Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection
A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.
"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."
Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.
Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:
Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind
Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!
Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."
Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.
Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."
Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?
Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"
Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."
Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")
Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"
What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."
April Fools!
Meff Jasters
References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083
Reader Comments
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Not for undergrads, only graduate level and is on Virginia Key, not in Coral Gables. (I got offered a job there once upon a time)
For an undergrad program, you will be hard pressed to specialize in much of anything, but it can be done. I chose to take extra electives such as atmospheric chem, numerical modeling, air pollution meteorology, and tropical meteorology. None of them were required for a NWS or TV job, so they were not required for the undergrad degree at A&M. I think some of them are required now, though. I did talk to students at an internship I went on and found out that some of these specialised courses were simply not available to undergrads at many schools, only for grad students.
Texas A&M has a good all around program, but not much of a TC guru on staff last I heard.
Of course, you could go to Colorado State and take some extra electives under one of Bill Gray's underlings.
Believe it or not, U South Alabama in Mobile has an up and coming program with more than a couple of TC researchers. I know for a fact that they have a new supercomputer going in there of 144 processors to run H-WRF very soon. (As in hardware delivery should be any week now...I am involved in the installation of the Infiniband cluster software and the installation of compilers, libraries, and ultimately, the models themselves, along with testing all of the above.) They also have researchers presenting findings at conferences alongside such notables at Chris Landsea, Mark Powell, Bill Gray, Greg Holland, and Kerry Emmanuel. I have been a bit of a participant in that and been involved and coauthored for the conference presentations.
You cannot go wrong with a degree from UWisconsin in this field. UWashington is up there too, but both of them are difficult to get into.
FSU was already mentioned and does have a little more of a TC component than Texas A&M.
Mississippi State has a growing TC component. I know a couple of TC researchers heavily involved in Journal Publications, conference presentations, and the like at MSU. I have been involved with their work and presentations as well.
U Alabama - Huntsville also has an excellent program (almost went there rather than A&M). I expect they have some TC courses, but cannot be sure.
Best of luck. The 2 things I can impart on a potential student is to not shirk away from taking any course, required or not, if it will give you something over other applicants AND do apply for and go on an internship sponsored by NOAA, NASA, Department of Energy after your junior year, especially one that will give you some good experience (resume material) and contacts in multiple agencies. Field campaigns are particularly good for this.
Thank you very much for the information, I really appreciate you taking the time to write all of this =] So if I read what you were saying correctly, I won't really have to worry about tropical meteorology specifically until I'm in grad school? Also about the internships, do you know the age requirements on them and where I could apply for any?
Thanks again.
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....
Satellite animations and surface observations continue to show a vigorous cold front pushing across the Gulf of Mexico from the Bay of Campeche near 21N/93W through 25N/86W and across the Southeast United States. Deep convection lies within 200 nmi of the front and the pre frontal squall line north of 24N, with Doppler radar over the Southeastern United States showing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northeast Gulf now spreading across the Florida Peninsula and Southeastern United States. At the surface, pronounce return flow dominates the region ahead of the front, and consequently, acting as inflow to help fuel these intense squalls. Northerly winds behind the front due to the associated high pressure system over the South-Central United States. Mainly fair weather lies here and over the Western Gulf except for some lingering moisture and clouds.
A well define surface anticyclone continues to persist across the Western Atlantic centered on a 1030 mb high at 30N/50W. This ridge is supporting large-scale anticyclonic flow as seen on visible imagery, and fair to partly cloudy skies
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....
The weather across the Caribbean remains in the control of a strong Atlantic anticyclone which is supporting ridging and fair weather across much of the basin. The ridge is also providing light-moderate tradewind flow with typical advection of patches of tradewind moisture causing periods of isolated showers. The more pronounce showers is occurring over the Windward Passage and the surrounding landmasses of Southeast Cuba and Jamaica where a dying upper trough is aiding surface speed convergence and afternoon thunderstorms. Mariners should expect seas of 9-10 ft over a large area of the Eastern Caribbean, diminishing to 6-7 ft over the Western Caribbean. This pattern should persist into Sunday as the Atlantic high pressure remains in place north of our region.
by W456
Most of the energy with the line will break up as it makes it into south florida.This evening looks ok.
State wide Radar loop.
Admittedly, picking a specialised subset of the meteorology field for a career is near impossible with only a BS and no you wouldn't need to focus on tropical until grad school.
Internships: They all have thier own requirements, but most will stipulate you being a current student in the field. As finding them, some literature will be available in a school's dept office, but I found many more by simple searching the net.
Thanks once more.
Great radar software you have, there! Can I have the link to that site? TIA
Weather456-Is it windy yearround where you live?
No...highly variable..it depends on the pressure gradient south of the ridge, and that is highly variable. Our winds are also modified by synoptic scale disturbances like upper lows, tropical waves and hurricanes. However, the trades have been anomalously strong this winter and that is due to the more powerful lows and a more westward and strong ridge.
Hi H23
Great radar software you have, there! Can I have the link to that site? TIA
Scroll to the bottom of my front page on my website were there is a banner were you can click on.Right next to it ive included a link to NWS radio for miami dade.
It is not used by the NOAA/NHC period MLC.
But the Private,and some State sectors use it for impact potential .
To many in the upper echelons of the NOAA and NHC group have strong resistance to tamper with the SSS.
But the trend is leaning more toward revision, every season now.
Evening everybody.
I said it recently, but will do so again; we need an Enhanced Saffir-Simpson Scale (rather like what was done for tornados) which takes multiple factors into account rather than trying to build a new one from scratch. This would provide the twin advantages of ease of transition from old to new and greater clarity / specificity of information, especially at landfall.
I know Katrina was downgraded from cat 4 after the fact.
KATRINA PART 2 PHOTO INDEX COVERAGE AREAS Link
Landfall Local Radar Loop Link
Yes, we have had a relatively wet Dry-Season so far ( dryseason is Jan - June ). But the rain has been welcomed, because our dry season can get very dry and hot.
No, I have never experienced a Hurricane here, and indeed we get very few.Recently hurricane Ivan passed close enough to give us winds of enough strength to blow off some roofs. But the danger we face from flood in the mountains is a bigger concern, and several houses get damaged or destroyed every year from heavy rain.
Feeder bands from storms that pass north of us are often heavy rain makers.
There a Naval Air Station NAS Belle Chase,Lots small Fishing Communities ,and Plenty of Citrus Growers,..ANd A Boatload of Oil Industry
Close Up animated Gif of the Eyewall Link
LSU Earth Scan Page for more imagery Link
A long way from Help,trouble can ruin yer day too.Blowout on the drill Pipe exchange. Link
Another one,Tower view, Link
I have been busy with the sunflowers =D
So what do you think of our first blob of 08 in the eastern Atlantic? =P
Looks like blob season has started early =P
and if blobs like this one and the other about to get off Africa continue to develop it could mean a active Cape Verde season which would be bad news for me since most of the hurricanes that come here are from there =(
well I am hoping for a major cool down of the Africa coast =P
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