Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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690. Nice, Drak.
696. SJ, you building "Dreamliners" in your sleep? ;p
So anything interesting going on off the African coast? See an invest there in the next week or two?
( credit, Pots almanac heheh)
Thanks Drak. There is a lot of moisture associated with 90L. If remnants emerges back in the Pacific in a couple of days, what further development could we expect? Can the tropical wave at 77W impact development in the Pacific?
Too far out to tell what will happen. I will say though that a straight west path will take it into some mountains over Guatemala and Mexico which would disrupt the coc. I would rule out some orographic lift which drains out moisture from the clouds.
Better dig in deep everyone, this area of disturbed weather, associated with 90L, is forecast to persist for the next 5 days. After which a trough should come into play, strong enough? Who Knows. 5 days is a loooooooong way away. And to the Fla residents, until this area is able to move northward, our rainy season is on hold.
On all South Florida news stations, they stated that our rainy season began May 22nd.
700. Seriously, yeah, me too! ;P
Signs and portents.
WWWWWOOOOOOOOooooooooo
Its dry and hot here man. Not Tropical at all........
Really CCH? It hasn't rained here in over a week and isolated showers this afternoon we're moving NW from the coast? Rainy season? are you sure?
LOL...somewhat stupidly, the rainy season is not defined by rainfall patterns, but by dewpoints. Here was the NWS press release:
000
NOUS42 KMFL 301400
PNSMFL
FLZ067-068-071>075-168-172>174-310400-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
...RAINY SEASON UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA...
BASED ON RAINFALL WHICH BEGAN LAST WEEK, AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE FORSEEABLE
FUTURE, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS DETERMINED THAT
THE RAINY SEASON BEGAN OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MAY 22. THIS IS TWO
DAYS LATER THAN THE MEDIAN START DATE OF MAY 20.
MOST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY THE AREA FROM NAPLES TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN EASTERN
SECTIONS. THUS, THE RAINY SEASON WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE IN THESE
AREAS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST.
THE RAINY SEASON START DATE OF MAY 22 WAS DETERMINED BASED ON THE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHING AND EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR
THREE DAYS. THE DEW POINT IS A MEASURE OF HUMIDITY, AND THE ONSET OF
THE NEAR-DAILY CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PENINSULA
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH THE DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE
MARK. THIS YEAR`S ONSET OF THE RAINY SEASON WAS INTERRUPTED BY THE
COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LAST SUNDAY, WHICH
BROUGHT TWO TO THREE DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW DEW
POINTS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF TO HAVE COLD
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA IN LATE MAY AFTER THE RAINY SEASON
HAS BEGUN. IN 1984, 1985 AND 1995, LATE SEASON FRONTS PROVIDED
TEMPORARY COOL AND DRY SPELLS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE RAINY SEASON. THESE DRY PERIODS ONLY TEND TO LAST A FEW DAYS,
WITH A QUICK RETURN TO MUGGY AND WET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
Pottery, surely you'll get some with this!
AP - The National Hurricane Center said Alma was the first tropical storm in the available records to make landfall on Central America's Pacific coast. Such storms normally make landfall farther west, along Mexico's Pacific coast, and often hit Central America's Atlantic coast.
I'm getting too old man..........
90L is about to make landfall right now in Belize
No its still of-shore west of Roatan, Honduras. At 8:00PM EDT the circulation center was 50 miles east of Belize moving at 3mph.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1131 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
INC041-161-177-310345-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080531T0345Z/
WAYNE IN-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-
1131 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
UNION...NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...
RADAR INDICATED THAT THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CENTERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED EARLIER
WITH THIS STORM ON THE WAYNE AND HENRY COUNTY LINE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOUNTAIN CITY AND RICHMOND.
IN ADDITION...SPRING GROVE...WITTS STATION...BOSTON...RICHMOND
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...MIDDLEBORO...WHITEWATER AND BETHEL ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW!
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
LAT...LON 3996 8512 4001 8482 3996 8481 3992 8482
3988 8482 3971 8484 3968 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 261DEG 54KT 3984 8497
$$
...mid, third week June cyclogenesis area, I'm thinking. Dennis, '05.
There are rain showers in the vicinity of where it predicted a system, and further more; there is an actual invest where it showed development for so long.
Will be interesting to see how it performs the rest of the season!
Viewing: 701 - 751
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