Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Cancun and News
Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 2:12 AM GMT en Noviembre 11, 2010 +2
Cancun and News

My recent blogs have been long analyses of climate change science and politics and communication and organization. I am delighted to have seen them propagate around, both publically and not – for example American Meteorology Society. It’s very gratifying to see others use and improve on what one does. This entry is going to be far simpler. A little about Cancun Conference of the Parties, Roger Pielke Jr.’s new book, Merapi volcano, and some news from Pakistan. OK, it’s news.

Cancun, Conference of the Parties - 16: A year ago, November 2009, I was planning a trip to the Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen. The Conference of the Parties (COP) are the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Before Copenhagen there was great energy, with some notion that the Copenhagen meeting would lead to a breakthrough on international climate change agreements. Of course, that did not happen and while there was spin that the meeting was a success, most people that I know were not enthusiastic about the outcome. (The Copenhagen Accord) My take of the outcome was that there was symbolic political recognition that global warming needed to be addressed, but no substantive steps were taken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Plus, the political, economic and technological realities are that we will not see international agreement on reducing emissions anytime soon. It will be much longer before there is any real reduction of emissions. (Here are student blogs and my blogs from last year. UoM and Alma Students, Rood)

I am not going to Cancun. There is a group of students from Michigan and Alma going this year, and again, they will be blogging from the meeting on the Climate Blue website. This year my expectations are (even) lower than last year. The U.S. is further away from a national position than a year ago, and without the U.S. having a coherent voice, then there is no real way to be effective in the U.N. And, of course, there is no real international desire for a climate treaty. The press and the politicians are not playing up this meeting. There will still be thousands of people and lots of action on the ground; people will still look for opportunities and build towards the future.

The intractable nature of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy is one of the reasons that I advocate exposing and scaling up of local and commercial activities ( here).

Roger Pielke Jr: On October 25, 2010 Roger Pielke Jr spoke at the Ford School at the University of Michigan. ( Pielke Seminar) I was the commentator at the presentation. Roger was talking about material in his new book, The Climate Fix. Roger Pielke Jr. is a highly controversial, strongly stated political scientist who is expert in climate change. He is a prolific and early blogger. The gist of his talk was that what we are doing now to develop climate policy does not work, and it is time to consider the underlying reasons why and to do something different. There were those in audience who expected me to take exception to this message, but I did not. My experience over the past five years is that what we are doing on the international level to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is broken and that there are fundamental reasons why. At the center of reasons, we don’t really have any market-viable alternative energy sources and no technological ways to abate the emission of carbon dioxide. This, in combination with our imperatives for economic growth (read, energy use), makes the situation currently intractable. Combine that with the political realities, we do have to do something different. Pielke Jr. provides a more thorough, more quantitative, and controversial analysis of this situation (The Climate Fix).

Merapi Volcano: Some time ago I wrote a piece called Climate, Belief and the Volcano. In that piece I wrote about Mr. Marijan who was the spirit keeper of the volcano. In these recent eruptions Mr. Marijan died.

Pakistan: I am certain to maintain an interest in Pakistan far longer than the average disaster attention span. My youngest sister Elizabeth is Counsel General in Peshawar so I keep an eye on the news. I saw her this past week (a good thing), and it is a tough, tough place to be. Flood wise, there is progress in the Northwest, and there are efforts to plant winter wheat. Sindh, in the South, is still flooded. One thing Elizabeth pointed out to me that the flood had deposited 12 feet of silt in places, and amongst other things the land was now higher than the irrigation systems. UNICEF says they are running out of money, food, and vaccines, and a bad situation is likely to get worse. Attention to the Pakistan flood is moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative. (Pakistan Flooding: A Climate Disaster, Yours truly on Chicago-based Radio Islam, Rood interview)

Here are some places that my sister has recommended for the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Organizations she sees.

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com

UNICEF Donations



Figure 1. Despair of Pakistan’s forgotten flood victims: BBC coverage of continuing flood in Pakistan



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Reader Comments
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51. cyclonebuster 3:40 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Quoting EnergyMoron:


The Purgen project is commericially viable even without subsidies owing to the high cost of electricity in the New Jersey area.

There are a lot of venture capitalists out there who would be more than happy to fund a demonstratably potentially viable energy project.

PG&E just cancelled their wave power trial a few weeks ago...


Again Calculate the Kinetic Energy in the Gulfstream! Ya'll still don't get it yet do you?
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52. cyclonebuster 4:10 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Ouch!
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53. cyclonebuster 4:15 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
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54. cyclonebuster 4:19 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
NASA reports 2010 hottest year on record so far
November 11, 2010

Last month, NASA reported it was the hottest January-September on record. That followed a terrific analysis, “July 2010 — What Global Warming Looks Like,” which noted that 2010 is “likely” to be warmest year on record.

This month continues the trend of 2010 outpacing previous years, according to NASA:

Link
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55. cyclonebuster 4:26 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Warmest January to October Period on Record
Nov 11, 2010; 3:51 PM ET

The period from January 2010 to October 2010 was the warmest Jan-Oct period on record globally, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Records go back to 1880.

Link
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57. cyclonebuster 4:33 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Just wow... I can't imagine flooding so severe that almost half a year after it started, many places are STILL flooded - and it may be another half year before it goes down:

Up to six more months of Pakistan flood water: EU official

(AFP) – 2 days ago

ISLAMABAD — A senior EU aid official warned Friday that flood waters could linger up to another six months in Pakistan, where he said the magnitude of the crisis meant people were still going without aid.

"There is nearly water everywhere," Peter Zangl, the director general of the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), told a news conference in Islamabad after a five-day visit to Pakistan.

Unprecedented monsoon rains triggered catastrophic flooding across Pakistan in July and August, ravaging an area roughly the size of England and affecting 21 million people in the poverty-stricken country's worst natural disaster.

Parts of Sindh province remain under water in southern Pakistan, where people are still camping on roadsides after the floods washed away their homes and swallowed up rice and wheat fields.

"The only perspective of getting rid of the water is evaporation. Depending on depth and climate conditions, this will take between two and six months," Zangl told reporters.


Fact is, something on that scale is probably connected to climate change more than just casually (warming results in more moisture and thus heavier rainfall). The last part in particular is striking - if the water can only evaporate, then that makes an even stronger case for the rains being so unprecedented - otherwise those areas would be lakes if such rains were normal. And yes, the rains were unprecedented, up to 16 feet in several days, and in an area that is already pretty wet (see previous sentence regarding standing water and lakes):

In more than 60 hours of non-stop torrential rainfall, the floods washed all that away. The north-west normally receives 500mm (20in) of rain in the month of July; over one five-day period 5,000mm fell. "It was incredible," said Sameenullah Afridi, a local United Nations official.


To much heat causes to much water vapor which can cause to much flooding! Thanks GHGs! We need to cool it just like the movie. I showed you how to cool it! Now will you all listen to me?
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59. cyclonebuster 4:42 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
img src="">
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60. cyclonebuster 4:44 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Cool it get it?
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62. cyclonebuster 4:51 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
The only way our planet cools now is through massive upwelling events and those must be man made! I just don't see us stopping GHGs.
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63. cyclonebuster 5:42 AM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Top priority is to cool the oceans then stop GHGs.

img src="">
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65. cyclonebuster 9:59 PM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
No wonder Michael!
Below 2007 again! Ouch!


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66. cyclonebuster 10:10 PM GMT en Noviembre 15, 2010    
Would someone please give the North Arctic a shot of more freon so as to cool the Northern hemisphere some more?
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69. cyclonebuster 12:59 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
CB -JHEEEZ!

Anyway the Dengue situation in Pakistan in most assuredly worse than is being reported and state run hospitals don't seem to have the necessary supplies to deal with it:

Journalist dies of dengue fever

As per details obtained from his family members, Saud Malik was admitted to Services Hospital Lahore some five days back with symptoms of dengue fever.

The doctors asked his relatives to take the patient to some private clinic, saying the hospital had run short of necessary platelets kits.


LOL! I know just a figure of speech! Some So2 may work however.BTW just how much cooler could all that deep cold ocean water make the Earth?
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70. cyclonebuster 1:46 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
Heat Stress to Caribbean Corals in 2005 Worst on Record
Caribbean Reef Ecosystems May Not Survive Repeated Stress

November 15, 2010

NOAA diver with a one square meter quadrat examining a bleached reef (Montastraea) colony in St. Croix, USVI in Oct., 2005.

NOAA diver with a one square meter quadrat examining a bleached reef (Montastraea) colony in St. Croix, USVI in Oct., 2005.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Coral reefs suffered record losses as a consequence of high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in 2005 according to the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date. Collaborators from 22 countries report that more than 80 percent of surveyed corals bleached and over 40 percent of the total surveyed died, making this the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. The study appears in PLoS ONE, an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication.

Link
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71. cyclonebuster 1:58 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
How long would it take a catagory 5 hurricane parked in one spot over the Gulfstream to upwell enough cold water to restore the Northern Arctic Ice during the summer to pre-industrial revolution extents?
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76. cyclonebuster 6:10 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
So if the hurricane stayed parked in the same spot for ten years and upwelled waters 20 degrees cooler to the surface it would have no cooling effect for the rest of the Atlantic Basin? I find that very very hard to believe Michael!
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77. cyclonebuster 6:22 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
Earth's Lower Atmosphere Is Warming, Review of Four Decades of Scientific Literature Concludes

ScienceDaily (Nov. 16, 2010) — The troposphere, the lower part of the atmosphere closest to the Earth, is warming and this warming is broadly consistent with both theoretical expectations and climate models, according to a new scientific study that reviews the history of understanding of temperature changes and their causes in this key atmospheric layer.Scientists at NOAA, the NOAA-funded Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS), the United Kingdom Met Office, and the University of Reading in the United Kingdom contributed to the paper, "Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an Ongoing Controversy," a review of four decades of data and scientific papers to be published by Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, a peer-reviewed journal.

The paper documents how, since the development of the very first climate models in the early 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the Earth's surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This expectation has not significantly changed even with major advances in climate models and is in accord with our basic physical understanding of atmospheric processes.

In the 1990s, observations did not show the troposphere, particularly in the tropics, to be warming, even though surface temperatures were rapidly warming. This lack of tropospheric warming was used by some to question both the reality of the surface warming trend and the reliability of climate models as tools. This new paper extensively reviews the relevant scientific analyses -- 195 cited papers, model results and atmospheric data sets -- and finds that there is no longer evidence for a fundamental discrepancy and that the troposphere is warming.

"Looking at observed changes in tropospheric temperature and climate model expectations over time, the current evidence indicates that no fundamental discrepancy exists, after accounting for uncertainties in both the models and observations," said Peter Thorne, a senior scientist with CICS in Asheville, N.C., and a senior researcher at North Carolina State University. CICS is a consortium jointly led by the University of Maryland and North Carolina State University.

This paper demonstrates the value of having various types of measurements -- from surface stations to weather balloons to satellites -- as well as multiple independent analyses of data from these observation systems.

Link
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79. cyclonebuster 10:15 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
What's the white dot and box around it represent?
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81. cyclonebuster 10:29 PM GMT en Noviembre 16, 2010    
Quoting MichaelSTL:


That is the latest reading; the reason why it is by itself is because the previous days were missing and the graphing program only connects adjacent days with data, skipping missing days. Here are the last few days as indicated in the text file (temperature in Kelvins):

11/08 252.712
11/09 252.694
11/10 252.680
11/11 -999.000
11/12 -999.000
11/13 -999.000
11/14 252.424

Sometimes, instead of marking missing data as -999, it uses 0, which then screws up the calculation of this year relative to last year (that is why it sometimes shows readings that are hundreds of degrees warmer or cooler, mainly for SST data, which incidentally, has gone up again).


A few more data points and we should get the line back correct?
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88. cyclonebuster 1:05 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
If the deep dark red is cold anomaly it looks like its absolutely frigid. I better fire up my bituminous coal tv set tonight.  


I think Martini is reading that chart bassackwards! LOL!
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89. cyclonebuster 1:13 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:



Wow.

Personal attacks, calling people morons. Neither MichaelSTL nor cyclonebuster are morons.

Furthermore, the earth is warmer than last year and 2010 will be the warmest year on record.

So you personally attack people and lie and tell people to shut up.

martinitony is just a worthless troll. And henceforth ignored. Or maybe not, might be good to keep an eye on the troll.


DoverWxwatcher,

Thanks for your response to this individual who needs more tutoring!
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90. cyclonebuster 1:25 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
Cool It movie question?

If you cool the oceans does this cool the planet?

Yes or No and why?
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92. cyclonebuster 1:33 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
What holds more heat Earths Oceans or Earths crust?
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94. biff4ugo 6:04 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
that talk by Rodger Pilke Jr. was very challenging. His change in perspective on the challenges, motivations, and issues is refreshing. I was glad to see our energy/unit produced has been on a reduction trend.

His formula for balancing the intractable Carbon issue, with Population, GDP, and Technology development is also useful for the intractable water resource shortage issue.
Population, Growth, and technology are all in the same parts of the equation and conservation/technology is the only part that can viably be manipulated with any chance of success. It has produced drip irrigation, low flow toilets and showerheads, Zeriscaping, etc.
Similar to the carbon problem, we need a grip on how rapidly we need to improve conservation, reuse, and wise use infrastructure.
Member Since: Diciembre 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1185
96. cyclonebuster 9:27 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
How do you say "tunnel" in Japanese?:

"submarine"


Japanese Company Hopes to Deploy Fleets of Submarines to Stop Typhoons


Typhoons threaten the western Pacific relentlessly year-round,
dogging coastal cities along the eastern coast of Asia and sometimes
unleashing devastating power that can cost human lives. But even as
Taiwan and China clean up after Typhoon Fanapi flooded streets and
claimed a handful of lives earlier this month, a Japanese company has
patented a scheme that uses submarines to downgrade the force of typhoons as they threaten to make landfall.
Under the plan, a fleet of about 20 subs would dive some 100 feet
below the surface just in front of an approaching storm. Each submarine
would be fitted with eight pumps capable of quickly dumping more than
500 tons of chilled water per minute into the water above.




JFLORIDA,
I already thought of this idea long ago to place scoops on a fleet of nuclear subs that would thrust cold water upward in front of the storms. However, they didn't produce electrical power to reduce GHGs and the fuel they burn would also warm the oceans thus causing more global warming. The Tunnels are a better option according to the hurricane center!
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97. cyclonebuster 10:00 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
oops
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99. cyclonebuster 10:28 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
As Arctic Temperatures Rise, Tundra Fires Increase

ScienceDaily (Nov. 17, 2010) — In September, 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire burned more than 1,000 square kilometers of tundra on Alaska's North Slope, doubling the area burned in that region since record keeping began in 1950. A new analysis of sediment cores from the burned area revealed that this was the most destructive tundra fire at that site for at least 5,000 years. Models built on 60 years of climate and fire data found that even moderate increases in warm-season temperatures in the region dramatically increase the likelihood of such fires.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
you did it again?


JFLORIDA,

Sorry! LOL!
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100. cyclonebuster 10:29 PM GMT en Noviembre 17, 2010    
As Arctic Temperatures Rise, Tundra Fires Increase

ScienceDaily (Nov. 17, 2010) — In September, 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire burned more than 1,000 square kilometers of tundra on Alaska's North Slope, doubling the area burned in that region since record keeping began in 1950. A new analysis of sediment cores from the burned area revealed that this was the most destructive tundra fire at that site for at least 5,000 years. Models built on 60 years of climate and fire data found that even moderate increases in warm-season temperatures in the region dramatically increase the likelihood of such fires.The study was published this October in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

After the Anaktuvuk fire, University of Illinois plant biology professor Feng Sheng Hu sought to answer a simple question: Was this seemingly historic fire an anomaly, or were large fires a regular occurrence in the region?

"If such fires occur every 200 years or every 500 years, it's a natural event," Hu said. "But another possibility is that these are truly unprecedented events caused by, say, greenhouse warming."

On a trip to Alaska in 2008, Hu chartered a helicopter to the region of the Anaktuvuk fire and collected sediment cores from two affected lakes. He and his colleagues analyzed the distribution of charcoal particles in these cores and used established techniques to determine the approximate ages of different sediment layers.

The team found no evidence of a fire of similar scale and intensity in sediments representing roughly 5,000 years at that locale.

Link
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About RickyRood
I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles include ideas from the course. And no tuition!

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