Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

349. cchsweatherman 6:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Yes.

CatastrophicDL, I see your post now, I'm in the habit of just looking at the Sat Loops, then commenting & only reading through the other comments after I posted, I'll think I will try read most of the comments before posting.So it seems others & yourself has notice this area of convection also, it seems to be getting more organized by the hour since I looked at it early this morning, sure hope if it develops it doesn't come in our direction, Nov storms/Hurricanes in the Western Caribbean, though few in History tend to be very destructive & Powerful.BBL

Come to think of it, that is the old LLC that Noel ejected after forming a new one. I watched it go south past Jamaica, but I too stopped watching it. Now it has my attention.

that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange

Catastrophic, did you see the image I posted above? I would like to hear what you have to say.

355. DewyCheatum 6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange

On the radar, are you talking about the small specks that seem to be drifting across the state? That is very weird. Not weather-related I don't think.

They now have issued high wind warnings for the cape and the islands and flood watch is up for the se massachusetts.

Take a look at this QuikSCAT image. There is a surface low in the Caribbean!

QuikSCAT

Dewy - What the hell is that?

Sorry, should have mentioned that the link is NWS radar out of Melbourne

cchweatherwan, just one more comment before I have to run out in town, you are correct I think this was what I was following the old LLC of Noel actually passed between the Caymans & Jamaica that is why the pressures here was so low yesterday like 1004 & 1003 mb , I even posted about it, it will probably not go any further S now and kinda meander a few days then as systems usually do this time year if it doesn't dissipate & turn into something move NNW, then NE, my opinion only.

cchs, this is what I'm looking at LINK. I hope I did this right. It is my first link.

DewyCheatum and cchsweatherman,

I talked to the TBW office and they believe it's Chaff, or fiberglass pieces used to confuse radar by military aircraft.

Thanks Vortfix. I have been distracted by other things and forgot it was about that time!

Hi NEGuy, my husband is from Framingham,MA. His brothers live in Marshfield and one in e.falmouth..Any special advice he should give them or is local media on top of this one up there? His brother from Marshfield knew nothing of the storm as of last night...

my atlantic synopsis in image form:

900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.

Dallas Gumby- I'll post something shortly that indicates otherwise. The prime example is "The Long Island Express Storm of 1938"

NEXGUY , at least warnings are being issued, didn't catch your post in time,sorry. As for this 'chaff', does anyone know if it is common..maybe a military exercise? I'm in WPB and only see "normal 'clouds" I guess not visible to naked eye or up in higher atmosphere...strange.

900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.

Dallas Gumby- I'll post something shortly that indicates otherwise. The prime example is "The Long Island Express Storm of 1938"


Bonedog had some good comments on this topic this morning - something about if the storm is moving more than 20 mph, the effect is as if it's one category higher for every extra 10 mph of foreward speed. That may not be exactly right, but it was something like that.

hi everyone if something forms in the caribiean where will it go thanks

355. DewyCheatum 6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange
We have it on the Melbourne Radar as well. Very strange! What is that? Anyone know?

900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.


**************

You do add forward speed to the winds ...1938 Hurricane was moving at almost 60 mph and to the right of the eye; the winds from the storm were added to the wind speed of the storm..and it reverses the effects on the western side

369. KrazyKaneLove 6:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi NEGuy, my husband is from Framingham,MA. His brothers live in Marshfield and one in e.falmouth..Any special advice he should give them or is local media on top of this one up there? His brother from Marshfield knew nothing of the storm as of last night...

the usual advice for any tropical storm/hurricane,although technically its neither,but get any loss objects indoors,have flash lights available,stay away from windows.
Especially falmouth is going to get hit hard,but even marshfield is under the gun.

365. thetimmer 2:39 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
DewyCheatum and cchsweatherman,
I talked to the TBW office and they believe it's Chaff, or fiberglass pieces used to confuse radar by military aircraft.

Is this for real or off Food's paranoid conspiracy theory blog?

I believe the only time forward speed is really important is when a direct hit is occuring and the storm is traveling more than 15 MPH. This is what i have heard, but don't know the real sciece behind it.

375. Canesinlowplaces 6:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog had some good comments on this topic this morning - something about if the storm is moving more than 20 mph, the effect is as if it's one category higher for every extra 10 mph of foreward speed. That may not be exactly right, but it was something like that.

From a storm surge standpoint, that may be true. From a windspeed standpoint, again, the relative movement of the storm is accounted for in how the speed of a volume of air is moving over a particular location is measured; and, therefore, you don't add the speed of the storm to the speed of the winds within the storm.

besides that convection in the western caribbean,do you guys see any other circulation?

369. KrazyKaneLove 6:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

By the way the brother in marshfield doesn't watch much tv does he,this has been warned for the last couple days.

Stormybil, right now the steering for a surface low looks to head S or SW. I'm still working on sterring if we get more happening than a surface low.

Hey Krazy kane...see below

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1121 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG COASTAL
STORM SATURDAY...AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

MAZ022>024-022330-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0005.071103T1000Z-071104T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0004.071103T1000Z-071104T0400Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
1121 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY...WITH THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 85 MPH OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT
ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. TAKE ACTION
NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

It may be me, but it does seem Noel is moving more N. Just my Observation.

388. TampaSpin 6:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It may be me, but it does seem Noel is moving more N. Just my Observation.

yeh,I can see that too.

Decimus, we are also watching a mid to upper level low that is circulating at about 11N 55W. Vorticity forcasts indicate some possible development. But it needs to stay south of 12-13N to remain in an area conductive to development.

Tamp,its kind of a NNE direction

386. CatastrophicDL 6:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Stormybil, right now the steering for a surface low looks to head S or SW. I'm still working on sterring if we get more happening than a surface low.



Not much steering flow down there currently it will drift or stay stationary for awhile IMO

392. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel is looking more and more extratropical, especially on infrared. They may call it at 5 pm.

Still will be a wild storm though!

You got that right

CatastrophicDL 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Decimus, we are also watching a mid to upper level low that is circulating at about 11N 55W. Vorticity forcasts indicate some possible development. But it needs to stay south of 12-13N to remain in an area conductive to development.


Thank you ,thank you, i was not sure,i dint want to embarrass myself telling you guys about what i see cause i'm not an expert.

Dallas-
A quote that I admit does not fully back up my point about forward speed of a storm (couldn't find the one I was looking for), but, regarding the "Long Island Express of 1938":
/>Instead of recurving out to sea, the storm moved due north and accelerated in forward speed to 70 mph. In the history of hurricanes, this is the fastest known forward speed recorded. The incredible forward speed of the storm caused wind speeds on the eastern side of the hurricane to be extremely fast. Because hurricane winds rotate counter-clockwise, the winds to the east of the eye are moving from south to north. Because the hurricane was also moving in the same direction, the forward speed added to the already powerful winds. Eastern Long Island and New England would later be hit with wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph!

391. NEwxguy 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tamp,its kind of a NNE direction

Yep about 35-40Deg my guess

so I guess nobody even thinks of shuttering up in the NE..that's strange to those of us in the south, but i guess it's unusual to get hurricane force sustained winds...you are used to plenty of noreasters though..I just know my husbands bros. couldn't fathom his stress levels during Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma..didn't really understand the damage...I just hope no one gets caught off guard up there.

the ne gulf in the big bend area is an area reserved for military exercises. the air force and the navy use that area all the time.

As far as the Boston Globe goes, one small paragraph in the B section of today's paper. The AP article on Noel's prior damage in the front section actually stated that Noel will not affect the US!