Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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I got a thundershower at my house yesterday...here in the Florida panhandle.
Maybe that moisture in the NW Caribbean will eventually bring some rain to Florida.(fingers crossed).
"""It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it."""
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According to lower level winds at the CIMSS and PV analysis our tropical wave is emerging with a well-define mid-level rotation. I expect the NHC to confirm this feature later this afternoon or later 2night.
SST's are heating up nicely. GOM is almost completely done heating up. Just a couple small patches of below 26C water but other than that its ready for action.
morning IKE.. u thunk we'll get any rain up here in panhandle from all that moisture in carribean?
Maybe eventually...I got rain yesterday. Aren't you in the panhandle? Chipley???
Alma inició como una baja presión estacionaria, aunque los modelos numéricos nos indicaban montos altos de lluvias, no se vislumbraba que se fortaleciera tanto sobre nuestra latitud. Según nuestros registros hace 121 años que no se formaba una TD del pacífico en CR.
Saludos a todos.
I must have accidently skip right through that portion of his blog IKE, while I was skiming through it! My fault bro!
It's OK....didn't know if you had read it.
This is what Jeff said about the NW Carib:
s 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it.
So I guess Crestview and Defuniak have started their summer afternoon thunderstrom pattern! Not a drop or hint of rain along the coast yesterday IKE, pretty warm too!
11. IKE 10:11 AM CDT on May 30, 2008
So I guess Crestview and Defuniak have started their summer afternoon thunderstrom pattern! Not a drop or hint of rain along the coast yesterday IKE, pretty warm too!
Sea breeze front came through about 5 pm and ignited some thundershowers.
btw IKE I noticed IKE is one of the storm names for this year...Im predicting that one will be the worst LOL j/k
Cat 5 and hit the Florida panhandle...I'll run from it!
456 how do you determine the axis of a tropical wave and what imagery do you use to do so?
I use numerous tools to track tropical waves ranging from QuikSCAT, ASCAT, WindSAT, surface obs, upper air observations, numerical models such as the GFS, products at the CIMSS, hovmoeller diagrams, TPW, and satellite imagery.
This is my definition of a tropical wave.
A snyoptic scale disturbance forming wihtin the instability of the African Easterly Jet and assoicated with the westward propagation of convective signiture with a mean vorticity center and cyclonic wind shifts near the axis in the mid-lower levels. There are several characteristics of these waves one being that convection and convergence ocuurs ahead of the axis.
Africa Numerical Models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_africa.shtml
Satellite Imagery
456, what's the official current movement of Alma's remnants according to the NHC?
Last moevement was NNW
2008
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