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000 axpz20 knhc 100303 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Dec 10 2013Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC....Special features...Gulf of California gale...the pressure gradient between strong 1042 mb high pressure over the Great Basin region and troughing over Mexico is producing gale force winds over the far northern part of the Gulf of California. High pressure over the Great Basin region will weaken over the next 24-30 hours. As a result...winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Tue afternoon...and further diminish below 25 kt by late Tue night.Gulf of Tehuantepec gale...a strong cold front will move through the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Cool dense air behind the front will funnel through the chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tue afternoon with winds increasing rapidly to near gale force. Winds will further increase to gale force by Tue night. The strong high pressure N of the area resulting from the cool dense air will allow the gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to persist into Friday...with stronger conditions reaching just below storm force during the overnight and early hours with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. The persistent gap wind flow will also produce a plume of short period NE swell in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 110w by late Thursday....Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...The monsoon trough extends from 09n84w to 07n98w where low level winds suggest a transition to ITCZ which extends to 08n118w to beyond 05n140w. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 150 nm N of ITCZ between 125w and 135w....Discussion...Low pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the N part of the area near 28n127w with associated cold front extending over the area from 30n123w to 25n126w to 26n137w. The pressure gradient between the low and 1038 mb high pressure centered near 44n133w is producing an area of fresh to strong winds N of the front with seas to 11 ft in NW swell. The low and front are forecast to dissipate by Tue with winds and seas behind the front decreasing through Wed.Weak surface ridging along 23n is supporting fresh to strong trades from 09n to 20n W of 132w and from 11n to 16n between 125w and 132w. The strong trades are enhancing convergence into the ITCZ and maintaining the area of convection between 125w and 135w as mentioned above. The ridge will weaken and the areal coverage of strong trade winds will decrease over the next 24 hours with trades diminishing below 25 kt by Wed evening.Gulf of papagayo...nocturnal pulsing of winds to 20 kt can be expected over the next couple of nights...with the potential for stronger gap flow later in the week.$$ Al
By Dr. Jeff Masters
10:42 AM EST on December 09, 2013
The calendar says we’re still a month and a half away from the peak of winter, but the winter weather gripping most of the U.S. is more typical of mid-January, as a significant outbreak of Arctic air continues to bring...
All Atlantic Storms (1851-2013)
Named Storms for 2013
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