The tropics are continuing to burst out in activity with both basins getting rather busy, but the Atlantic is where the most action is happening.
Hurricane Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto, with winds of 80 MPH, is very close to landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico which should occur sometime later tonight at a similar intensity if not a bit higher. If you are in the hurricane warning area and have not made your preparations yet, you should do it quick and in a hurry as tropical storm conditions are already starting to affect the coastline. After exiting the Yucatan, Mainland Mexico is next and final--landfall intensity may also be at hurricane strength so everyone under a watch or warning should prepare for potentially dangerous flooding and damaging winds.
TS Gilma
Tropical Storm Gilma is in the Eastern Pacific, strengthening with 45 MPH winds, and further strengthening is forecast before hitting cooler waters by Thursday and this one briefly attaining hurricane intensity by that time is certainly a possibility but this is not a threat to land so just a fish spinner to watch as it swims out at sea.
Invest 92L
The area of interest 92L has organized a bit since last blog post but its shower activity remains disorganized. It still could additionally develop somewhat (though not much) under marginal upper-level
winds but the chances of a TD forming out of this area of interest in the short-term...not very high, at this time. NHC gives this still a 20% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon. Some models do aim this at the Northern Lesser Antilles similar to Ernesto, others take it more north. It's not an immediate threat to land, even if it does develop.
Other AOIs
There are 2 other tropical disturbances which have been noted by the NHC but neither are an immediate threat to land nor are they to expected to significantly develop in the short range.
I'll post again tomorrow.
