95L fizzles; Sierras brace for 5-10 feet of snow
A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has gotten less organized since yesterday. The storm cut off from the jet stream and acquired some subtropical characteristics yesterday, as it sat nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. However, satellite imagery shows fewer heavy thunderstorms than yesterday, and the storm has a more extratropical appearance as it interacts with a cold front to its north.
This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed winds up to 50 mph on the west side of 95L. Wind shear is about 30 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-40 knots for the next two days. This is probably too high to allow 95L to develop into a subtropical storm, and wind shear is forecast to grow stronger as the storm begins moving west-southwest on Tuesday. By Thursday, a trough of low pressure is expected to recurve 95L northeastward, and the storm is not expected to affect any land areas.
Huge blizzard expected in the California Sierras
One of the most severe blizzards of the past 50 years is expected to affect California's Sierra Mountains beginning Thursday night, January 3. A powerful low pressure system will establish itself off the coast of Oregon, and bring a series of heavy snow events with blizzard conditions to the Sierras through Monday. Five to ten feet of snow are possible in the high mountains. Travel will be nearly impossible in the high country next weekend, with white-out conditions and wind gusts near hurricane strength. This is going to be a great storm for filling the reservoirs that supply the northern half of the state with its water. Reservoirs should be at full capacity next summer, easing fears of a significant water shortage. Last winter's snows failed to fill the reservoirs to even 50% of capacity.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for December 30 for Georgia. Atlanta got one of its heaviest rains of the year today.
Happy New Year! I'll be back January 2 to talk about the Georgia drought. Heavy rains that fell today may have been just enough to keep Atlanta from setting a record for its driest year since record keeping began in 1930.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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through Wednesday afternoon...
Snow showers and snow squalls will develop Tuesday afternoon and
continue into Wednesday afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations
are expected to exceed 6 inches across higher elevations in the
western portions of Ashe... Watauga... and Grayson County. In
addition... gusty northwest winds will likely create areas of
blowing snow as well as very cold wind chills by Wednesday
morning.
A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor
the latest forecasts.
=============================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus [994 hPa] located near 18.9S 40.9E or 1515 kms west of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale-Force Winds 35 knots within 20 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant.
Near Gale force winds within 30 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 40.7E 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.5S 40.4E 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropical)
Additional Information
========================
Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus remains quasi-stationary within the last 6 hours. The system is expected tracking progressively south-southwestward then southward towards a weak in the subtropical high pressures belt and regulary intensify thanks to a very favorable environment (Warm Sea Surface Temperatures of 29-30C, Good Low Level Inflows, and Upper Level Outflows). Stronger winds extend further in the southeast of the system due to the gradient with the subtropical high pressures.
Best Wishes and Happy New Year 2008
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...|******|
...\******/
.....\.***/
.......{ }
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~ *clink!* ~
VERY COOL! :~)
Great start to an exciting year...
with Mother Nature adding the punctuation!
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At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [986 hPa] located near 19.9S 110.6E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is moving south-southwest at 5 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre in southwest quadrant decreasing to 40 nautical miles in northeast quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre decreasing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 02January.
Gale Force Winds within 100 nautical miles of the centre in southwest quadrant decreasing to 40 nautical miles in northeast quadrant with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000 UTC 02January.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.6S 108.5E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
==========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low [994 hPa] located near 12.8S 106.7E had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The cyclone is moving east-southeast at 14 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants
FORECAST
West-Northwest winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below Gale-Force Winds by 0000UTC 02January.
=========================
IDW23200
40:3:1:24:13S107E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0715UTC 1 JANUARY 2008
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south [12.8S]
longitude one hundred and six decimal seven east [106.7E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 14 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants
FORECAST
W/NW winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120
nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000UTC 2
January.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 01 January: Within 35 nautical miles of 13.7 south 109.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
At 0600 UTC 02 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.7 south 112.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 01 January 2008.
WEATHER PERTH
==========================
i had a lot links for south-west indian ocean for satellite images,current weather etc but i lost them (cuz my computre blocked) so
if someone knows something,can send it to me,please?(on mail or here)
thanks a lot
Happy New Year 2008
All the best for everyone
Shen
Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus
1300 UTC JAN 01 2007
Pattern Type: Sheared 3/4 degrees from center but excellent banding and convection remains.
Current Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997
Adjustments: None
Final Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997
Dvorak Trends:
1530 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.5
2230 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.7
0030 UTC 01 JAN 2008 - CI 3.0
1300 UTC 01 JAN 2008 - CI 2.5
13:00 UTC 01 JAN 2007 - Morondava, Madagascar (Toliara) - 24.6 mm
13:00 UTC 01 JAN 2007 - Morombe, Madagascar (Toliara) - 50.1 mm
Reference Map:
Paul Graham, Tuesday January 1, 2008 - 19:50 EDT
2007 was a warm year across most of Australia, according to weatherzone.com.au. The warmest spots were southern NSW, central Victoria, southeast South Australia and inland Western Australia. It was a year of continuing drought for much of the south. The year started with El Nino but finished with La Nina and improving rainfall in eastern states.
Some of the most significant weather was: extreme February heat in Western Australia (Marble Bar had a mean daily maximum of 44.9 degrees); warmest May on record in eastern states; three June east coast lows in NSW, bringing flooding and damaging winds (one beached the cargo ship, the Pasha Bulker); record cold and wet June in the tropics; widespread July snow in Victoria and NSW; flooding rain in late August on the Sunshine Coast (Coops Corner received a phenomenal 772mm 24 hour total); severe hailstorm in western Sydney on December 9th.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone 2008
Today's Topic: Air Quality at 2008 Olympics
Viewer Comments: Do you think China should hold the 2008 Olympics and if you was an athlete what would be your concerns?
Wednesday's Blog: California Storm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST TUE JAN 1 2008
A VERY POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS HAD A 954MB SURFACE LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...06Z GFS IS WEAKER BUT FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. 06Z GFS STILL HAS 6
TO 8 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE SIERRA FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND 3 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY...TO PERHAPS 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON. ASSUMING A 10:1 RATIO IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THIS `SIERRA CEMENT`...THIS TRANSLATES TO 8 FEET OF SNOW IN 24
HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THESE TYPES OF ACCUMULATIONS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG WIND EVENT WITH PERHAPS A
15-18MB GRADIENT FROM MFR TO SAC...A CORE OF 70KT WINDS AT H850MB
MOVES INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
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