Daniel Peaking; 5E Likely to Intensify
The action is definitely in the East Pacific this evening. The strongest storm out there right now is Hurricane Daniel. Daniel currently has winds of 90mph and a pressure of 977mb as of the National Hurricane Centers 5:00PM advisory today. Daniel remains in a relatively low shear environment. However it's path will soon bring it into much cooler waters as well as a significant area of dry air, as seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Water vapor image of Daniel.
As Figure 1 shows, dry air is already infiltrating the west side of the storm, so it won't be long before weakening begins. My thinking is similar to the NHC official forecast, calling for Daniel to be peaking right now and begin weakening soon. However due to the dry air and much cooler waters I anticipate Daniel to be dissipated in 4 days rather than 5 as the official forecast shows.
Figure 2: Official forecast track of Daniel.
As far as track for it's remaining lifespan, Daniel should continue in a generally westward direction until dissipation. This track brings it well south of the Hawaiian islands. However, even if it were to take aim at the islands, it would be too weak to provide any impacts.
TD 5E Likely to Become Hurricane Emilia
After being declared an invest only yesterday morning, Invest 97E organized quickly today to become the fifth tropical depression of what is proving to be a very active East Pacific hurricane season. TD 5E currently has maximum winds of 35mph and a pressure of 1005mb according to the National Hurricane Center. It is moving to the WNW at about 15mph. TD 5E is located well south of Mexico and is forecast to continue moving parallel or slightly away from the coast, as the official forecast track in Figure 3 shows.
Figure 3: Official forecast track of TD 5E.
Like Daniel, 5E will only be a threat to shipping interests as no land areas will be impacted. Daniel is in an environment that is very favorable for significant intensification. It is in an area with almost no wind shear, limited dry air, and extremely warm waters. The SHIPS intensity model is predicting an extremely high, 67% chance of rapid intensification. I think RI is almost a certainty for 5E as it has nothing stopping it from becoming a powerful hurricane. After about 5 days time 5E will begin to encounter cooler waters and drier air, which will begin to weaken it. The NHC is forecasting a peak intensity of 100mph. While even this is above the majority of model guidance, I think 5E will become a major hurricane thanks to rapid intensification and probably peak at about 120mph in about 4 days.
Figure 4: Tropical Depression 5E.
Quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic basin is very quiet right now with no invests nor any areas being watched for potential development. This should continue for at least another 2 weeks since the Atlantic will not have the MJO, which greatly aids in early season development. However, based on some signals I've seen from several of the recent GFS runs, I think development will be possible off the African coast in 15 days or so. The GFS has hinted at some vigorous waves off the African coast at that time, and while it is a long way out the GFS has been fairly good long range this season. Certainly no guarantees at this point, but it's something to keep an eye on. The three images below are from the three most recent GFS runs, showing low pressure in an area I think should be watched around 15 days time.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Reader Comments
Page: 1 — Blog Index
No problem, thanks for stopping by.
Viewing: 1 - 3
Page: 1 — Blog Index