Jasmine Weakening; Newly Developed Giovanna Now A Cyclone
Cyclone Jasmine has been on a weakening trend for the past day or so, after peaking in intensity at 115 knots, a minimal category 4 system. Jasmine threaded the needle passing directly in between New Caledonia, and Vanuatu yesterday morning. Wind shear is currently in the moderate range of 20-30 knots, and will be on the increase as Jasmine heads southeast today and tonight, further weakening the system, probably below cyclone status. Dry air has been pressing on the system from the west, and is starting to wrapp itself into the northern side of Jasmine.
Satellite image of cyclone Jasmine at peak intensity as a category 4 system, credit: NASA
Forecast for Jasmine
Jasmine is located to the north of a strengthening subtropical ridge, and this should turn Jasmine to the east today, while weakening. The system should then turn to the northeast, dissipating as a tropical depression. Wind shear and dry air should be able to kill the system before it affects the islands of Fiji.
Current IR satellite image of Jasmine, credit: NOAA
Tropical Cyclone 12S(Giovanna) Forms
Just yesterday as of 1500Z, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its first public advisory on tropical cyclone 12S, now named Giovanna. The system has been steadily strengthening, now at an intensity of 65 knots. Microwave imagery shows no clear eye, but last visible images show a dip in the center of Giovanna, and strong convective banding on the north and west sides. The environment around Giovanna is moist, and dry air should not be a problem with intensification. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 29C, whic supports further strengthening of this system also.
Indian ocean IR satellite image, with Giovanna located east of Madagascar.
Forecast For Giovanna
A subtropical ridge is located to the south of the system, which will have Giovanna moving in an east-southeast direction for the next few days. the official intensity forecast from the JTWC is steady strengthening through hour 36, peaking at 110 knots, or a strong category 3 system. Weakening follows as the system approaches southern/central Madagascar. The islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues, Reunion, and Madagascar should closely monitor the strength and direction of this strengthening system in the coming days.
Thats it for today, thanks for stopping in and I hope you all have a blessed weekend ahead of you!