Two Southern Hemisphere Storms

By: MAweatherboy1 , 12:55 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012

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There's a lot going on in the world of weather right now. First, the tropics. Tropical Cyclone Irina is southwest of Madagascar with winds estimated at 45 knots by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Irina has brought significant death and destruction to Madagascar, a country fresh off a direct hit from powerful Cyclone Giovanna. Madagascar has had a very rough time of it the past several weeks, with well over 100 people confirmed dead between Giovanna and Irina. Irina is likely nearing the end of its existence. JTWC forecasts it to dissippate within a day or 2, and I agree with this as it currently has very little in the way of convection and has been like this for a couple days.

TC Irina

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone 16S has formed northwest of Australia. Its current intensity is estimated at 40 knots. It is currently fairly disorganized, with a large blowup of convection but little banding structure. It looks more like a large cluster of thunderstorms than a cyclone. It is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 70 knots, putting it at Category 1 intensity. I personally think it will struggle to make cyclone intensity as it is in an environment conducive for marginal strengthening. I think it will peak somewhere around 55-60 knots 2-3 days from now. Luckily, 16S is not a threat to land areas, as the GFS and Euro both take it to the west, farther from Australia. It is interesting to note that the GFS is much more optimistic than the Euro on strengthening 16S. I have leaned towards the Euro's solution with my prediction.
As far as upcoming tropical events, the Euro takes a weak storm near northwest Australia in about a week, while the GFS develops multiple systems in its latest run, though none of them are significant until the very end of the run when it has a large, powerful cyclone off the west Austrlian coast. This is certainly too far out to take seriously, however.

16S

Quick summary of other important weather news:
Winter Weather:
Virtually non-existent unless you live in Alaska, which has had a brutal winter. The CPC has been consistent in saying Spring is on the way for the rest of us:

Severe Storms:
Tomorrow has the best chance out of the next 3 days, with the SPC giving a slight (15%) risk area for northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Louisiana, and southwestern Arkanasas. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats

Earthquakes:
Nothing major; biggest in the past week was a 6.6 southeast of the Loyalty Islands; The San Francisco area was shaken up a little by a 4.0 quake Monday.
Other:
The Sun unleashed a major solar flare yesterday. While it should not make a direct hit on Earth, even just being grazed by a flare this powerful could cause power/communications issues, as well as set up a northern lights display for much of the country.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the rest of your week!

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6. MAweatherboy1
11:41 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


Not just a big blob...a Uniform CDO.:D

Link
You can see it rotating. Not blob :D

You're right; I couldn't believe it at first but it's true!
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7927
5. SPLbeater
2:14 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Thanks SPL... 16S makes me laugh; It's just a big blob :D


Not just a big blob...a Uniform CDO.:D

Link
You can see it rotating. Not blob :D
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
4. MAweatherboy1
2:04 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Not a half bad post MA.

Current floater of 16S

Thanks SPL... 16S makes me laugh; It's just a big blob :D
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7927
3. SPLbeater
1:42 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Not a half bad post MA.

Current floater of 16S
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
2. MAweatherboy1
1:17 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:
Nicely done

Thanks!
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7927
1. PedleyCA
1:03 AM GMT en Marzo 08, 2012
Nicely done
Member Since: Febrero 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.