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Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Isaac (2:30p.m EDT)

Posted by: MiamiHurricanes09, 6:33 PM GMT en Agosto 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac
A Reconnaissance aircraft is current en route to investigate Tropical Storm Isaac this early afternoon, and it appears that as if it has just begun to descend as I write this paragraph. Nevertheless, I'll just get into the analysis.

Satellite imagery from this morning suggested that Isaac made landfall over the extreme southeastern Cuban coast and spent an approximation of about 90 minutes inland before emerging back into the southwestern Atlantic waters. What was quite interesting is the manner in which it emerged, because as I observed on Dr. Masters' blog a few hours ago, it appeared as if the cyclone essentially started moving due north right after moving inland, so that optimally minimized any disorganization that the circulation may have suffered should it have taken a more westward track over the rough Cuban topography. As of right now, it does appear that that short-term motion has halted, and it may have bended slightly towards the right as of late, and a mean motion of towards the northwest of about 14.5kt/320˚ seems like a very solid bet at this moment.

Now that the circulation is over toasty Atlantic waters, I expect intensification to resume later this evening, likely becoming a category 1 hurricane by the time the sun rises in the morning as it moves towards the northwest. I expect tropical storm conditions to start to affect southern Florida and the Keys on Sunday afternoon, followed by hurricane conditions later in the evening in the Florida Keys, while hurricane force gusts could still be a very likely possibility across the southern Florida mainland in the evening. A landfall over the southern Keys is a likely possibility if Isaac intensifies slowly, and a landfall over the northern Keys is a likely possibility if it intensifies quickly. To split the difference, I expect Isaac's first American vacation to be along the central/northern Keys.

After that point, the cyclone should begin to curve along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge where it should not only continue to intensify, but also begin a more poleward trend in motion. Currently I do not expect that the cyclone will directly affect areas westward of Alabama, and find that Isaac will probably be making landfall over the central or western Florida panhandle in about 3 days time. I fully believe that Isaac will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall along the northeastern Gulf coast.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Isaac valid as of 18:09UTC, or 2:09p.m EDT

I'm anticipating on writing another blog this evening, and keeping you guys updated on the evolution of conditions here in Miami-Dade as Isaac approaches. If the power goes out, I'll be blogging from my iPad...in the candlelight. ;)

MiamiHurricanes09

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Special Update: Tropical Storm Isaac (6:15p.m EDT)

Posted by: MiamiHurricanes09, 10:17 PM GMT en Agosto 24, 2012

I'm all about brief updates, so that's exactly what I'll be doing over the next few days just for Tropical Storm Isaac.Tropical Storm IsaacData from a Reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Tropical Storm Isaac is constituting towards an intensifying vertically stacked tropical cyclone, with the genesis of an eyewall currently occurring. Surface winds appear to be in the 55kt-60kt range with higher gusts, and an intensification trend should continue until I...

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Posted by: MiamiHurricanes09, 1:36 AM GMT en Agosto 21, 2012

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Special Tropical Update: September 27, 2011 (5:00p.m EDT)

Posted by: MiamiHurricanes09, 9:01 PM GMT en Septiembre 27, 2011

Tropical Depression OpheliaData from a Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the remnants of Ophelia this afternoon has found that the system has developed a surface circulation defined enough to meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Tropical Depression Ophelia has also become increasingly organized convectively this afternoon, with good upper-level outflow fanning out in all four quadrants. Additionally, upper-level winds are currently a favorab...

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Tropical Update: September 8th; 5:55p.m EDT

Posted by: MiamiHurricanes09, 9:47 PM GMT en Septiembre 08, 2011

Tropical Storm NateA reconnaissance aircraft investing Tropical Storm Nate this afternoon found that maximum sustained winds have risen to 70mph and that the pressure within the circulation continues to steadily decrease...down to 995mb as of the latest vortex data message. The appearance of the cyclone on satellite imagery still remains poor however, with a large mass of dry and stable air located to the northwest of the cyclone causing for weak convective activity...

Updated: 9:51 PM GMT en Septiembre 08, 2011

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