Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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Saw a frog run for cover this morning LOL
We saw em tightin up close to land last year, why not this one?
Is that sarcasm, Drak? I don't think so, just making sure.
Just my opinion, of course. Don't mean to sound like a know it all.
I wouldn't be surprised if 90L was able to produce Arthur especially with such a vigorous circulation despite the broadness.
Is that sarcasm, Drak? I don't think so, just making sure.
No I wasn't being sarcastic. If you disagree with something just say you do rather than implying I am being sarcastic, which I rarely am.
An invest is all I need so whether or not it develop...watching it from here on end.
1.75 inches of rain in the 24 hr period from yesterday morning. Not much here now though, just spitting and high overcast
anyway the tracker was suppose to be over atlantic water and make landfall again over Yucantan Peninsula
Catch you all later
I don't disagree with you. I was not implying that. I was just making sure. You never know with people. >_>
Actually Koritheman, the NHC disagrees with it moving back to the Pacific. It says in 72 hours 90L will be stationary in the BoC.
That's where the problem comes in. The NHC says something completely different than the models do. Either that, or I'm missing something, which is quite possible. LOL!
stormkat, lol 90L is under favorable shear with an anticyclone...get a clue why don't you. Whatever data your toilet is giving you, you just need to flush it back down.
Just ignore him. That's what I did.
anything tries to develop will be ripped apart by the shear and the ssp are fairly high in the area.....stormkat
Stormkat what are you looking at.....there is no more than 20kt shear in that area and dropping for now.
This is a poorly organized invest, with the exception of its center, which is even broad itself
Invest 90L; half invest, half nothing
LOL
there is nothing on its west and south sides, not enough organization
When it was declared Invest 90E in the Pacific, there was nothing in thenorthern semicircle.
Wudnt it be funny if 90L forms into TD 01 or Arthur...lol....just imagine who wud leave and stay.
Thats impossible! That circulation is too broad it extends from the Yucatan to the coast of Africa. And besides it has no banding whatsoever. That anticyclone will go under rapid disintegration the storm is gonna get cut up by shear and orographic lift from the non-existant mountains.
ROFLMAO
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