The weekend ahead, and long range pattern thoughts.
I apologize for not having an entry in a while, I have neglected to make entries in a while until the topic of blogs came up in a discussion with a friend. I fully intend to make at least bi-weekly posts from now on, and to keep them as simple as possible.
This next week looks very interesting from a precipitation standpoint, as there will finally be temperatures cold enough for a snowstorm, and there will be a storm that tries to grab enough cold air and move close enough to shore to create a slight possibility for a snow shower in our area on Saturday afternoon.
GFS 12Z run valid at 6AM on Saturday via PSU e-wall
I do think that the system will be tracking a little farther north than the computer models are suggesting, as there has been a southern bias all winter with theses storm types.
In the short range, a warm front is lifting northward in association with a storm which is currently bringing severe thunderstorms and flooding to Texas and Louisiana.
NCEP/NOAA forecast for about noon tomorrow showing rain moving towards the greater D.C area.
Some of this rain may be heavy, and don't be shocked if there is a rumble of thunder in the heavier bands of shower activity.
After this system moves through, a shot of fresh arctic air moves into the eastern third of the nation behind a cold front. Temperatures will be much more seasonable, and there might be a few flurries around with a weak disturbance that comes through on Sunday night, but with no accumulations expected. Below is the expected surface analysis for noon on Sunday:
Afterwards, a southwesterly flow similar to what we have seen for the last two days should set up bringing another round of unseasonably warm high temperatures next week.
Sorry snow lovers, but this is NOT the winter for you. The long range ensembles show fleeting cold shots, but a warm pattern more typical for March is dominating the country, and has been since November. I don't expect a shift in the next few weeks, and by the time such a shift does occur, it will be too late to cause snow issues in most of the Northeast.
I will be back in a few days with updates and possibly a look back on the winter so far.