to 10 to 15 kts over
the next several hours out ahead of the front before becoming northwest
at 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts in the wake of the front.
Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are expected
both ahead of and along the front, all of which should clear the
East Coast taf sites by 18z. MVFR to very brief IFR conditions
will be possible with these showers and storms. Breezy northwest winds
this afternoon should gradually subside later tonight.

Beach forecast...
there is a high risk of rip currents at Collier County beaches
today. An elevated risk of rip currents is possible through at
least Monday for the Gulf beaches. Rip current risk increases
along the Atlantic coast Monday through at least mid-week.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 45 68 59 / 60 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 73 49 69 62 / 60 0 0 10
Miami 73 49 70 62 / 60 0 0 10
Naples 70 44 68 54 / 60 0 0 0

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Monday morning for flz069.

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for amz630-650-651-
670-671.

Small Craft Advisory for winds until 6 PM EST this evening for
amz610.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for gmz656-657-676.

&&

Update...23/sbk

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