Midwestern Severe Weather Blog

Big Storm To End February (Be Patient Snow-Starved Weenies!)

Posted by: wfreeck, 1:24 AM GMT en Febrero 12, 2010

Well first let me say I am so proud that I finally am sharing on some of that nice deep snowpack. I did do a little worse than I thought, but still 6" isn't bad considering the significant snow drought we have (while we're still 5" below average, we would have been more like 12" below average without this past winter storm).

Well in this part of the country there's nothing to write home about in the weather department. Just more clouds and cold weather. In fact the next 2 weeks look quite boring for most weather enthusiasts. The big cities in the south are seeing a huge snowstorm and the Ohio Valley could see a nice pillow fluffer come through later this weekend, freshing up their foot or more deep snow pack with an additional 2-4". It could potentially form into a stronger storm and dump slightly higher amounts along hte east coast, but I honestly don't care as much about them after Philly & D.C. are both experiencing their snowiest winter on record (no offense east coast peeps).

Well I've turned my attention ALL the way until the end of febraury. One will have ot travel halfway across the world to see our next bugger (China & Japan). I'm not sure if any of the popular mid-range forecasters mentioned it, but whatever!

...Sorry for the 2 blurred image! :-(...

I'm not gettng into deep details right now, but synoptically this could definitely be a rather major storm for the eastern and southern half of the country.

Note the rather impressive height falls associated witht his system, which in translation says it means some real business. Now I will say this, that ridge is also responsible for our relatively boring next two weeks as it virtually cuts off any energy traveling through the Subtropical Jet Stream. Anyways, long story short, as a relatively strong ridge builds off the Soutehrn Califronia Coast (BTW, it looks like their weather has returned from the twilight zone with a long-awaited dry spell and warm up), our big storm will tend to slow up, retrograde above the ridge and dig heavily back into the lower 48. In our backyardsm, The harder storms dig, the stronger they tend to be (as you form that larger contrast of weather in the atmosphere). However, with the speed that it's moving at, it will pick up quite a bit of strength sitting over that warm/moist water. Finally, while I have higher confidence this storm wiull be a Lakes Cutter given that the trough will already be at a neutral tilt when it comes onshore and a zonal flow will tend to develop, I'm not quite ready to bet all of my cherries until I see how that Candian Vortex acts (and whether it produces some confluence over SE Canada).

Ok, so many of you are asking wha the heck is this guy talking about? Well, there are several reasons why this could be a pretty huge one.

1. The Pacific-Northern American Teleconnection will be trending negative roughly around the time period I expect the storm to impact us (Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation will also be trending positively, but not as significantly). Considering how it just came of a LONG period in the positive range (since December!), a change like that in the overall pattern usually hints at the potential for a signifcant storm to form somewhere in the country. In fact, this could also hint at a possible return to seasonably mild weather as a more zonal flow develops (we'll worry about that later).

*(Note, this map DOES NOT include the snowfall that just recently fell across the Gulf Coast States)*

2. While I'm sure this will produce locally heavy snowfall somewhere in the eastern half of the nation judging from dynamics alone, I'm more so worried about the threat of significant flooding in some regions given the lack of much snow melt prior to this storm and the fact that it will bring that warm Pacific air over our reigon (which tends to mix out any shallow arctic air). This storm won't hardly be moisture starved either given it's origins.

3. (and most importantly), the GFS hasn't missed a beat in showing this storm way out in fantasy land (300 hour time frames). While it's true that one sholdn't be focusing so much on things that far out on its model runs, I believe every single run for the past couple of days has picked up on a vort max digging across the Southern US and has formed some sort of low pressure center. In addition I actually can see this storm out there compare to much of the other bull crap it shows.

Link To GFS Model Page:

Link

With all of that said, these type of systems also tend to break those 30-45 day patterns that seem to never give in. If I had to place my bets on March, I would say places in the Midwest are looking quite active compared to the winter weather they've seen so far.

Feel free to post any questions or comments you have here!

Updated: 1:45 AM GMT en Febrero 12, 2010

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Obama or McCain

Posted by: wfreeck, 1:40 AM GMT en Octubre 30, 2008

Who will you be voting for this election? And if you can't vote yet, who will you be rooting for?Obama - 18 (47%)McCain - 19 (50%)Undecided - 1 (3%)(Updated 11/4/08 @ 7:30 PM)

Updated: 12:27 AM GMT en Noviembre 05, 2008

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Monday's Severe Weather Discussion

Posted by: wfreeck, 3:15 PM GMT en Julio 21, 2008

*Discussion* (July 21st, 2008 @ 11:00 AM)We have a pretty complicated day of severe weather on our hands. First off, the MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) did managed to track slightly more eastward than originally thought. It's not a huge deal, but it did limit daytime heating in some of the areas that weren't expecting it.All in all, it sure has left its mark in Nebraska, Iowa & Illinois earlier this morning. Numerous wind repots and several high-wind reports were...

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Severe Weather Update

Posted by: wfreeck, 1:18 PM GMT en Julio 20, 2008

*Update* (July 20th, 2008 & 3:00 PM)After taking a look at the 12z soundings & looking at the model forecasts & mesoanalysis, I have decided to make some small changes to the forecast.- I removed much of Michigan from the slight risk. The clouds from earlier & subsidence wake from the earlier MCS has stabilized hte atmosphere. Thunderstorms are still possible, but only isolated severe storms are expected.-I moved the slight risk area a tad further south to include p...

Updated: 7:36 PM GMT en Julio 20, 2008

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Severe Weather Possible

Posted by: wfreeck, 4:27 PM GMT en Marzo 15, 2008

The severe weather threat for the Western Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest seems to be growing as the models continue to shift further NW with te track of a strong surface low.By pfreeck at 2008-03-29In addition to a severe weather threat, a flood threat is also growing for areas along and east of the Mississippi Valley as this initial system will wrap in an awful lot of moisture accompanied with plenty of shear and instability.By pfreeck at 2008-03...

Updated: 4:13 AM GMT en Marzo 31, 2008

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