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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
502 am akdt Thu Jun 21 2018

Discussion...
low pressure will continue the next few days along the West Coast
while warm and relatively dry weather is expected for much of the
interior and inland areas of the North Slope. Coastal areas along
the North Slope will remain under a maritime influence.

Aloft, at 500 mb, the low centered over Nunivak Island will
slowly move to the west over the next few days but will continue
to be a major player in the weather pattern. The ridge over the
interior and Arctic coast will continue to build over the
interior and Arctic coast today. This ridge will be pushed to the
east on Friday as a low moves to the north in the Gulf of Alaska
and sends a frontal system northward through the interior.
However, models are now showing that the ridge will not back off
an much as originally anticipated. This will shift precipitation
associated with the front more toward the west.

Central and eastern interior: warm temperatures are expected to
continue today with temperatures in many locations in the Tanana
and Yukon river valleys reaching the upper 70s, with some
locations reaching 80 degrees. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible across much of the interior ahead of a
front expected to move north through the interior. Details are
below in the fire weather section. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible along a line from Eagle to Livengood where the models are
showing an area of higher instability, mainly over areas of
elevated terrain. A strong thermal trough is expected to form
aiding thunderstorm development and kicking up winds along the
north side of the Alaska Range. Warm, dry weather and these high
winds are expected to lead to red flag conditions this afternoon.
Convective red flag conditions will also be present in areas of
scattered thunderstorms. Details on red flag conditions are in the
fire weather section. Friday will be cooler across most of the
interior. Rain showers are expected across much of the eastern
interior on Friday, some of which could be locally heavy; however,
at this point there is not a lot of consistency between the
models in the placement and exact timing of the heaviest
precipitation.

West Coast and western interior: a weather front will continue its
progression northwest across the West Coast today. This will
bring locally heavy rainfall to the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon
valley. Scattered showers will continue on Friday. Areas on the
south side of the western Brooks range could see between 0.5 to
1.0 inches of rain over the next couple of days.

North Slope and Brooks range: a ridge of high pressure is still
expected to move over the Brooks range today and tomorrow.
Temperatures are expected to continue to warm over inland areas
as a result. A shortwave will move to the north over the Brooks
range and onto the North Slope Friday. This will bring more
rainfall to the Brooks range and cooler temperatures. Low level
stratus and fog is expected to continue along the coast.



Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.

&&

Fire weather...
a strong thermal trough is expected to develop today over the
Tanana Valley. This will cause the winds to pick up on the north
side of Alaska Range. High temperatures will be warmer than
yesterday with many locations in the Tanana and upper Yukon
valleys reaching reaching into the 80s. Minimum relative humidity
values will drop below 25 percent across much of the Tanana
Valley. Non convective red flag conditions are expected in the
vicinity of Delta Junction today. Red flag warnings were issued
for zones 223 and 226 for today in anticipation of the hot, dry
and windy conditions. A front will bring isolated to scattered
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across much of the
interior. This will likely bring a lot of lightning activity to
portions of the eastern interior, mainly over areas of elevated
terrain due to enhanced lift. Convective red flag warnings were
issued in anticipation of the lightning today for zones 220, 222
and 224. Cooler and wetter conditions are expected on Friday
behind the front.

&&

Hydrology...
warm temperatures aloft over the Brooks range combined with heavy
rainfall over the last several days and additional rainfall
expected over the next couple days will produce significant rises
on rivers draining the Brooks range and in particular The Sag
river. Current forecasts keep The Sag river below action stage,
but we will need to monitor closely as additional rain falls over
the Brooks range. Recent heavy rainfall will keep many of the
smaller creeks and streams in the West Coast and western interior
running high over the next few days.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning for akz220-akz222-akz223-akz224-akz226.

Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220.

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