Skyepony's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Skyepony, 2:52 PM GMT en Julio 01, 2012 | +6 |
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75 ° F
Lluvia débil
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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
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| Elevation: | 29 ft |
| Temperatura: | 74.7 ° F |
| Punto de rocío: | 72.5 ° F |
| Humedad: | 93% |
| Viento: | 2.0 mph from the Sur |
| Ráfagas de viento: | 2.0 mph |
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Updated: 3:25 AM EDT en Junio 18, 2013
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
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| Elevation: | 2540 ft |
| Temperatura: | 66.4 ° F |
| Punto de rocío: | 63.7 ° F |
| Humedad: | 91% |
| Viento: | Sin viento |
| Ráfagas de viento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 3:25 AM EDT en Junio 18, 2013
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
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| Elevation: | 2376 ft |
| Temperatura: | 65.0 ° F |
| Punto de rocío: | 65.0 ° F |
| Humedad: | 100% |
| Viento: | Sin viento |
| Ráfagas de viento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 2:42 AM EDT en Junio 18, 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERDIE
11:00 PM PhST July 20 2012
=============================================
Tropical Depression Ferdie has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a west northwest direction
At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ferdie located at 18.5°N 122.6°E or 95 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
Luzon Region
--------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Islands
5. Batanes Group of Islands
6. Kalinga
7. Apayao
8. Abra
9. Ilocos
10. Norte
11. Ilocos Sur
12. Mt. Province
Potential Wind Impacts
========================
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the
ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant
damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially
unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is
risky
Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10–25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Tropical Depression “Ferdie” is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression “Ferdie” and the southwest monsoon.
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 95 km west southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (17.3°N, 119.5°E).
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERDIE
5:00 AM PhST July 21 2012
=============================================
Tropical Depression "FERDIE" has slightly accelerated as it continues to traverse Balintang Channel
At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ferdie located at 19.1°N 121.4°E or 80 km north northwest of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
Luzon Region
--------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan Grp of Is
4. Babuyan Gr of Is
5. Batanes Gr of Is
6. Kalinga
7. Apayao
8. Abra
9. Ilocos Norte
10. Ilocos Sur
11. Mt. Province
Potential Wind Impacts
========================
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the
ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant
damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially
unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is
risky
Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Tropical Depression "Ferdie" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression "Ferdie" and the southwest monsoon.
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 150 km West Southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (17.7°N, 119.0°E).
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Interesting to the Atlantic waters is the LA blob which may persist another day or more & the wave over Hispaniola which looks to be coming to South Fl & then Central FL very late Sunday through maybe Wed.
Hades~ Thanks for the updates:)
Bogon~ Awesome choice there. Love the subtleties, those chickens can throw some dirt too..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
9:00 AM JST July 21 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 19.3N 119.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.3N 117.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
Okay by me. Don't mind the shade, let's just have the LA blob and the wave out of the way by Thurs. Don't wanna make that trip to MCO in a depression. Traffic was bad enough yesterday.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERDIE
11:00 AM PhST July 21 2012
=============================================
Tropical Depression "FERDIE" has crossed the Balintang Channel and merged with the Low Pressure Area over the West Philippine Sea.
At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ferdie located at 18.7°N 119.2°E or 130 km northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. Abra
Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is heavy to intense (10-25 mm per hour) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides due to enhanced southwest monsoon especially the western section of Luzon and Visayas.
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression "FERDIE" and the southwest monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
& Ship tracks as they were drawn into the circulation center of dying Fabio (along with the other ship tracks approaching the storm from the south).
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (1208)
21:00 PM JST July 21 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vicente (996 hPa) located at 19.5N 117.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.2N 114.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.6N 112.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.0N 108.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Gulf of Tonkin
Hades~ I see NAVY has gone with VICENTE.
Rob~ You should be all good. Saharan Dust is my biggest complaint.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (1208)
3:00 AM JST July 22 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vicente (992 hPa) located at 19.5N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.1N 113.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.6N 110.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.9N 107.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Gulf of Tonkin
Our early week blob is a few hours ahead of schedule. Should kinda flare out & diminish before it really gets over FL but still enhance our chance of afternoon rain the next few days.
Good time to harvest & tie up tomatoes in the wild garden.
Clouds are coming bigger & faster from the east than this morning.
Rob~ They've had a few dry years over there in Africa now.. After this blob rolls out it should be some of the thickest we've seen so far this year.
Hades~ I should put some models up. Thanks.
Hope everything was OK at your house.
There is a video here someone took near Pineda, at Rotary Park, on the river of the winds here today. Also said about 2500 lost power.
About 3:30 p.m., Melbourne police responded to the northern end of Pineapple Avenue after a man tumbled from a boat into the Indian River Lagoon during the storm.
He escaped injury, Sgt. Cheryl Trainer said.
Two men were trapped in a sailboat during a squall after the vessel struck the Eau Gallie Causeway, breaking its mast, Trainer said.
Another boater towed the sailboat to shore. (I saw this going on when I came back over the causeway)
In Cocoa Beach, a strong gust sent a windsurfer flying into sand dunes by Doubletree Cocoa Beach Oceanfront, said Eisen Witcher, Brevard County Ocean Rescue assistant chief.
The windsurfer was not injured, he said.
Blob part 2 lurks offshore. Can hear the occasional boom from a cloud to ground to the east. Cat refused to go out, tormented children, then took to her lair. Ponies are eating hay in the barn.
2012JUL23 160100 5.3 947.0/ +0.8 / 97.2
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON VICENTE (1208)
21:00 PM JST July 23 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vicente (970 hPa) located at 21.1N 114.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.5N 110.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Near Hong Kong
48 HRS: 22.3N 106.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
JTWC (Hawaii): 120 knots
RSMC (Japan): 65 knots (10 min sustained wind avg)
CMA (China): 80 knots (2 min sustained wind avg)
HKO (Hong Kong): 85 knots (10 min sustained wind avg)
PAGASA (Philippines): out of area of responsibility (10 minute sustained wind avg)
2012JUL23 183200 5.8 933.3/ 0.8 /109.8
Wab~ Here's hoping your power holds:)
Hoping power holds too !!!
Wab~ Be safe. That's more dangerous than a tropical storm.
Here is late Sept 2007..melts up to pink & purple..
Today..
barges stacked up in some places where only a single line of barges are able to pass ..
Wabit~ Perhaps an increase in trucking & fuel too, if this keeps up?
Plant above crops now!
Turns out that was a controlled burn at KSC.
I think there will be many weighing the benefit of a break in the drought & heat against the price of severe weather today..
Stay safe everyone..Straight line winds & hail are the biggest concerns. Click pic for more.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST July 27 2012
=====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.0N 131.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
9:00 AM JST July 27 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Ogasawara Waters
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 23.4N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 145.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
------------------------------------------------- ----
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
9:00 AM JST July 27 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.6N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 12.4N 128.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Thanks Hades.
Finally the brown downer has shuffled off toward Africa, and the green rising phase of the MJO has arrived in the eastern Pacific.
There's a blob moving west at 15N 40W. This morning's models don't develop this wave into a hurricane, but it will give us something to watch. It should bring enhanced rain chances to the Antilles starting Monday.
ROFL :)))
"Welcome to Florida"
ASCAT just missed the Central Atlantic wave. Here's OSCAT from lastnight.
Those storm yesterday killed atleast two. More is expected today..stay safe!
Finn~ Thanks for bring that. I hope it passes.
Bogon~ MJO really got itself bundled up into one mass at the moment. This forecast is calling for it to be slightly weaker than the last. Hard to say though. Seen most the MJO forecasts flounder the last few weeks.
Shep~ It was a moment that the tourists were easily discerned from the natives..
I don't put much faith in MJO forecasts either. If you read the explanatory notes at CPC's MJO page, it says that the predictions are experimental. Weather models don't (yet) reliably reproduce the MJO phenomenon.
That's why I like to post the little infrared / velocity anomaly chart. It gives a good idea what the MJO was doing a couple of days ago, which is about as close as most of us can come to understanding it. :o)
Tropical clouds are smiling at 93W flooding the Philippines... Cloudsat of the low that makes the right eye in the smiley face in the WPAC (left eye is 95W).
OSCAT
Bogon~ I like that one alot too. Thanks for posting it. MJO sites shuffled around alot in the last year. I don't think I could find it quick at the moment.
I have a hard time picking a favorite. They all have ways of picking out different things. Here's one of my favs.. Something about graphing the world & mjo strength like that.
Easy way to decipher the zone it's in for comparing to climo for where tropical storms might form that month with MJO in that place. We are just about pare for zone 5 month of July.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
9:00 AM JST July 28 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Saola (1000 hPa) located at 14.5N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 17.3N 125.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
24 HRS: 18.6N 124.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
24 HRS: 19.6N 123.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -------
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
9:00 AM JST July 28 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Ogasawara Waters
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 26.3N 146.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 27.2N 145.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENER (SAOLA)
11:00 AM PhST July 28 2012
================================
At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Gener (Saola) located at 14.5°N 126.9°E or 250 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.
Additional Information
=========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Tropical Depression “Gener” is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression “Gener” and the southwest monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM GENER (SAOLA)
5:00 PM PhST July 28 2012
================================
"GENER" intensified rapidly into a tropical storm while moving in a north northwest direction
At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 15.4°N 126.3°E or 250 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
================
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan Grp of Isl
4. Babuyan Grp of Isl
5. Batanes Grp of Isl
Additional Information
=========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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