Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The tropics today
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005 +0
Just a quick update on the tropics this morning, and I hope to post more on Katrina later today.

The most significant threat in the tropics is the potential on Sunday or Monday for a tropical depression to develop in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This is the same location that Katrina developed. This development would occur at the tail end of a cold front that is expected to push off of the East Coast. The latest GFS model run is showing two possible areas of formation, one near Bermuda, and one near the east coast of Florida. If a depression does form near the east coast of Florida, the likely track would be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. If formation occurs closer to Bermuda, the likely track would be northeastward away from land. I think it is unlikey that two systems would form in the this region; the energy for storm formation will probably concentrate in one area and create one storm. Let's hope that if this occurs, the formation region will be closer to Bermuda and the storm will head out to sea.


Figure 1. GFS forecast for 2am Monday, showing two possible locations a tropical depression may form.

Tropical Depression Lee is nothing to worry about, it is too far north to have a chance at affecting land, and is suffering from shear that will keep it weak or potentially dissipate it over the next few days. The well-organized wave 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is looking better organized today. The shear over it is relaxing, the dry air on its west side has decreased some, and deep convection is starting to build on the north side. This system will probably become Tropical Depression 14 later today, but its relatively northerly location and northwesterly motion make this system no threat to land. This system will probably recurve out to sea. The most significant threat in the tropicas may be from the tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This system is far enough south, near latitude 9N, that it will not get recurved out to sea by the mid-Atlantic trough. The tropical wave is currently in a region of strong enough shear that development will not occur, but this shear is expected to relax by Saturday as the wave continues westward over the open Atlantic. As was the case with yesterday's model runs, the GFS forecasts that this wave will become a major hurricane and a potentially threaten the Leeward Islands a week from now.
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251. cgableshurrycanegal 7:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
AP, we went through this in ANDREW to a lesser degree, FEMA was SUPOPOSED to haver learned. They KNEW Katrina was a threat when it blew the s*** out of us here in So. FL a week ago today. NO EXCUSES!!! They should have started evac of NO on SAT not SUN and they should have had relief supplies in place much closer and much sooner than NOW!!!
Been there, done that!!!
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
252. hookedontropics 7:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
What is Dr. Masters talking about?
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
253. AucunePression 7:14 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Too early to tell if that is a TD between Bahamas and Bermuda. Let's keep an eye on it and the rest of the Atlantic.
254. pirateotobx 7:15 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
I've been watching whats been happening in New Orleans and what I see down there sickens me. There are people down there that truly need help but there is a large portion of the people still there that have turned in to nothing better than animals..Going in to stores to get food or water to try to survive is one thing but looting gun stores etc...and roaming the cities in gangs basically running parts of the city is crazy. There should be a strong military/police presence in place and fast. I also feel that the authorities should be give permission to shoot to kill anyone that they feel is a threat to the city....this may seem harsh to many who read this but, to me, these people are animals of the lowest form..they are not doing these things for survival....I would not hesitate to shoot one of these people if was faced with this problem....... rescue helicopters can't even land because they are being shot at when trying to land....I am surprised at the slow response by the national guard and police to diminish this problem...The argument that they were trying to rescue people just doesn't cut it with me....While they were trying to save people these people were arming themselves and endangering many, many others who truly needed help...now rescues are being hampered by these animals that seem to be trying to take over the city.....There should have been a rapid response to both rescuing and protecting as soon as this problem began getting noticably more widespread.....

Usually after events like Katrina you see people working together to help one another...yes there is some bad in all cases but to this extent is unusual...the scary thing is that these people were living among us before the storm and ,if not jailed, will be again after the clean-up....somethiing to think about......I could go on and on....I just hope that the authorities get the city in order fast....
255. cgableshurrycanegal 7:16 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
w/in last few minutes a very little help in food drop at convention center says CNN
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256. leftyy420 7:16 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
a cold front is going to come thru the area on sunday. a low will develop on the front, like a nor-easter. that low will more than likely develop as warm core and be a tropical cyclone. at that point where it forms along the front will determine where it goes. the front is still 3 daya away from the bahamas
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
257. cgableshurrycanegal 7:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
cnn gallup poll 80% disapproval rate on how Bush is handling the situation
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258. leftyy420 7:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
AucunePression watch it all u want. its a shear zone and would never develop into a tropical cyclone. those showers will diminish thru the day. the cold fropn will be moving in in 3-4days and than u need to watch that area.
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
259. oriondarkwood 7:19 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
iyou,

I have faith in a person, less faith in people and the least in people in charge.
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260. cgableshurrycanegal 7:19 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
pirate, this is beyond the pale, you are so right. they are WAY out of control

Bush has just put his Dad and Clinton in charge of some committee as after tsunami.
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
261. leftyy420 7:20 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
you can see thee slow moving front over sc and goergia. that will move thru and on the tail of that front u will see the development of a warm care low pressure
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
263. lippy 7:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Orion - you're growing on me. This is more than a national embarrassment; it's an absolutely unacceptable, unbelievable failure on the part of the federal government at this point. Two days ago I thought it was a non sequitur for someone to be angry at the government for any of this - at that point it was a natural disaster. This has since gone way beyond a natural disaster. Our military can wipe Afghanistan off the map in three weeks, but we can't secure an American city from a few thousand looters within days and rescue dying people. Whay aren't the streets of New Orleans covered in tanks and paratroopers? Lots of ways to answer that question, and I'm not even going to try, but this is truly unbelievable. Bush needs to get his head out of his ass and EXECUTE A PLAN.
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264. hookedontropics 7:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
What is amazing, is that people can blame just one person, when this was a tragedy waiting to happen.
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265. cgableshurrycanegal 7:23 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
charity hospital now under fire as doing evac to tulane hosp as per cnn
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266. stevego 7:23 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
couple of words....where in the living hell are all these people that are supposed to be helping these people.
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268. leftyy420 7:24 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
its starts at the top and rolls down hill. but i make it simple. i blame all the leaders for how they handled this situation. people will say i survived the storm but couldn't survive waiting with no food to evac
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
269. cgableshurrycanegal 7:25 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
the gov't needs to send in troops and strike back.
End of story, and I am NOT a storm trooper, I am NOT a conspiracy theorist, my brother would be shocked to hear me say this.

We need to take back NO from the domestic terrorists that have taken over.
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
270. iyou 7:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
oriondarkwood - more bleak truth - but as long as that is recognized/acknowledged/accepted you can still persevere - knowing the dynamics will bring clarity to solutions.
Member Since: Julio 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
271. leftyy420 7:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
i don't care if it was clinton, regan, bush or who ever. i am balaming the leaders. the leaders droped the ball period
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
272. hookedontropics 7:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
You have to realize that alot is being done that we will never know. A few people are shooting guns a rescue workers, and that is all you are going to hear.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
273. raindancer 7:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
hooked... I have to say that I couldn't stand Clinton and I think he disgraced the country - however, it really says something when current President Bush has to have Clinton standing beside him today to be able to lead the country in this disaster! It speaks volumes for Bush's control - or lack thereof.
Member Since: Septiembre 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
274. KShurricane 7:27 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Hey lefty, if a depression does form off Florida, where do you see it going and how strong do you think it will be?

Also, a general question: if they ever manage to get everybody out of NO and drain the city, how many of the buildings will still be liveable and how many will have to be destroyed?
275. wrxpilot 7:27 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Here's a link to a scanner in NO:
http://205.252.89.181:8000/live.m3u

I can't listed as I'm at work. I heard a boat pilot just got shot though. WTH is going on!!
276. cgableshurrycanegal 7:27 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
steve, stuck just out the perimeter. very frustrated as there are no troops to protect them to get in and do what is needed to help. It's all a case of needing the military already.
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277. leftyy420 7:28 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
i saw people dieing today. i saw the mayor begging for help. why would the mayor be begging for help.
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
278. lippy 7:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Hooked - I'm not blaming anyone for the hurricane or the flooding... I'm blaming the Executive for the fact that helicopters and boats are being shot at and ambulances are being tipped over. Would Clinton have done any better? Who knows or cares, that's not the point. The Executive bears the responsibility - in government, in business, in a baseball game. That's how it works.
Member Since: Julio 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
279. cpeterka 7:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
.
How about a nationwide price freeze on gasoline prices?
Oh,yea... that would prevent his buddies from making a huge profit out of our misery. Remember the Operation Iraqi Liberation [ OIL ] campaign.

Gas up here in the PA/NJ area has surged to 3.40 a gallon today. And no end in sight.
Member Since: Septiembre 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
280. hookedontropics 7:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Nobody said a word when he used Clinton to gather national support for the tsunami.. You can not please anyone. I would blame local officials more than anyone.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
281. ear12603 7:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Well spoken, Lippy!!!
282. cgableshurrycanegal 7:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Clinton knows how to get things accomplished

Gov of LA says that they believe 1000s have been killed as per state officials, per CNN.

So where are all the trolls who called various bloggers naysayers?
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
283. leftyy420 7:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
it depends on where it forms cause 100 miles will determione her track. its to ealry with a system like this and that most models do not form one, not to say one won't form, just limits the data we can gather
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
285. leftyy420 7:31 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
AND FOR ALL U GUYS THIS IS NOT SOUTH EAST ASIA. THIS IS AMERICA AND THIS IS BEYOND BELIEF
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
286. raindancer 7:31 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Wow - CNN is SLAMMING Bush!
Member Since: Septiembre 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
287. cgableshurrycanegal 7:32 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
NH Union Leader, very conservative paper, has excoriated the Pres. CNN says NOONE is giving ANYONE in admin ANY kudos. Cafferty file is really slamming right now...
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
290. leftyy420 7:33 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
rain not cnn, the most conservative newspaper in america is. they were reading the editorial from that paper.
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
291. iyou 7:33 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
is cnn streaming?
- don't have a t.v.
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292. stevego 7:33 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
i agree totally....i think social class is playing a rather large part....yeah cafferty
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293. leftyy420 7:34 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
don't know goto cnn.comand see. i doubt it though
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
294. ear12603 7:34 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
Hey, Is that jackhole FEMA director on the ground in one of these disaster areas, or still working from his headquarters?
295. cgableshurrycanegal 7:35 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
steve, when they look at that elephant in the room, it is REALLY going to hit the fan. This is a MAJOR embarrassment.

I have nothing I can do to help. This is SO frustrating.
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
296. leftyy420 7:35 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
my wife, the most unspoken person i know, hw we got together i dount know lol, said thwe saem thing. if those were the rich it be diff than she said but wait, they would just drive out the city and go stay in a hotel cause they can afford to. so true
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
297. cgableshurrycanegal 7:36 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
earl, they are ALL in A/C with plenty of warm water showers, food and clean water
Member Since: Julio 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211
298. hookedontropics 7:36 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
CNN slamming Bush is something new?
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
299. pirateotobx 7:36 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
well the mayor of New Orleans and the governor of La. should be the first ones on the block.....they are on the front lines and knew of the conditions before anyone else...the mayor and governor should've declared martial law on the second day and taken control...now that it's to this point Bush need to quit worrying about politics and do what needs to be done....this is turning in to a national emergency and the longer they dink around the issue the worse it will get....more in a bit....brb
300. leftyy420 7:37 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
it wasn't cnn. they read the editoral from the most conservative newspaper in the us.
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
301. hookedontropics 7:37 PM GMT en Septiembre 01, 2005    
ONce these people are out of the city, if they are so poor, don't let them rebuild in NO, and help them with a new start somewhere new.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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