Rain Event/Severe Sunday (And Saturday Evening? in Northern IL)

By: juslivn , 6:55 PM GMT en Marzo 31, 2012

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New Blog to bring in April. March turned out to be really busy. We'll see where April takes us!

Feel free to jump in with weather anytime since I have less free time. Or drop off a flower or share thoughts. You know I'm close by, but sometimes am just trying to keep up with work.

Spring Smiles to all and Happy Easter and Passover!

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:


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I will post the update to the tornado watch as well, shortly.
New MCD



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN...INCLUDING THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
METROPOLITAN AREA...PARTS OF NW WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...

VALID 152254Z - 160030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.

IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT TORNADOES WILL BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...
BUT THEY MAY BE IMPACTING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED MINNEAPOLIS/
ST. PAUL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITHIN A BAND OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BETWEEN
NOW AND 01-02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AND THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT RAPIDLY BECOMES STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTEND ACROSS AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
AREA...APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hi Jus, looks like you are having a busy time....we have seen the reports of the tornados so sad about loss of lives. Take care and stay safe, waiting for Dau to txt from MN not sure where she was this weekend.
Member Since: Noviembre 25, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1103
Different warning for Brownton, MN.

Also, Paul Douglas reports Tor on ground near Hutchinson, moving north @45. Metro threat peaks 6:30 - 9 pm. Still expect 6+ tornadoes over MN http://pic.twitter.com/RHGhLdRE

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FERNANDO...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF WINTHROP...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM IS SEPERATE FROM THE OTHER TORNADIC STORM
NEAR BISCAY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
NEW AUBURN...
BROWNTON...
FERNANDO...
SUMTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
AccuWeather ‏ @breakingweather
Brownton, Minn. reports a tornado touchdown according to police scanner.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 520 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BROWNTON...OR OVER BROWNTON. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HUTCHINSON...
BROWNTON...
BISCAY...
SUMTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Power Outages Blamed on Strong Winds
(S.E. Wisconsin)

Link
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Thank you again. Didn't I post that? I am also posting on FB. Sorry. I have a lot, a lot of family and friends in these areas. I may slow down a bit, I am moving too fast.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
New Tor Watch graphic.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
That's a beautiful picture BF. Wow. Thank you.

Me thinks St. Cloud MN needs a heads up maybe? Whippy storms. I see a bunch of individual strong clusters below them heading straight north. These are interesting cells aren't they?



Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hi jus,


Had the warning here, but I see you got it already.
:)

Ps. That's in a bottle, so it will not update.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
(Map Centered on Fairfax, MN)Far South West of Minneapolis but I didn't like the directional on this vortex symbol



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
452 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 6 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRFAX...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...
HECTOR...
BUFFALO LAKE...
LAKESIDE...

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
If you have any friends at school in Western Illinois, Augustana, etc... please let them know these storms are moving fast. New Tornado Watch, too.



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180_rad ar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...WW 179...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL MO ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH
MLCAPE OF GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT INDICATE A RISK OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...MEAD
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Thanks for posting these fast moving storms on the main and giving people a heads up!
Centered on Columbia, MO
***90 MPH!!!***





BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
424 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELDON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALIFORNIA...ASHLAND...COLUMBIA...HIGH POINT...RUSSELLVILLE...
MCGIRK...CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...JAMESTOWN...EASLEY...MIDWAY...
ENON...LATHAM...LOHMAN...ELSTON...KLIEVER...MARION ...HARTSBURG...
SANDY HOOK AND WILTON.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152122Z - 152245Z

ADDITIONAL WWS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF ONGOING
CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX IS
STILL FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH...AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS LOCALLY ENHANCED
BY EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES/ISOLATED TORNADOES... STILL APPEARS LIKELY
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN
NOW AND 00-02Z.


..KERR.. 04/15/2012

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130


Derecho Composite Parameters

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
I will not be posting all of the tornado warnings I don't think. But a select few. This is the first one after the watch was issued in Minnesota.
Centered on Marshall.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar /WUNIDS_map?station=FSD&brand=wui&num=12&delay=50& type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&t=1334522 965&lat=44.44553375&lon=-95.78569031&label=Marshal l%2C+MN&showstorms=99&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx= 334¢ery=317&transx=-66&transy=77&showlabels=1& severe=0&rainsnow=Show&lightning=Hide&smooth=0

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT


* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARSHALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MARSHALL AND GHENT AROUND 400 PM CDT...
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

extreme northern Iowa
southern Minnesota
west central Wisconsin

Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 2.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 85 statute
miles either side of a line from 50 miles south southwest of
Redwood Falls Minnesota to 40 miles east southeast of Eau Claire
Wisconsin. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou8).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 177...

Discussion... storms are starting to increase from nwrn IA into swrn
MN in advance of a strong upper trough/vorticity Max moving newd
toward the upper MS valley. Air mass along and south of the warm
front extending across srn MN into wrn WI has warmed during the
afternoon resulting in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg. Very strong winds
aloft and associated intense vertical shear will aid in storm
organization with potential for supercells to develop... especially
as storms interact with the warm front. Large hail... damaging winds
and a few tornadoes will be possible with stronger cells as activity
gradually spreads/develops newd through the evening hours.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
500. Mean storm motion vector 21045.


... Weiss
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130


Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
(Running out for a while, too if something pops, feel free to post it)

Hail Potential...MN and IA (sorry, duh)



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151725Z - 151830Z

A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ELEVATED...WITH THE THREAT FOR ANY SVR STORMS BEING
MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SLOWLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT EAST OF A MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER CNTRL
NEB...AND A REGION OF DCVA NORTHEAST OF THE VORT. SIOUX FALLS VWP
DATA INDICATE THE STRONG WAA PATTERN WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY VEERING
WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SFC. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SITUATED OVER FAR ERN SD INTO
CNTRL MN...AND POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-45 KT JUXTAPOSED
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...AS THE SFC WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
EXPERIENCES LITTLE NWD MOTION. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. WITH ONLY ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL EXPECTED OWING TO THE LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

..COHEN.. 04/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45389729 45999569 46039365 45529341 45189374 44269584
43469664 43239760 43799842 44649816 45389729




Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
AND if I hear one more of my yewt say "US???" "It's NOT for US in Chicago!"
I'm going to go nuts! No one seems to think we are included in this mess. Hmmmmm...Hope things don't get intense around here and people caught off guard.


Izzi sayz:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois
1203 PM CDT sun Apr 15 2012


Mesoscale discussion...
1202 am CDT



Elevated risk of severe thunderstorms exists very late this
afternoon and through this evening across the County Warning Area.


Intense Spring cyclone will lift northeast into the upper
Mississippi tonight. Remnant squall line from Sunday evenings
convection stretches from central MO southwest into NE Texas...with
some evidence of a convective or convectively enhanced vorticity over
north central Missouri. Cirrus canopy over Illinois is thinning
allowing for some modest heating to take place this afternoon which
given the moderately steep lapse rates in place will probably be
sufficient for moderate instability to develop. Have seen some
deepen cumulus and weak convective development over eastern County Warning Area...likely
driven by Theta-E advection and probably rooted above the still
somewhat stable boundary layer.


Strong southerly winds should continue to supply a steady feed of
near 60f dewpoints into the area...with the bigger wildcards
regarding instability appearing to be how much cirrus associated
with MO vorticity is able to retard heating this afternoon. Surface temperatures
have already warmed into the low/middle 70s and it would only take
another 5-7f or so to reach convective temperatures based on kdvn sounding
so seems reasonable that sufficient instability with MLCAPE climbing
into the 750-1250 j/kg. Given the anticipated gradual
destabilization and increasing large scale ascent in advance of the
upper low...model depictions of convection over MO tending to
develop northward into northern Illinois late this afternoon and into
the evening certainly seems plausible.


Deep layer shear is already strong (0-6km in excess of 60kt) but is
prognosticated to strengthen even further late this afternoon and evening
as 100kt middle level jet rotates northward into the region around the
upper periphery of the ejecting upper low. Of greater concern is the
low level shear...with 60-70kt low level jet prognosticated to develop
between 00z-03z this evening sending 0-1km srh values skyrocketing
to in excess 400 m^2/s^2. Given the magnitude of shear...even modest
instability would be enough to support severe weather.
Most likely
storm Mode appears to be a squall line or at least line segments
which would pose a threat for damaging winds and possibly brief qlcs
type spin up tornadoes. However...strong isallobaric forcing this
evening should result in very little if any diurnal cooling at
sunset...meaning storms would have the potential to remain surface
based later into the evening than is typical. Given the anticipated
extreme shear values...should any discrete supercells manage to form
the potential for a more substantial tornado threat would certainly
exists this evening.


Izzi

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hi Rob, you do need rain there from reading your posts and those on the main. Hope you can get some soon. Allergies are horrible this year. Horrible.

Ylee, I wonder if that is in McHenry? I think I know where it is. Thanks. Very cool. They look like camels sort of ?

Statement as of 11:18 AM EDT on April 15, 2012

... Wind Advisory in effect until 1 am CDT /2 am EDT/ Monday...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 1 am CDT /2 am EDT/ Monday.

* Timing... winds will continue to strengthen through the afternoon
and will likely peak in strength this evening.

* Winds... sustained winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph by late
afternoon into the evening with occasional gusts over 45 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph... or
gusts between 45 and 57 mph... are likely. Winds this strong can
cause minor property damage unless precautions are taken. Driving
may be difficult... especially in high profile vehicles. Motorists
should be alert and use caution.

Izzi says: "Will shoot to have a convective mesoscale afd issued prior to 17z"


Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Zoooommmm!
:o)

Glad that was your only issue.
Had fuzzy stuff drifting across the deck this morning.
Wasn't cattails...
Weather has been beautiful but too dry.
Kinda looking forward to the summer heat and a drop in pollen levels!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2008 Posts: 99 Comments: 32859
After posting until like 2 am. Basement was in trouble with the drains again. Hubby had to go out in the storm and fix the issues. There are a few trees dropping fuzzball stuff and the drain clogged.

Took some water through that dumb walk-out door and he had to shop vac until 4 am. UGH. But if that's my only problem...Good Morning All! Glad you all are ok, too!

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Good morning, jus.
Boom boom boomer.
Hope the squall line passed thru OKC this morning without making problems for anyone there. Read at the main LaCrosse radar is down for maintenance/dual pol. You probably already know that.

Thanks for stopping in my blog yesterday.

Will bbl to watch for storms.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
139. Ylee
Here is the link to a slideshow of the alpaca farm!

Looks like this round of storms have passed you! Hope you get some good sleep!
Member Since: Febrero 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16046

At the moment, we are actually just Chi of a t-storm warning here. Me thinks...so we are on top so far because it is not ripe for tornadoes like to the Southwest. This is good so far tonight.

There was a map with that last post of projections for tomorrow, sorry. This is the outlook for Sunday.



Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
It was a dark and Stormy night in Chicagoland.....(well we'll take it compared to other parts of the Country!) Boom Boom...lightening here!

Tomorrow's discussion from the SPC.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MN/WI AND
NORTHWEST IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...


...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/YET AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A POWERFUL/EXTENSIVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT VERY STRONG UPPER JET /130+ KT 250-300 MB/ OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED/RELATIVELY STEADY
STATE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TODAY...AND REACH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A GENERAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MUCH OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY.


...MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
EARLY DAY CONVECTION/REMNANT IMPACTS INDUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT
IT NONETHELESS SEEMS LIKELY THAT LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWARD-MOVING
WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

EVEN WITH AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...REASONABLE CERTAINTY EXISTS THAT AT LEAST A NARROW
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL MATERIALIZE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MLCAPE TO 1000-1750 J/KG BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN MN AND PARTS OF WI/IL. INITIAL
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT...WITH A SCATTERED/BROKEN ARCING BAND OF
STORMS...SEEMS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHERN
MN.


CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE CERTAINTY/POTENTIAL
CONCENTRATION WILL BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW NEAR WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM
FRONT/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW AUGMENTATION AS
WELL. ROBUST DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...WITH STRONG/ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERY DEEP LAYER SHEAR EASILY ON THE ORDER OF
50+ KT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE MODE OF FAST
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH AN EVOLUTION TO FAST LINE
SEGMENTS/BOWS. ACCORDINGLY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEARS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...SEVERE HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. TORNADO POTENTIAL /PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG/ WILL LIKELY BE HEIGHTENED NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT/PERHAPS RESIDUAL EARLY DAY OUTFLOW.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND EAST TX/WESTERN LA...
A STRONG/EMBEDDED SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST NEAR/AHEAD OF
THE LINE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/REJUVENATION INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND LARGE SCALE FOR ASCENT/STRONG DEEP
LAYER WINDS AT LEAST GRAZE THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE
OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 04/15/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0635Z (1:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Flickerin lights....
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Zoom Zoom Rob! Thanks. Just a mix here. But, the rest is a MESS! Wow there's sooo many towns hit and there will be so many who need help. Prayers up and hope some of the preparations helped to save lives today. Another Warning SMH...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1257 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1255 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR UNDERWOOD...OR 14 MILES EAST OF OMAHA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVOCA...OAKLAND...WALNUT...HANCOCK AND MCCLELLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 58.
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 17...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 40 AND 46.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO
NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hey Jus,
Hey Ylee!

doing a latenight drive by checking on folks!
Take care!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2008 Posts: 99 Comments: 32859
Woodward, OK just tweeted they have been hit by a serious tornado and are going to need help!

Ohh nooooo. (Per Mike Hammernik - tweet - Met Chitown)

Ylee: I bet I know where that alpaca farm is! Cooool.

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
132. Ylee
If we're going to get anything out of this system, it'll be tomorrow, although the SPC aren't giving my particular area much of chance for anything rough.

If I have a chance I'll go up to the boss's 'puter. I need to give you a link about a alpaca farmer in your area.

Good year for Chicago sports so far....
Member Since: Febrero 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16046
Hi Ylee, thunder and lightening. I did see upper level rotation by Moline though. Hmmmm....
Glad to hear you are faring well in all of this. I hope it stays that way for you and your area after the last storms you had. You do not need another round for a loooong time.

Hawks win!!!
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
130. Ylee
Good evening, jus! Nice little line of storms headed your way! I assume you're hunkered down?

Tornado warning in W. Tx now...

We're getting some wind here, and it's very warm, but that's it!
Member Since: Febrero 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16046
This be me. We just got some good boomers here.

Early this morning my Daughter and I were making a joke about how this would go today. She went to school in Kenosha at Carthage College. We both said, just put a sign on the storms in Oklahoma, 'Kenosha -->>> 745 miles!'

Amazing.



... Special Weather Statement...

At 1120 PM... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Oregon to Shabbona... moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Up to penny size hail... winds greater than 40 mph... frequent cloud to
ground lightning... brief moderate downpours... are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shabbona... Oregon... Waterman...
Rochelle... Stillman Valley... Byron...
Hinckley... Hillcrest... Malta...

The following locations may also be impacted...
Boone County Fairgrounds... Elgin Community College... Lowden State
Park... northern Illinois University... Ogle County Fairgrounds... Rock
Cut State Park... Rock Valley College and Rockford Speedway.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Gusty winds may cause small objects such as trash bins to blow
around. Stay away from high objects outdoors such as trees. Heavy
rainfall could lead to standing water on roadways and poor
visibility. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure until these storms
have passed.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hi Shore, hope all your family is ok! Thanks for stopping in. Hi again BF...visiting over by you tooooo

1.25" Hail in that first band of storms just SW of Chicago.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hi jus,
Came by to see how you're doing. Was gonna bring the MCD. I see you already have it.
:)

Also see that MCS heading your way. Gosh. Have a safe night. It may be a long one.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL AND PARTS OF SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150254Z - 150430Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 172 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG/NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH MORE THAN WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION
REMAINS EVIDENT WITH THE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW
IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. AND IT APPEAR THAT CONVECTION
MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS A CONTINUING RISK FOR HAIL...INTO THE
CHICAGO...POSSIBLY MILWAUKEE...METROPOLITAN AREAS BY THE 06-08Z TIME
FRAME.

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
921 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MAHASKA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 918 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OSKALOOSA...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IMMEDIATELY SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...
OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...SEEK
SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND THE
LOWEST SPOT AVAILABLE AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT...ACT QUICKLY. TAKE COVER
NOW!

Centered on Fremont, Iowa (YO cell)

Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
My cousins in Wichita are directly under the gun now - new tornado warning for them. Other Kansas friends seem to have escaped - glad I'm not living at the old home place in Iowa just now. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feeling very torn about posting severe thunderstorms for Illinois but it does show the progress and immense nature of this system.
I understand their are huge wedge tornadoes in Kansas :( just going to post the radars unless there is a tornado warned situation in Iowa, IL or WI.


Severe has moved into Illinois with one severe thunderstorm warning.


Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA


ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR VERY
STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..GUYER.. 04/15/2012
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Texas Storm Chasers just re-tweeted a hospital was hit in Iowa by a tornado, too. I did not see any reports of injuries yet. Link from Twitter:

Link


Have been zooming around seeing all the links to live coverage of the multiple vortex tornadoes in Oklahoma etc... Just Amazing! Ok back to the


New Watch Issued for Iowa and into a bit of Illinois:




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF
MOLINE ILLINOIS TO 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 167...WW 169...WW
170...WW 171...

DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO OVER CNTRL IA WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 40-50 KT
WITHIN TERMINUS OF 50-60 KT LLJ. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN NEAR OR
JUST E OF THE MS RIVER.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.


Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
Hey Jus!
Just peeking in to see how y'all are doing up there.
Be safe!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2008 Posts: 99 Comments: 32859
Even a blind squirrel... ;)

Wow, holding my breath for all of the states involved this weekend! Nice to see you here and hope the rest of the day is safe for you and yours. Dau and FSIL are supposed to go to his parents near Piedmont after his work. They have a storm shelter.
Probably won't post much. I'm not skilled enough and the experts are needed. We didn't go to Fermilab. We are going to watch it online later.

Take care all!
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
You nailed it.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
Don't know why I'm fixated on Minneapolis and some parts of WI? Guess because I live in this area. There is nothing to support it scientifically. Except I know from living around here how things track out of Iowa.

Ummmm...
:)

Moderate risk bullseye over WI.

Day 2 outlook, 12:30 cdt. Please click graphic for complete outlook.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
116. Ylee
Hi, jus! thought I'd drop this off, since I'm up!



Notice the highest prob. is in Iowa. Your dau is still under the gun, but it don't look as bad now. As for the IA storms making it to you, although anything is possible, it should poop out before it makes it to you, IMO!

Take care!
Member Since: Febrero 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16046
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1147 PM CDT Friday Apr 13 2012



Discussion...


A strong vertically stacked circulation over SW Minnesota at middle
afternoon will continue moving north-northeast this evening. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms just ahead of the trough axis will scoot
across the Minnesota County Warning Area through early this evening. As this occurs...the
strong southeast surface winds over the eastern and southern County Warning Area will
subside with the Wind Advisory expiring at 7 PM.


In the wake of this system...weak ridging will move in overnight
and for part of Saturday. Dry weather is forecast along with a
decrease in clouds. This will lead to a warm Saturday afternoon
with highs now forecast to each the upper 60s to lower 70s. This may
still be too low if the increase in cloudiness during the
afternoon holds off longer than forecast.


This increase in cloudiness is ahead of a low pressure storm
system over Colorado
that will be moving northeast on Saturday
and pass across the forecast area on Sunday. The low and a strong warm front
extending to the east will be the focus for severe weather
Saturday afternoon across eastern NE and Iowa. Some showers and
thunderstorms will likely push into southern Minnesota during the late
afternoon hours. As the warm front moves into the County Warning Area Saturday
night...showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread.
There seems to be a credible threat for severe storms during the
night from the Twin Cities on west and south...with high emphasis
across southwest and south central Minnesota. The amount of low level
shear increases during the evening with 0-1km bulk shear at or
above 40 knots on several solutions for southwest and south
central Minnesota. Severe weather parameters are such that tornadoes
would be possible along the warm front in southern Minnesota. Recent
research done here by devinny and hultquist show that this type
of upper pattern (southwest flow archetype) was the only one that
had strong nighttime tornadoes in our forecast area. More
distressing is watching the cips warm season analogs. Yesterday
the number 5 analog was March 29 1998. Today this analog has moved
to number 3. Hence...Saturday night is an intense period of
interest.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
bucketpic">

Ok Photobucket changed and it stinks. Just can't find the things I want in the editing. Why do they have to change the stuff. Nevermind... It's just aggravating when trying to post a bucket picture.

Oh btw, thinking of doing the Fermilab thing from the comfort of my puter tomorrow. Not traveling. With gas prices...eh you know...and storms out and about. Wanted to go live, but...think could just stream it.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130
I'm in for the duration waiting for the 1! and responding to questions. I should open the Shell 'Vague' answer blog, lol!!! (sorry, inside joke)
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 86 Comments: 10130

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About juslivn

Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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