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fxus62 kmfl 221220 
afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
820 am EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Aviation...
expect mainly VFR conds today with a few low cumulus clouds,
bases 2500 ft msl, passing along the East Coast taf sites. Very
low clouds over kapf, with bases 500 ft msl, should dissipate by
late this morning. Southeast winds will continue breezy today around 14
kt, dwindling aft 23/0000z. Dry conditions will persist tonight
with a few/sct low clouds along the eastern peninsula, bases near
3000 ft msl.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 417 am EDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Discussion...

High pressure building across the region through the weekend will
bring a drier pattern to South Florida. Precipitable water values
in the model soundings continue to trend lower, with values below
1.5 to 1.4 inches, in which is much lower than the average. With
the drier air mass in place the chances for showers and storms
will decrease, but not completely with models still showing a
slight chance of precipitation. Chances of isolated to scattered
showers around 20 percent during the afternoon and evenings mainly
in the interior. High temperatures will continue to be right
around 90 degrees through the weekend. Heat index values will be
near 105 out West Coast today as southeast winds sets up over the
region. A repeat of the weather conditions continues into Friday
with main chance of showers and thunderstorms interior and West
Coast in the afternoon.

Next week: a weak trough will be moving across the eastern US
with a cold front associated with it. This front will stall
across North Florida but the increase in moisture will once
again increase rain chances for Sunday and the start of the
work week. Pwats will increase to climatological values for
this time of year 1.8 and climbing to around 2 inches by
mid-week. Higher rain chances will be concentrated across the
interior and Lake Okeechobee region, as the sea breeze summertime
pattern takes over.

Marine...
Ridge buids across the forecast area with high pressure in control.
Southeast winds will be 10 to 15 knots with some gust up to 20
mph. Winds will be more easterly and lighten Friday through the
weekend. Seas will gradually decrease as well generally 2 to 3
through the rest of the week and 1 to 3 this weekend. There will
still be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
waters, however chances are lower then they have been the past few
days. Rain chances will begin to increase as more moisture moves
into the area Sunday through next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 89 79 90 80 / 10 10 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 20 10
Miami 90 80 90 80 / 10 10 20 10
Naples 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

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