Spring flooding hits Midwest; Southeast drought eases

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:04 PM GMT en Marzo 20, 2008

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This year's annual spring flooding season is upon us, and it's been a worse flood year than usual across much of the Midwestern U.S. At least 13 people have been killed due to the flooding this week, with another three persons missing. A slow moving storm system brought rains in excess of ten inches to the region (Figure 1). These rains, combined with melting from unusually heavy snows this winter, have led to the floods.


Figure 1. Heavy rains exceeding 10 inches have fallen in some portions of the Midwest over the past week. Image credit: NOAA.

According to NOAA, 224 cities are experiencing flooding today, with major flooding reported in 13 cities in Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Illinois. As snow continues to melt and runoff from the recent rains continues to increase the flooding, an additional 13 cities are expected to observe major flooding in the next 48 hours. Fortunately, no heavy rain is expected in the next three days, so a long duration flooding event is not likely.


Figure 2. The NOAA flood outlook calls for significant river flooding across much of the Midwest through Monday. Image credit: NOAA.

Flooding outlook for this Spring
According to NOAA, Above-normal flood potential is expected this Spring in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho. Snow depths up to a foot above usual in upstate New York and much of New England could cause flooding in the Connecticut River Valley; locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in the snow pack, leading to a higher than normal flood potential there; and Wisconsin and northern Illinois have had heavy snows this winter that could cause continued flooding concerns this Spring.

Southeast drought continues to improve
On the plus side, the area of the Southeast U.S. covered by the severest form of drought--exceptional drought--has shrunk to a small spot over southern Tennessee/northern Alabama, and Georgia is free of exceptional drought for the first time since July. The drought is expected to continue to improve between now and June over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

Batesville's west side is flooded. (pb4ugo)
Hundreds of residents ere evacuated earlier today. As the water continues to rise, hundreds more may have to leave their homes.
Batesville's west side is flooded.
Flooding Strikes NE Arkansas & SE Missouri (ArkaTechHog77)
Severe flooding hits the area. My stepfather took a friend up and snapped these shots. Photos taken around HWY 53 area around Qulin and Poplar Bluff. Others taken in Clay County, Arkansas.
Flooding Strikes NE Arkansas & SE Missouri
Kroger 3 (Hawg8)
Local flooding
Kroger 3

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464. Smyrick145
9:54 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
I wonder if we will ever hear from StormKat again???
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
463. StormHype
9:45 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
The system, called America's Emergency Network, is being built to give the media, local residents and others direct access to information released by state and local emergency operations centers.


Inotherwords, Mayfield-Norcross basically found a way to just fix a broken govt run system. We pay taxes to the govt to provide this very thing, but they fail, so private entreprenuers come in and fix it, and capitalize off it.
Mayfield-Norcross: winners.
FEMA, NWS, NHC: losers (but collecting a govt paycheck and pension so don't care.)
Member Since: Mayo 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1208
462. ajcamsmom2
9:38 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
459. leftovers 3:35 PM CDT on March 25, 2008
Nuetral yr means what? Fearful this yr for some reason


I am always fearful since Katrina/Rita
Member Since: Marzo 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
461. sullivanweather
9:14 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
MODIS rapid response satellite pic of partial Wilkins ice shelf collapse.



This is the 4km resolution image showing where the collapse is.

Here's the 250m resolution image **Very large file 3.92MB
Member Since: Marzo 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
458. Patrap
8:10 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
New Mississippi delta would limit hurricane damage

* 13:20 18 February 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
* Phil McKenna
Story: Link

Diverting parts of the Mississippi would create up to 1000 square kilometres of new wetlands between New Orleans, Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico, forming a vital storm surge buffer against hurricanes, researchers say. The formation of new delta lands could also help stem ongoing coastal erosion without disrupting important shipping traffic.

"The scientific and engineering barriers are easily overcome," says Gary Parker, a geologist and engineer at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign, who developed the plan with colleagues. "The big issue is political will".

Details of the scheme were unveiled on Sunday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston, US.





Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
457. Patrap
7:34 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Someone check da thermostat please..


Antarctic ice shelf 'hanging by a thread'

Movie Camera

* 18:08 25 March 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
* Catherine Brahi Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
456. TerraNova
7:28 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Antarctica - A chunk of ice nearly seven times the size of Manhattan Island has collapsed into the ocean. Article from CNN:

Link
Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
455. weatherboykris
6:37 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Strong La Nina years tend to have less hurricanes than moderate La Nina years. It appears that this La Nina will be over by hurricane season anyway, and we will be in neutral conditions.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
454. AWeatherLover
6:32 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Anyone have any information on strength of la niña and cyclogenesis? I have only seen research on number of hurricanes that formed in string la niña years versus strong el niño years, but never strong la niña years versus moderate la niña years and that would be very interesting to me. I know you've been busy Adrian but whenever you get a chance that would be great. Or anyone else who could help with this.
Member Since: Noviembre 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
453. weatherbro
5:47 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
if that sleeping giant Dr M mentioned took advantage of it's opportunity, it would of easily be another category 5!
Member Since: Mayo 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1362
452. BahaHurican
5:25 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Good point, Kris. I think sometimes people forget that "active" is defined by number of storms that actually form, not by number of landfalls. I'm thinking about the seasons where we've had 15 or 16 storms, many of them majors, but only one or two landfalls in the US. 2003 was a case in point, with 16 named storms but only two hurricanes striking the US, neither as a major. Even in the whole basin there were only 4 hurricane landfalls.
Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
451. weathermanwannabe
5:21 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
448. GainesvilleGator 12:27 PM EDT on March 25, 2008
Not only have the early hurricane forcasts been a bust but the ones on June 1st as well. The last two hurricane seasons were supposed to be really, really bad and all we got is drizzle & fizzle.


Need to be careful about that as it may have been "drizzle & fizzle" for the CONUS but a lot of lives were lost in the Carribean and the Yucatan when Dean plowed accross.....The Season affects the entire Tropics and not just the U.S.........
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
449. weatherboykris
4:30 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Actually Gainesville Gator, last year's forecasts were very accurate. "Active season"
does not necessarily mean active where you are, it means active overall. Even in a very active season, Gainesville is very unlikely to get hit.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
448. GainesvilleGator
4:27 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Not only have the early hurricane forcasts been a bust but the ones on June 1st as well. The last two hurricane seasons were supposed to be really, really bad and all we got is drizzle & fizzle. If the major forecasting agencies keep calling for an active season, they are bound to be right eventually. Just think of a broken clock being right twice a day.
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 745
447. NEwxguy
3:23 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
445. atmoaggie 3:03 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
432. NEwxguy 12:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
desperately seeking spring here in the northeast

Well, the trees are spewing pollen here in SE LA, but had to scrape the frost off the car windows this morning. That isn't very common for the last week of March.

You might not like our lagging spring, but I find it much more fun than sweating.

I understand for all of you in the south,your not looking forward to the heat,since it lasts so long,but here in the northeast its been a long winter,and would look forward to a little sweat.
Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
446. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
The cold Made my left rear Tire that had a slowww leak, go down all the way atmo..LOL

Im off to plug dat sucka.

Then I'm gonna pre-flight all my window A/C units too. Jazz Fest will bring the Heat.
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
445. atmoaggie
3:03 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
432. NEwxguy 12:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2008
desperately seeking spring here in the northeast


Well, the trees are spewing pollen here in SE LA, but had to scrape the frost off the car windows this morning. That isn't very common for the last week of March.

You might not like our lagging spring, but I find it much more fun than sweating.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
444. Patrap
2:48 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
3 spacecraft in One pass, minutes apart tonight.

Heavens-Above Home Page.Link
These times will work for Houston,approx too.

New Orleans ATV pass, groundtrack and times Link

Shuttle Pass 5 minutes later,same plane. Link

ISS pass Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
442. weathermanwannabe
2:04 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
The "mean" number of named storms in any given year, for the tropical atlantic season, is around 10 per year (with around 6 developing into hurricanes) so when we look at the long term predictions (and especially the earlier ones as we will soon see when Colorado/Gray release their first one in April), they usually "guestimate" between around 11 and upwards........It all depends on what actually happens (with all of the variables once the season actually starts)when their forcasts are adjusted later in the season but the numbers go up or down on the back end....Either way (with Andrew being a classic example), it only takes one major hurricane to hit a poopulated area to make the books in terms of property damage and/or loss of life............Eternal vigilence and preparation every year is the best we can hope for in this business.....
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
441. MisterPerfect
1:59 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Norcross-Mayfield warning system sold

Posted on Tue, Mar. 25, 2008
By MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

An emergency warning system being developed by South Florida's two most prominent hurricane forecasters -- former hurricane center director Max Mayfield and broadcaster Bryan Norcross -- has been acquired by a small, publicly traded company.

The system, called America's Emergency Network, is being built to give the media, local residents and others direct access to information released by state and local emergency operations centers.

Norcross, who also serves as WFOR-CBS 4's hurricane specialist, announced Tuesday that AEN had been acquired by Brampton Crest International, a Miami Beach company that specializes in making loans to real estate firms and other entities.

He and Mayfield, who retired last year from the hurricane center and now works for WPLG-ABC 10 as a hurricane expert, have been developing AEN for about a year.

They say it will serve as an Internet- and satellite-based clearinghouse for preparedness and post-disaster advisories issued by government emergency managers to South Floridians and residents of other areas.

Those messages include prestorm tips and evacuation orders, post-storm updates about rescue operations and relief distribution sites, and crucial information about other emergencies.

''This deal gives us an advantage because there is so much interest in the emergency community,'' Norcross said. ``After talking to a lot of people in the financial world, we thought that moving into the public [corporate] arena was the way to go.''

The arrangement calls for Brampton to issue 100 million common shares and follows a $1 million private placement of shares that will be used to finance AEN, according to a company statement.

Brampton will be renamed The AEN Group. Norcross has been appointed as its president and chief executive officer and Mayfield is now senior executive vice president of government relations.


Member Since: Noviembre 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
439. NEwxguy
1:42 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Hey,Storm,
Speculation is half the fun of tropical season,but in the end when tropical season arrives usually all the long range forecasts are thrown out the window,because all the ingredients didn't come together the way it was thought.
Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
438. PensacolaDoug
1:32 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Blue Angels just took off. Good Morn all. Tropical season sson to be on us!
Member Since: Julio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
436. NEwxguy
1:14 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Its going to be interesting to see how that pans out Storm,would make for any interesting tropical season,but I don't have a lot of faith in long range forecasts.
Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
435. weathermanwannabe
1:13 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Now we watch closely as the weakening of the La Nina and the fact it is getting to be warm may be able to get us to start timing 40 day pulses which would put our part of the world in a favorable upward motion pattern for tropical systems late June, early Aug, mid Sep, late Oct. If we have a neutralish ENSO next winter, one can see a nasty December.

Sorry I don't buy it (unless it actually happens)....Know a lot of people respect Bastardi but he predicted a dire season for the Gulf last year and it never materialized....I don't give credence anymore to these extremely long term forcasts and predictions and take a "wait and see" attitude as conditions develop and/or change once we get into the season..................
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
433. weathermanwannabe
12:45 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Good Morning Folks......Temps dropped just "above" freezing last night in North Florida but all of the flowers in my yard and in the neghborhood (Beautiful Azalias/Dogwoods/Wysterias) appear to have survived this late March shot.....Hate it when the temps actually drop below freezing this time of year and kill off the budding flowers.......
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
432. NEwxguy
12:38 PM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
desperately seeking spring here in the northeast
Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
431. Cavin Rawlins
11:29 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Good Morning

Pattern Evolution of Pancho

Curve band pattern: 1.05 cloud band arc seen on visible imagery.

Curve Band Pattern DT 3.7
MET 3.5

CI - 3.7/57 kts/983 mb

The data T-no (DT) of the curve band pattern was used rather than the model expected T-no (MET)because MOSIACS Visible imagery (below) and MIMIC animation from the CIMSS showed increase pattern evolution.



Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
430. KoritheMan
3:42 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Hello everyone i dont know if anyone remembers me i'm glad to be back this year...the spring has been quite violent with a dangerous tornado season....i was wondering if some think there could be a link between a hyperactive tornado season and the oncoming hurricane season

I remember you. And I'm not sure about there being correlation between an active hurricane season and a hyperactive tornado season.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
428. HIEXPRESS
2:08 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
411. hurricane23
...If anything it should be used as sign that tropical season will be here before you know it.

Yes, and if these current SST anomalies hold:Link
maybe they override the typical LaNina (if it persists) late start to the season. (exception 1999 Arlene)
Member Since: Octubre 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
427. Patrap
1:05 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
ATV and ISS pass over the Se in a few.

ATV Link

ISS Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
426. Inyo
12:34 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
A huge number of the fires and mudslides in California that you see on the news are concentrated in the same areas (such as malibu) and yes, maybe those areas should not be rebuilt. You can't really compare this with Katrina, where a whole city of relatively poor people lost their homes. Some of the San Diego fires got beyond the mansions on the edge of the mountains, but that was the exception.

And yeah, pretty much all mudslides are in Malibu or La Conchita or somewhere like that. Nothing like Katrina at all.
Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
425. Patrap
12:32 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
"The Saints Are Coming" Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
424. cnlmustard
12:28 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Has Dennis Hastert come out yet and declare that these flooded homes and buildings not be rebuilt, like he stated about my city of New Orleans? Or how about those wildfires or mudslides in California, man they're always having that, hey! - shouldn't rebuild!
423. GeoffreyWPB
12:18 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Great Night!
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
422. TerraNova
12:11 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
GFS (18z run) now shows not one but TWO tropical cyclones forming out in the extreme long range. The first being the Cape Verde system of course; the second being an apparent cyclone hovering off the coast of Brazil.

Note that none of this should be taken seriously. Storms predicted in the 300 hour timeframe or after have a very very low chance of occurence; especially since we still have at least two months left until the possiblity of tropical cyclones begins to increase.

Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
421. Patrap
12:09 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Thanx.
100Plus degree spread on those two.



Brrrrrrr!
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
420. GeoffreyWPB
12:08 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Thank you Pat...very nice...Always enjoy your posts..
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
419. Patrap
12:04 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Vostok,Antarctica Link

W. Palm Beach Link
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
418. GeoffreyWPB
12:02 AM GMT en Marzo 25, 2008
Nice, Cool & Breezey here in West Palm. For those complaining how "cold" it is....Please keep your posts shut as we go thru the 90's during July thru August...I for one enjoy lower electric bills
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
417. TerraNova
10:30 PM GMT en Marzo 24, 2008
Morning everyone. I see the GFS still is holding on to its development of a Cape Verde storm (not that that means anything). The GFS has been showing this for quite a while now (run to run consistency) but still this is (as H23 said) more than 300 hours out and therefore probably not going to happen.

Ya the CMC was doing the same thing with the gulf low a few days ago. Chances are that's not the last we've seen of the CMC's odd tendency to overdevelop systems.

Michael STL - the cyclonephase diagrams only go out 144 hours from the initiation time (it took me a while to figure that out myself lol). Also; I think H23 was reffering to the cyclone that CMC was forming in the gulf last week.
Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
415. TEXASYANKEE43
9:53 PM GMT en Marzo 24, 2008
414. hurricane23 8:46 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
Its an incredible experience! I was there during charley back in 04.


I'll bet it is a real busy place, every second. (24/7) I'd love to see it in action!
414. hurricane23
8:46 PM GMT en Marzo 24, 2008
413. TEXASYANKEE43 4:42 PM EDT on March 24, 2008
411. hurricane23 8:07 PM GMT on March 24, 2008
Almost forgot for those that have never visited the NHC here is your chance to see what it looks like inside.



I'd like to see it in full operation during an actual huricane.

Its an incredible experience! I was there during charley back in 04.
Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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