nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT en Marzo 26, 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 83.0 ° F |
| Punto de rocío: | 73.0 ° F |
| Humedad: | 71% |
| Viento: | 6.0 mph from the SSO |
| Ráfagas de viento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST en Febrero 06, 2013
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National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 15N65W 13N69W...TOWARD THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 29N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 29N63W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ
THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF
80W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, June 24, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather conditions over the northern portion of the Eastern Caribbean. While a weak trough will influence some instability over the southern portion of the region during the next 12 to 24 hours. Periods of cloudiness and a few scattered showers can be expected as patches of low level moisture drift across the area.
Slight to moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic will continue to move westward near 19 km/h.
Tropical storm Debby formed in the Central Gulf of Mexico yesterday. This system poses NO threat to Dominica.
ISSUED AT: 10:28AM
Date:Sunday 24th of June 2012
Meteorologist: Akil Nancoo
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Sunny spells will be interrupted by a few light to
moderate showers in a few confined areas
eventually leading to a cool clear evening and
night. There is the chance of the afternoon
thundershower occurring in varying localities for
the southernmost islands.
SEAS: Slight
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 34 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:16PM
Date:Saturday 23rd of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 6.27a 7.37p LOW 12.35a 12.59p
Scarborough HIGH 6.22a 7.22p LOW 12.16a 1.03p
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING FLORIDA
AND THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DUST ACROSS BOTH THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY ALL
THE WAY TO CUBA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
2:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD...A DEVELOPING TUTT AXIS WILL ALIGN NEAR BUT MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THUS FAR...SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT HAS REACHED 92 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT THE 26TH DAY IN A ROW OF 90F DEGREES OR
HIGHER...AND PUTTING US IN 3RD PLACE TIE WITH 1982. STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF 90F OR BETTER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN
24/18Z AND 24/22Z WHERE VCTS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. WIND
MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 25/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 91 / 20 20 20 20
STT 81 89 81 89 / 20 20 20 20
.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY DUE TO WINDS AT
20G30MPH AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SIMILAR TO YDAY AND VERY DRY FUELS
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH COAST...ERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 2SD BELOW
NORMAL TODAY RESULTING IN VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WHEN COMBINED WITH
TEMPS IN THE 90S. 950-850MB LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE
STEEP TODAY GREATER THAN 7.5C/KM RESULTING IN HIGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK HOT
AND DRY AND AS DRY AS FUELS ARE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT EACH DAY TO
HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE FIRE DANGER THREAT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE GUSTY THROUGH WED ENHANCING THE FIRE RISK.
&&
.CLIMATE...YDAY MARKED THE 26TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE THIRD LONGEST
STREAK TIED WITH 1981 AND 1982. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981
WHEN THERE WERE 35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MONTH WITH THE MOST 90F DEG
DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE 2012 HAS A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.
SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 9 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 IS NOW THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS SURPASSING JUNE
1983 WHEN THERE WERE 7 NIGHTS. YDAY MARKED THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH MINT AOA 80F. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER IS 8 BACK IN OCT
2009.
JUNE 2012 CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE ON
RECORD AND ALSO THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.8F DEGS. JUNE 2012 IS
ALSO VERY LIKELY TO END AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AND IN THE TOP
FIVE DRIEST MONTHS OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH EVER WAS
MARCH 2005 WHEN ZERO RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N83W AND PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS DRY BUT A FEW PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF
15N BETWEEN 65W-82W. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 83W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OCCURRING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-65W
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather conditions over the Eastern Caribbean. However, patches of low level clouds will produce periods of cloudiness and a few scattered showers across the area today.
Meanwhile a dense layer of Saharan dust is approaching the region. As a result, visibility across the islands will gradually be reduced during the next 24 hours.
Slight to moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
A tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic while another is located in the far eastern Atlantic. These waves continue to move westward near 19 km/h.
Tropical storm Debby located in the north east Gulf of Mexico poses NO threat to Dominica.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Tuesday morning 06:00 l.t., June 26, 2012.
Issued: Monday June 25, 2012. 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC).
.SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
Weather:
Today an Tuesday: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a couple of brief showers during the morning.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:13 and sunset at 19:03.
Winds: East Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong and possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: A mild moisture increase during the beginning of the work week could induce the development of clouds and shower activity over parts of the local islands. Otherwise, abiding strong air flow leads to above normal wave action mainly across the south onshore waters and all the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. Swimmers and boaters should be cautious especially on the south facing onshore and outer waters.
Significant Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Debby doesn't move much and is located over the Central Gulf of Mexico and it remains of no threat to the local islands.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Wednesday morning: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a few local showers during overnight through the morning.
Forecaster: Coffie
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. IT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT WAS IN
THAT AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W/76W AND COSTA RICA NEAR 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
11N IN THE WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 14N...IN THE LOW CLOUD WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 82W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
2:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE FOLLOWED BY A
SAHARAN DUST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
IS MOVING WEST AND BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SO FAR TODAY... AND
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST...AFFECTING THE REST OF PUERTO RICO WITH QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WRF
MODEL IS SUGGESTING DECENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ON TUESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE
LIMITED IF ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA. NAAPS MODEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
CONCENTRATION OF DUST COMING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A BIT OF HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 25/19Z
AND 25/23Z...IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 91 / 20 10 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W GIVING THAT
AREA NE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO THE ABC ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE MONSOON TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NE/SW. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
8:05PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN...
WHILE A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOCAL REGION ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TODAY. THIS SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT OR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEARING 64/65 WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY SPILLING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FURTHER EAST
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ANOTHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED SUSPENDED DUST
PARTICULATES TRAILS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AND TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP PRODUCE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS...AND MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OTHER THAN BRIEF
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECTED THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
DRIER AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
THEREFORE... EXPECT INCREASINGLY HAZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WITH ACCOMPANYING QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS EACH DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THE WEAK TROPICAL MOVG ACROSS THE ERNA CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHRA ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. SHRA EN ROUTE TO THE
ISLANDS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AN SPREAD OVER PARTS OF PR BTW 25/12Z-25/20Z.
PREVIOUS TJSJ 26/00Z SUGGESTED A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS FROM SFC-FL200.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 90 81 90 82 / 30 30 30 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A WEAK 18N61W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W TO 13N72W TO 10N80W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
9N/10N BETWEEN 72W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 83W IN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS RELATED
TO AN UPPER LEVEL 23N34W 13N46W 10N58W TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N49W 8N54W 9N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA...AWAY FROM THE 18N61W 10N80W TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE 31N55W TO 21N85W TO 16N96W UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N85W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO 19N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W...TO THE SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
ONE CELL OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED FROM
19N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, June 26, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours. However, low level cloud patches will produce some periods of cloudiness and a few scattered showers over the islands today.
The presence of Saharan dust across the region will result in a slight reduction in visibility during the next 24 hours.
Moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Eastern Atlantic is moving westward near 28 km/h.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TUESDAY 26TH JUNE 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST , WINDY AND HOT WITH FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BREEZY AND WARM WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT…BOATERS SHOULD ASLO BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SEAS RUNNING: 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 90F 32C
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 81F 28C
SUNRISE: 6:22AM SUNSET: 8:03PM
MOONRISE: 12:49PM MOONSET: 12:51AM WED.
LOW TIDE: 7:20AM HIGH TIDE: 1:36PM
LOW TIDE: 7:50PM.
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: TROPICAL STROM DEBBIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AS IT SLOWLY EXITS NORTHWARD OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HOT WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WEATHER: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEA: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: AT 5AM TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 84.5W ABOUT 85 MILES WEST OF CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45 MPH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AT 3 MPH.
THE END.
I.V.M.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
DRY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND
WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE
AFTER THE WAVE TOMORROW...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB DROPPING TO
NEAR 320K FROM 330K TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY SOME
SAHARAN DUST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A GOOD
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER
WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING JUNE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 26/19Z AND 26/23Z...IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AS 2:30 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS
MARKS THE 28TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
REACHING 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE AT THE AIRPORT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 90 / 20 20 10 10
STT 81 91 81 89 / 30 30 10 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA WHERE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N83W TO ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
78W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY WED AND WILL BE NEAR 75W BY THU.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING DUST HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN HAZY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING
AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW 1.75 INCHES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING. THIS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NAAPS
AEROSOL MODEL ALSO SUGGEST SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THIS DRIER AIR
MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AND WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD SOURCE OF
MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER WHICH HAS
BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING JUNE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE
AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT TKPK THRU AS LONG AS 27/13Z. CONDS ARE
CLEARING OVER WESTERN PR AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED AFT
27/18Z IN NW PR DUE TO DRIER AIR BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE. LLVL WINDS SE
8 TO 25 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 90 78 / 10 20 20 20
STT 89 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W AND PROVIDES NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING S OF 12N W OF 73W ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, June 27, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to influence weather conditions across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 to 48 hours. However, a few patches of low level clouds will produce a few periods of cloudiness and scattered showers today.
The presence of Saharan dust across the region will result in a slight reduction in visibility during the next 24 hours.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the rest of the week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
A tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic and is moving westward near 19 km/h. This wave is expected in our area by Sunday into Monday.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Thursday midday 12:00 l.t., June 28, 2012.
Issued: Wednesday June 27, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
.SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
Weather:
Today and Thursday: Generally partly cloudy with a possible local shower during the morning.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:14 and sunset at 19:04.
Winds: East Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong and near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: during today and tomorrow morning as well, insignificant shower activity is possible while hazy condition continue across the area. Otherwise, the persisting moderate to fresh air flow continues to generate above normal wave action mainly across the south onshore waters and all the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. Bathers and boaters should be cautious especially on the south facing onshore and outer waters.
Significant Tropical Systems: Tropical depression "Debby" moves over the western Atlantic this morning and remains of no threat to the local region.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Friday midday: Generally partly cloudy.
Forecaster: Coffie
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 90 MILES
EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER
WHERE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY ARE N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
80W-84W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT.
8:05PM
A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 43 WEST LONGITUDE THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER...
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE BASIN FREE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAIR WEATHER E OF 75W IS
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9
S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OFF
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE
WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY W OF 78W. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, June 28, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to influence weather conditions across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 to 48 hours. Low level clouds moving with the trade wind flow will result in occasional cloudiness and widely scattered showers.
The presence of Saharan dust across the region will result in a slight reduction in visibility during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, an improvement is anticipated.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the remainder of the week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
An Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 24 km/h. This wave is expected in our area by Sunday into Monday.
ISSUED AT: 02:58PM
Date:Thursday 28th of June 2012
Meteorologist: Paula Wellington
FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNNY AND HAZY AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND COOL EVENING
AND NIGHT.
SEAS: Slight to Normal
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5m IN OPEN WATERS
Calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
TODAY'S MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32.7 Crown Point: 30.9
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:13PM
Date:Wednesday 27th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 10.48a 11.10p LOW 4.37a 4.29p
Scarborough HIGH 10.50a 12.05p LOW 4.35a 4.40p
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W WHERE
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER TO HAITI. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND
IS ANCHORED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA AND WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE NE FLOW ALOFT IS MOVING THE STORMS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION OVER COAST RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATE
SUN OR EARLY MON AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WHILE A WEAK/ERODED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. A BROAD BUT STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND WILL TO DO SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 46/47 WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN OR EARLY MON. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE NORTH AND TRAILING THE WAVE IS ANOTHER AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOME OF THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT EVENTUALLY WILL BRUSH PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LOCAL DYNAMICS/FORCING TO AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
HOWEVER WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
MODELS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO OCCUR IN ISOLATED AREAS.
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND ADDITIONAL ITCZ MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER THROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 2917/2922 DUE TO EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PR. WIND WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. VCSH AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 29/13Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 80 / 30 10 10 20
STT 90 79 91 82 / 30 20 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE BASIN FREE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 77W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TURNING AROUND ITS AXIS
ANALYZED FORM NRN COLOMBIA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC S OF PANAMA. AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUPPORTING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT
TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA WITHIN
150 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, June 29, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to influence weather conditions across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours. Low level clouds moving with the trade wind flow will result in occasional cloudiness and widely scattered showers. An increase in cloudiness and showers is expected by Sunday with an approaching tropical wave.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the remainder of the week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
The Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 24 km/h. This wave is expected in our area by Sunday.
June 29, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Weak High Pressure Ridge over Jamaica.
Comment
The High Pressure Ridge is the dominant feature over the
Caribbean basin today, but on Saturday, a Trough moves south of
Jamaica as the ridge weakens slightly.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Showers over eastern parishes.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers are likely over western parishes. Expect windy conditions over southern parishes with decreasing cloud.
Tonight… Partly cloudy, showers likely over northeastern parishes.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 35 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun… Partly cloudy morning over wastern parishes. Isolated showers over inland areas and western parishes. Windy over southeast coast.
Mon… Partly cloudy morning over eastern parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere. Windy afternoon with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave is south of Puerto Rico. An Area of Low Pressure east of the Lesser Antilles has a weak chance of Tropical Cyclone development.
rar
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG TUTT LOW ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAINT THOMAS HAS GENERATED A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER
GUADELOUPE AND WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL NOSE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER IN THE WEEK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS LODGED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA AT LOWER
LEVELS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM THE BACK SIDE OF A TUTT NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA MOVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER
INTENSE SOLAR HEATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMED EXPLOSIVELY AND LEFT
UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN TRUJILLO ALTO TO NORTHERN
BAYAMON. ALSO MUCH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO FROM VILLALBA TO
AGUADILLA HAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH ONLY A FEW FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL
INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS A BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THESE DRIER BANDS AND WILL SUPPLY FUEL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH 51 WEST WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF MOISTURE ARRIVING ON MONDAY. HELP FROM THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO ARRIVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST ADDING
BETTER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AT THIS TIME...AND IN SPITE OF THE
FACT THAT THE WAVE HAS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT...IT
APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THE STRONGEST
AREA OF THE WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL ALSO PRECEDE IT. HENCE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW. CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE AGAIN SUN AND MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
WAVES...BUT AT THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET.
SQUALLY WEATHER WILL BE ENCOUNTERED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE SUCCESSIVE TROPICAL
WAVES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...COMMUNICATIONS FOR RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA...OUT
SINCE 1019Z...WAS RESTORED AT 1725Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS MARKS THE 31ST CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT SAN JUAN HAS
RECORDED A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES OR MORE...AND...AS THE 29TH DAY IN
JUNE IT BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 DAYS SET IN JUNE OF 1983. THE
OLD RECORD OF 7 MINIMUMS AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN JUNE WAS BROKEN
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND STANDS AT 10. RAINFALL SO FAR IN SAN JUAN
AMOUNTS TO 0.16 INCHES. THE RECORD DRIEST JUNE WAS 0.29 INCHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 80 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 91 81 91 / 20 20 40 40
or montego bay?
my dad used to go to jamaica for business IT trips with mirant, which was an energy company there until they left.
Wu mail me the answer
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN...AND A DRY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS ARE STILL PRESENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS S OF PANAMA AND INTO NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATER S OF
11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE ISLANDS SOMETIME
TOMORROW.
8:05PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE TUTT LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST
TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPLY FUEL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS THAN
THOSE EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY INDUCING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3017/3022 IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND
TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PR. WIND WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 89 80 / 20 20 40 20
STT 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HENCE MOST OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY THIS AIRMASS KEEPING WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 75W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM NRN COLOMBIA ALONG CENTRAL PANAMA INTO THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK NW TO ERN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT
WITHIN 130 NM OFF THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE FAR ERN BASIN LATER TONIGHT...
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 30, 2012
Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave will result in cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorms today into Sunday.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 to 8.0 feet.
The tropical wave located just to the east of the Lesser Antilles is moving westward near 24 km/h. Environmental conditions are not conducive for development of this system.
Date:
SATURDAY 30TH JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
GUSTY EASTERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILS....CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE.
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH CLOUDY PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW; ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON;A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS.
Sea State
MODERATE.
Outlook:
THROUGH TO MONDAY MIDDAY:CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A LOW
850 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS TO SAINT KITTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL EDGE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO
MONDAY WHILE DISSIPATING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH
FROM A SIMILARLY POSITIONED LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...A GENERALLY EAST-WEST RIDGE CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN
20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
INTERLUDES OF MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES TRANSIT THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEK CARRYING MODEST MOISTURE. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE IN
A SPLIT PULSE SUNDAY AND THEN MONDAY. THE SECOND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND PULL MOISTURE WITH IT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...MODESTLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
IN THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 2000 AND 2700 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND WILL POWER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED
MOISTURE HAS YIELDED SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT
AS STRONG OR AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...MOST OF WHICH OCCURRED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AS OF 3 PM AST...SOME OF THE SHOWERS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN MOCA AND AGUADA ACCORDING TO NWS WEATHER RADAR. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL MOVING AT 6 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA AND IS AT ABOUT 58 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT SHOWS A BAND OF DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST
NOW ENTERING SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE RAMPS UP OVER SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT ABOUT 01/04Z WITH SAINT CROIX FEELING
SHOWERS FIRST...THEN MOVES INTO PUERTO RICO ABOUT 01/08Z. SHOWERS
SHOULD THEN BEGIN ON THE EASTERN COAST AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ISLAND
AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. WITH EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
WILL GIVE MANY AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOP...SO AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONE
MORE DAY ON THE NORTH COAST. BUT MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BREAK THE
CONSECUTIVE RUN OF 90S AT THE SAN JUAN AIRPORT WHICH NOW STANDS AT
32 DAYS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A SECOND PULSE
ARRIVES IN THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS A BREAK AND DRYING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THE NEXT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. MOISTURE IN THIS WAVE HOWEVER CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. PRESENTLY MODELS CURL THE TOP OF WEDNESDAY`S WAVE BACK DOWN SO
THAT A BAND OF MOISTURE RE-ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IN A WAY MORE TYPICAL OF THE AREA. THAT
IS...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
A TSRA IS LIKELY AT TJMZ THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS. VFR
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT SHRAS AND STORMS EXPECTED SUN WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MAINLY AFT 01/18Z AT TJBQ...TJMZ
AND TJSJ AND ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO WAVES
SOMEWHAT AND SEAS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 5 FEET DURING THOSE TIMES IN
THE OPEN WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT YET. THIS LEAVES THE
TOTAL RAINFALL STANDING AT 0.16 INCHES...AND THE RECORD DRIEST AT
0.29 INCHES. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE 6 AM
AST SUNDAY. THE MAXIMUM ALSO REACHED 93 DEGREES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT MAKING THIS THE 32ND CONSECUTIVE HIGH ABOVE 90
DEGREES AND THE MOST EVER DAYS ABOVE 90...91...AND 92 DEGREES IN
JUNE SINCE 1899. SHOULD NO RAIN OCCUR IT WILL BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 79 89 / 10 60 30 70
STT 80 89 81 89 / 10 60 50 60
Link
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED OVER THE BASIN NEAR 14N72W. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NRN ISLANDS IS STILL PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...DUE TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF
64W FROM 13N-17N DUE TO MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E
OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE ISLANDS WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A LOW ALMOST
1000 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX TO ANOTHER LOW
SOUTH OF HAITI AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A GENERALLY EAST-WEST RIDGE CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN
20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
INTERLUDES OF MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES TRANSIT THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEK CARRYING MODEST MOISTURE. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE IN
A SPLIT PULSE TODAY AND THEN MONDAY. THE SECOND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND PULL MOISTURE WITH IT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...MODESTLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 2300 AND 2700 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND WILL POWER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ADVANCING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SAINT
MARTIN TO AND AREA ALMOST 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OR 250 MILES SOUTH
OF VIEQUES. LESSER SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING SAINT CROIX AS OF 4 AM
AST. A SMALL PEPPERING OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO JUST LEAVING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS GOOD
MOISTURE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BAND IS NOW
ONLY ABOUT 100 MILES ACROSS AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO LEVELS
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT LEVELS ABOUT 5 HOURS AFTER
PASSAGE. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND THE BULK OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND LESSER BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BRING GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HENCE SHOWERS MAY BE BETTER IN THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY. AIR BECOMES DRIER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMP AS THE NEXT WAVES MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MORE SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT SOME DUST IS PRESENT EVEN IN
THE CURRENT WAVE...SO SKIES WILL BE HAZIER TODAY AND TOMORROW THAN
THEY WERE SATURDAY. WINDS ARE MAINLY EASTERLY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INCREASES SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 90 DEGREES AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND WILL DO SO ON MONDAY AS
WELL IF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING WAVE ARE NOT
SUFFICIENT...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR 89 DEGREES ON
MONDAY IN SAN JUAN THEN BACK TO 91 ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE SECOND WAVE
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING BUT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TNCM/TKPK AS
WELL AS THE USVI AND EVEN TJSJ IN THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...TSRA
ARE LIKELY AT TJMZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT MAINLY VCTS
FOR TJBQ AND TJPS. AT THIS TIME...THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT.&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH EACH TROPICAL WAVE...BUT SO
FAR FORECASTS MAINTAIN THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING WINDS THAT MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED
30 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...IT IS FINAL NOW. JUNE 2012 BECAME THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD IN SAN JUAN WITH 0.16 INCHES. THE SECOND DRIEST JUNE WAS IN
1985 WITH 0.29 INCHES. JUNE WAS ALSO THE WARMEST MONTH RECORDED OF
ANY MONTH WITH AN AVERAGE OF 85.7 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST
MONTH WAS IN JUNE OF 1983. IT HAD AN AVERAGE OF 85.4 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 80 / 60 50 70 50
STT 89 80 89 81 / 60 50 60 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 17N66W...
TO A 15N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W
AND 68W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
81W IN PANAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 75W/76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE
NICARAGUA COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS
ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Sunday, July 1, 2012
Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave is expected to result in some periods of cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorms mainly across the southern section of the region during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next 48 hours with swells peaking near 8 feet.
The tropical wave located in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is moving westward near 24 km/h. Environmental conditions are not favorable for development of this system.
Another tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic and is moving westward near 28 km/h.
BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
SUNDAY 01ST JULY 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WEATHER: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. FAIR AND WARM TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 91F 33C OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 75F 24C
SUNRISE: 6:24AM SUNSET: 8:04PM
MOONRISE: 6:07PM MOONSET: 5:07AM MON
LOW TIDE: 12:07PM HIGH TIDE: 6:37PM
LOW TIDE: 1:06AM MON.
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
FORECAST FOR MONDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND: EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, HOT AND BREEZY WITH A FEW PASSSING SHOWERS.
WIND: EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPIC REMAIN QUIET AT THIS TIME.
THE END.
I.V.M.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MIMIC/TPW SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS PR/USVI THOUGH 12Z TJSJ RAOB ONLY
SHOWED 1.39 INCHES. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF 2.00 PW TO PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS...WITH THE MAXIMUM PRESUMABLY OVER ST. CROIX ATTM
WHERE THE MOST SHOWERS CURRENTLY ARE (MAINLY OVER THE SURROUNDING
WATERS). STRONG SUNSHINE THIS MORNING CAUSED SUFFICIENT WARMING ON
PR SO THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...AND
SATELLITE INDICATES CUMULUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS CONDITIONS ON LAND TO BE DRY.
COMPARISON OF TJSJ AND MACM RAOBS ALONG WITH CIRRUS BLOWING OFF
THE TOP OF THUNDERSTORMS NE OF ST. CROIX SHOWS THAT 12Z NAM HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE 250 MB TROUGH...WHICH IT
EXPECTS TO BE OVER PR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE
IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT JET AT THAT LEVEL THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION TODAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT AXIS STRETCHING ALONG 17N WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRESS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA MON AND HOLD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CONVECTION ON A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT THRU DAYBREAK WED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF 40W WILL RACE WWD AND MOVE THRU THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z WED AND REACH THE USVI AROUND 18Z WED AND MOVE
INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY WED EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG H7 SPEED MAX OF 45 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE
00Z ECMWF. THIS WAVE WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SUCH
A STRONG SPEED MAX...EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KNOTS
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AIR MASS DRIES OUT RAPIDLY THU WITH SAL
ESTABLISHING. AFTER WED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
HOT DRY WINDY PATTERN THAT WE EXPERIENCED ALL JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY VFR XCP TJMZ WILL HAVE NMRS
SHRA/TSRA IN AREA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND VCNTY FOR TJSJ/TJPS.
SHRA WILL DIE DOWN BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVE BUT INCR AGAIN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. LLVL WINDS E 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH TUE BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
WED AS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BROAD WIND SURGE MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY WITH TSTMS THAT MAY REQUIRE SMWS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKED THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA 90F
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WED COULD BRING THIS STREAK TO A HALT AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SQUALLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 30 30 10 10
STT 81 89 81 89 / 20 20 10 10
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