LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Discussion - Thursday June 6, 2013

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 2:24 PM GMT en Junio 06, 2013

NHC upgraded 91L past the depression stage and right into TS Andrea yesterday based on aircraft recon and satellite data. Today Andrea has continued to intensify and is now a strong tropical storm with 60mph winds.

IR imagery shows convection well displaced east of the center but beginning to get wrapped into the center of Andrea.

Shear is still strong over the region and a large pool of dry air still exists over the entire gulf. The dry air is more of a factor now that there is a defined circulation to the storm. With no clear circulation, the dry air can not get entrained into the system but now the low pressure circulation can begin pull the dry air into the center of the storm. Between this dry air entrainment, shear, and Andrea's interaction with the Florida peninsula, further intensification isn't expected. It should be noted, however, that Andrea wasn't really expected to reach the intensity it is at now. So, as always, stay informed and aware if you live along the central and northern gulf coast of Florida.

Water vapor loops show the large pool of dry air over the Gulf and also show that dry air beginning to get wrapped into the circulation of Andrea on the east side of the center of circulation.

Folks along the east coast of the US should be watching Andrea as well. While it's not expected that tropical storm force winds will be much of a problem, we do expect a huge amount of precipitation to track up the east coast as this system gets pulled northeast by a trough approaching the east coast. Radar shows a lot of rain already falling in FL from this system and you can expect this to continue in Florida for the next 24 hours at least.

Radar loops show the copious amounts of rain falling over nearly the entire state of Florida as a result of TS Andrea.

Models are still in agreement on the track and, in fact, Andrea has done a good job of following the model guidance so far. The storm has already begun to pick up speed and is expected to accelerate northeastward into the eastern FL panhandle making landfall late this afternoon or this evening.

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Tropical Discussion - Monday June 3, 2013

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 6:39 PM GMT en Junio 03, 2013

91L is still a broad, disorganized system. Some thunderstorm activity has increased overnight though it should be noted that tropical systems over water tend to be more intense diurnally in the early morning hours normally.

Shear is still rather strong over the entire Gulf of Mexico though it is expected to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours. The entire Gulf not affected by this system is also very dry. However, since there really isn'...

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Updated: 1:21 PM GMT en Junio 05, 2013

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Welcome to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 4:16 PM GMT en Mayo 31, 2013

Hi folks! It's that time of year again when we start keeping our eyes on the tropics as we start the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As you know, the hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1st and runs through November 30th. This years' storm name list looks like this:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga<...

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Tropical Weather Discussion - August 27, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 5:18 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2012

Good afternoon folks! Tropical Storm Isaac is churning across the Gulf this afternoon headed for an eventual landfall somewhere on the LA coast. Despite what appeared to be conditions favorable for intensification, Isaac has stubbornly remained a tropical storm. We won't complain. I think the single biggest reason Isaac hasn't been able to reach hurricane status has been its shear size. A storm that covers as much ocean as Isaac takes time to consolidate all that...

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Tropical Weather Discussion - Sunday, August 26, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 5:07 PM GMT en Agosto 26, 2012

All eyes are on Isaac this afternoon as it makes its way through the Florida Keys as a tropical storm. Current Key West radar shows the storm circulation very well though it still appears a bit ragged in terms of deep convection and eyewall development. But Isaac is now entering the Gulf which is quite warm. A ridge is building in over the SE US. Water vapor and visible loops show the ridge is beginning to effectively stall out the trough over the southern plains th...

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