Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection
A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.
"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."
Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.
Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:
Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind
Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!
Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."
Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.
Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."
Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?
Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"
Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."
Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")
Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"
What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."
April Fools!
Meff Jasters
References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083
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February 26, 2008
TV weatherman Dick Fletcher dies
Dick Fletcher, the dean of Tampa Bay TV weather forecasters, has died. He never recovered from a massive stroke he suffered last week.
Fletcher, 65, was discovered by his wife Cindy at their home last Monday afternoon. Citing confidentiality laws and concerns for the family, officials at the CBS affiliate declined to release many details, saying doctors would know more in a few days. The station received hundreds of calls from well-wishers.
WTSP is expected to officially announce Fletcher's death during its news broadcasts soon.
Fletcher joined the station in March 1980, once offering a "3-degree-guarantee," giving a Ch. 10 mug or T-shirt to a viewer if his forecasts were off more by than 3 degrees.
The station plans a special tribute to Fletcher at 10 a.m.
- Times staff writer
More on Dick Fletcher!
"I can't count the storms that Dick has been on the air for endless hours, but it sometimes would cut into his life," wrote Deeson in a tribute to Fletcher. "I'm not sure what storm it was, but Cindy had planned a birthday party. We were all at Cindy and Dick's house as he kept checking the computer and said he had to leave his own party, because the storm was heading our way. Dick was the first to go and slowly we all ended up leaving the party and reassembling at the station for another weekend of storm duty."
WTSP anchor Reginald Roundtree remembered how Fletcher kept tracking Hurricane Charley on air in 2004, even as the approaching storm forced the station to evacuate its St. Petersburg studio and broadcast from a county-owned public access studio in Clearwater. "He just had one radar loop, and explained (the storm) like he had a whole symphony of equipment behind him," said Roundtree. "I remember him telling me, 'Every time I think about leaving (during storm coverage), I think about that older couple in Pinellas Park who is hanging on my every word. And I stay.'"
A Severe Thunderstorm watch has just been issued for portions of Oklahoma and North Texas; including Oklahoma City and Abilene.
Watch probabilities:
WT 0153
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 80%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%
Looks like Colorado State University is expecting an above average season. Bill Gray explains;
La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.
"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.
Look at all those cool anomalies in the Carribbean/Gulf/Tatl.
That is a result of the winter we had. It is April and the Northeast Caribbean is still experiencing chilly breezes. This is mainly due to the centralised position of the subtropical ridge. Advecting cool air further west and south along with increase surface divergence from increase wind velocities. There is another side. This centralised ridge has allowed the Canary current (which is a cold current) and upwelling along West Africa to substantially weaken and allowing a more southerly flow and downwelling resulting in above normal anomalies there. The centralised ridge has also resulted in a more southerly flow into the Gulf and along the East Coast.
If this pattern continues into the Hurricane Season, which is unlikely becuz SSTs will eventually warm, then there is increase risk along the US East Coast and Gulf Coast and increase cyclogensis and maintainence near West Africa. If the high remains in that position (Negative NAO) then storms will be steered on pattern towards a little north of the mean west motion, that is, turning more northward than storms like Dean and Felix for example, being that, all other factors remain average,
I have a weather question for everyone:
Here in corpus, it's usually windy... but the last couple of weeks it's been EXTREMELY windy.. to the point where we get 40-50 mph gusts and i can't even walk in the University without the buildings becoming wind tunnels and knocking me over.
What causes the wind to pick up like this? Is it something to do with different types of air mass... or it is somewhat associated with low and high pressure?
I was wondering this as i was walking out of class today... almost behind blown over from the wind. It's even worse on the waterfront, which is about 100 feet from the Univ.
Anyone who has answers to this question, thank you so much!
*Just imagine the northeast trades versus the southeast trades/monsoon southwesterlies. Stronger northeasterlies peristing further towards the south relative to the southeast trades or monsoon southwesterlies. That can result in an ITCZ axis whose maximum convergence is more south than normal. The actually heat trough (area of maximum warming) is determine by the position of the overhead sun, which is further north on June 21 but has a 1-2 month lag, so warming may not reach max until September.
1926 would be a good analog for 08 what you think 456?storm tracks looks about right.Other patterns iam not so sure.
Excellent year, that is all other steering factors being equal. It could be a year like 2004 in terms of track. Would you agree?
thanks
1926 would be a good analog for 08 what you think 456?storm tracks looks about right.Other patterns iam not so sure.
Hopefully not; I think that was the year of the Labor Day Hurricane in the FL Keys which killed hundreds of rail workers as they were working on the Overseas Highway.......
actually the labor day cane wasn't until 1935
Sorry...........You are correct (1935), but, 1926 is sticking out in my mind for some reason......
The 1926 Miami Hurricane (or Great Miami Hurricane or the Big Blow) was an intense hurricane that devastated Miami, Florida in September of 1926. The storm also caused significant damage in the Florida Panhandle, the U.S. state of Alabama, and the Bahamas. The storm's enormous regional economic impact helped end the Florida land boom of the 1920s and pushed the region on an early start into the Great Depression.
I knew that was a bad year............
That would be if the Bermuda/Azores high maintains its current position and strength, right? I don't really remember the positions of the high pressure systems during 2004 (that's the year before I began to seriously track tropical systems like I currently do) but based on the tracks it looks like a high was in place similar to the current one; which would steer storms westward then curve northward once into the GOM or near Florida...correct me if im wrong please.
Link 1 - NCEP Model Page it's the first one down.
Link 2 - NAM maps from Wxmaps.org
1. You can actually draw out an average of the storm tracks that made it to land. And it clearly shows these storms were steered by a centralised atlantic ridge, and given the duration of these storms, the ridge was of moderate intensity (compared to supersonic Dean)
2. Also notice the the concentration of stray storms between 50W and 30W. I remembered Karl quickly became fish due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough. A weaker ridge is easier to break down, but a weak ridge (as in Negative NAO) also indicate a weaker Icelandic Low and thus weaker mid-latitude activity and recurvatures. This is relfected where most storms made it to land as oppose to the number of stray storms, and where most storms recurved along the East Coast.
426. TerraNova 4:20 PM AST on April 03, 2008
It could be a year like 2004 in terms of track. Would you agree?
That would be if the Bermuda/Azores high maintains its current position and strength, right? I don't really remember the positions of the high pressure systems during 2004 (that's the year before I began to seriously track tropical systems like I currently do) but based on the tracks it looks like a high was in place similar to the current one; which would steer storms westward then curve northward once into the GOM or near Florida...correct me if im wrong please.
More or less, ur correct.
You're welcome; here's the correct second link BTW:
Link 2
weather 456 and terri? Whats your current thinking for this upcoming season in terms of activity and possible US landfall probabilities??
Easter Weekend Numbers (normal to slightly above normal) based ENSO, African Rainfall, the NAO, QBO and continuation of above normal activity. Since then, SSTs continue increase in the far west and east, this should incorporated into the May 15 forecast along with SLP and possible development weak warm anomalies associated with the ENSO in the latter part of the season.
In terms of track as of now, if the high remains at that position and intensity, one can expect a year similar to 2004, 1998, 1996 in terms of track.
is it just me or is rain and hail in VA getting milder but more often
Nothing can really be said for sure as we still have two whole months left; and a lot can change in the basin in two months. Therefore it's too early to be putting out probabilities (like accuweather is doing, I believe).
In terms of storm strength; StormW posted a comment on a previous entry suggesting that MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) would experience a large positive/upward trend through a majority of the season, which would make the atmosphere more favorable for towering convective activity...again, it's still a bit early to be making these kinds of long range predictions.
As W456 said a while back, don't let the current cool anomalies in the basin fool you, as it appears that sea surface temperatures are still cold from winter. They'll warm up soon (no doubt about that in my opinion).
What is worrying me this far out are the unusually high temperatures off the coast of West Africa. Speculation: assuming that these anomalies persist into June/July/as far as August, then there is the possibility of a lot of Cape Verde storms. Of course the track depends a lot on the eventual positions and intensities of the Bermuda and Azores high pressure systems; which as i have seen, can be very tricky to predict. The strength of the ridge will determine which course these systems will take (read post 435).
In terms of the number of systems, that's very very tricky to predict. Personally (and again this is just mostly speculation) I'm thinking 14-17 named storms, around that of a last year. AKA a normal season in terms of activity, however, remember that it only takes one storm to make a season notorious.
The last two years have had a lot of shear to contend with; but as the cold fronts and low pressure systems exiting the east coast of the US become less vigorous we can expect shear to gradually drop during the next two months.
The west caribbean is usually the first area to become conductive for development, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm (speculation) develop there or in the GOM and move off to the northeast.
Keep in mind that a lot of this is speculative and depends on many variables.
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