Special Update: Ernesto becomes a hurricane
TS Ernesto has became the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season. Aircraft recon has found hurricane force surface winds which warrant an upgrade. Ernesto is a cat1 hurricane with 80mph winds, 983mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 14mph. Hurricane warnings are up for most of the Yucatan Peninsula and anyone over there should expect TS- Hurricane conditions in the next few hours if not already. His appearance has improved greatly on satellite over the past 12 hours. The coc has became even more well defined and convection has increased on all sides. The environment is conducive for more strengthening right up till landfall so he should continue to intensify. The forecast for Ernesto is still a little tricky with him trending more N of where the NHC forecasts him to go. I expect a 90-95mph hurricane to make landfall between Costa Maya and Punta Allen. After that he should weaken back down to a strong TS but go back into the BOC. The strong Texas death ridge will prevent him from going too far north. Once he is there he should re strengthen back to a hurricane(85mph) and make a landfall between Tecolutla and Tampico. Once inland he should rapidly weaken due to loss of warm water and the mountains. Anyone in hurricane Ernesto's path needs to follow the warnings and take all safety precautions. I will have a full update on the tropics this Evening.
My forecast for Hurricane Ernesto, NOT OFFICIAL