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fxus62 kmfl 180544 
afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
144 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Aviation...
showers remain possible through the period with a frontal boundary
stalled across the region. Afternoon thunderstorms will again be
possible, mainly inland of the terminals. Overnight light wind
will pick up after sunrise as the sea breezes attempt to develop
and push inland. Wind should become lighter again after sunset,
though some showers may linger.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 719 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Update...
early evening radar data was showing vigorous thunderstorm
activity focused over interior portions of South Florida, slowly
drifting south-southwestward. This is captured well by current
grids, which should continue through the rest of this evening.
Therefore, no significant changes are required for the evening
update.

Winds will become more northerly tonight and into Wednesday as a
cold front over northern Florida reaches the area, along with a
very active weather pattern expected for Wednesday afternoon.

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Discussion...
short term (tonight-thursday)...model solutions depict an
amplifying mid/upper lvl trough over the southeast states, gradually
migrating eastward. An associated sfc cold front boundary is
pushing through the northern half of the Florida Peninsula,
bringing increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms
across South Florida through Wednesday night, with better chances
over the eastern half of the area. 12z mfl sounding shows precipitable waters
around 1.5 inches, while model soundings still show 1.5-2.0 inches
during the next day or so. Thus, shower activity will continue to
increase through Wednesday night, then a drying trend begins
Thursday morning.

The frontal passage remains weak, which will not bring a significant change
in temperatures, with most places remaining near or at normals.
However, southern-most/interior areas could reach upper 80s on Thu
afternoon.

Long term (thursday night-monday)...global models show the
aforementioned trough moving into the western Atlantic during the
second half of the work week as the dissipating front clears the
peninsula on its way to the Florida Keys. High pressure quickly
builds in the wake of the frontal passage with northerly winds gradually
shifting to a more east-northeast flow by Thursday night into Friday.
Pressure gradients become tighter during the weekend with
possible periods of breezy winds across much of South Florida.

Remnant moisture lingering over the area will be enough to fuel
some scattered showers and a few storms, mainly each afternoon
with daytime heating. Temps will remain around normal through
the extended forecast period.

Marine...
winds are shifting to more northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front moving across northern Florida. The northerly/northeasterly
flow will increase to around 20 knots by end of the work week.
Seas will be 2 to 5 feet before increasing later this week
especially in the Atlantic waters.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 86 73 88 78 / 60 50 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 85 75 87 78 / 60 40 40 30
Miami 86 73 89 77 / 60 50 30 30
Naples 87 72 90 74 / 40 10 30 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT Thursday
for amz650-670.

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