Back to The List, part 2

By: hcubed , 12:32 PM GMT en Mayo 01, 2012

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So back to The List.

The second thing mentioned was "...global water shortages - droughts are becoming more commonplace, and severe..."

I'm surprised they didn't mention increased flooding - because according to the believers, both events are a sure sign of CAGW.

So let's review a recent forecast from the Met Office in England, so we can see what we're facing:

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

CONTEXT:
As a legacy of dry weather over many months water resources in much of southern, eastern and central England remain at very low levels. Winter rainfall in these areas has typically been about 70% of average, whilst observations and current forecasts suggest that the final totals for March will be below average here too. The Environment Agency advises that, given the current state of soils and groundwater levels in these areas, drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.

So there you have it - the forecast for drought in England is virtually inevitable.

So bad is the predicted drought, they've issued a "hosepipe ban" for certain areas (restrictions on use of your outdoor water hose).

Guess what - massive rains just hit.

"...It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.

Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.

Flood warnings are in place with up to 20mm to 30mm of rain forecast for southern England on Monday night.

The Met Office has issued an amber warning with severe weather expected in parts of Devon, Dorst and Somerset.

It says further flooding is possible and driving conditions may be difficult.

There are 37 flood warnings in place, including 20 in south-west England and a handful each in the Midlands, north-east England and East Anglia. There are also 155 less serious alerts..."

Re-read that forecast again. First: "...slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months..."

If the wettest April in 100 years was predicted as the DRIEST of the three months, then watch out for May and June. You'll need a snorkel to walk your dog.

Second part of the forecast: "...The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)..."

They said that the three month period of April-May-June had a 10-15 percent chance of falling into the "wettest" category. They may still be accurate; they still have two months to go.

Of course, as I said earlier, both the predicted drought and the actual flooding fall into the believer's CAGW scenario.

To carry this idea further, we'll look at the reason for these floodroughts in our next post: increased/decreased water vapor in the air. Place your bets on which one it is.

BTW, I'll use this entry to be proving a point, too:

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/ 02/24/update-on-global-drought-patterns-ipcc-take- note/

As a hint - you might want to look at the following paper:

Sheffield, J., K.M. Andreadis, E.F. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Global and Continental Drought in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century: Severity–Area–Duration Analysis and Temporal Variability of Large-Scale Events. Journal of Climate, 22, 1962-1981.

Just one more peer-reviewed paper to look at, in which they analyzed drought patterns at the global scale for the period 1950 to 2000, and found no evidence to support claims of increasing drought activity.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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