Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:59 PM GMT en Noviembre 02, 2007 | +4 |


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Afternoon, good to see you
beginning to look like it may not get as bad as we thought
Oprah is doing a show on Hurricanes.Oooops, no wait, it's about makeovers...In the words of Rosanne Roseanna Danna, (NEVERMIND)
and how did you make that mistake?
NEwx.They showed hair blowing, I got confused
lol,ok honest mistake I guess
Interesting...
don't like that little patch of wind right over us in RI and eastern Mass.
do you finish your leaves......lol
NEWXGuy
do you finish your leaves......lol
nah,gonna see if mother nature does it for me.
Tampa.Is it a 7 year old hunk of meat?
yep
9:00 PM EDT October 02, 2007 Notes & Asides: A nontropical low pressure in the southeast Gulf of Mexico is not showing signs of tropical storm formation or transition tonight. Water vapor imagery still shows an upper level low dominating the region, with little sign of a surface center. Conditions do not appear favorable for tropical storm formation. There is still an outside chance we could be talking about a weak tropical depression or storm landfall along the Texas/Louisiana coasts in few days, but even that isn't terribly likely.The more interesting feature is located east of the Bahamas tonight. A lot of heat is being advected into this region, thus increasing the probability of surface low formation. A surface low will likely form near or over the Bahamas, and then it will begin to head west toward the southeast Gulf of Mexico or Cuba. Once near the southern Gulf, upper level conditions may become favorable for fully tropical development. The western Atlantic, northwest Caribbean, and southeast Gulf of Mexico will have to be monitored closely heading into the weekend.
WOCN31 CWHX 021800
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM AST
FRIDAY 02 NOVEMBER 2007.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST
... NOEL TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR
ATLANTIC CANADA ...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 325 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 600 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.3N 73.0W 978 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 35.1N 70.9W 972 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.8N 68.4W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 45.2N 64.8W 966 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 50.2N 61.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 55.1N 57.2W 970 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 59.8N 53.5W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 62.6N 52.7W 984 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
HURRICANE NOEL IS WELL ON THE WAY TO TRANSITIONING INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL STORM. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY
AND THROUGH LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CALLING IT A
POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AS IT PASSES.
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAIN HIGH WINDS AND POUNDING SURF ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH
NOEL AS IT PASSES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA ON THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ...
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST AND AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H INLAND. WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H FOR PEI ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BREAK TREE BRANCHES LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNLINED POWER LINES. ACCORDINGLY LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WRECKHOUSE WINDS OF
140 KM/H WILL LIKELY BE FORECAST BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
WEATHER OFFICE.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN ... 50-70 MM ... IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.
HEAVY POUNDING SURF SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ... WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 M EXPECTED. THIS WOULD MAKE SOME
BEACH EROSION LIKELY SOME AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE MOST PART AS WE
ARE MOVING INTO A FAVOURABLE PART OF THE TIDAL CYCLE. HOWEVER WE
RAISE A CONCERN FOR REGIONS ADJOINING THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT
IN THAT THE SURGE CONTRIBUTION TO THE TIMING OF A HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING COULD EXCEED THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BY 30 CM.
RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER
OFFICE AND BULLETINS BY THOSE OFFICES SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR
DETAILS.
NEwx.They showed hair blowing, I got confused
Did you tyhink Cantore...no wait, that woudln't work either...
Link
The Purple areas of water are Storm Warnings and the maroon areas are Hurricane-Force Wind Warnings. The orangeish-brown areas of land are High Wind Warnings.
MARTIN MITTELSTAEDT
Globe and Mail Update with Associated Press
November 2, 2007 at 12:41 PM EDT
The agency's Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., issued the forecast Friday morning. Canadian meteorologists think the hurricane will lose enough strength by the time it reaches Canada to be downgraded to a severe post-tropical storm, but they warn that it will still pack a punch with intense rains and strong winds.
We expect it to reach Atlantic Canada as what we're calling now a dangerous storm. It will not be a technical hurricane that arrives, said Peter Bowyer, program manager at the centre. Nevertheless, he said coastal areas could see gusts up to 130 kilometres an hour and about 100 km/h in inland areas. Ocean wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday night will reach eight to 10 metres, with individual waves as much as twice those figures. By the time the storm reaches the Gulf of St. Lawrence, it will lose some of its intensity and wave heights will decline to three to five metres, although they will still be six to eight metres along the south coast of Newfoundland. The heaviest rains will be in western Nova Scotia and southeastern New Brunswick, where amounts will range from 50 millimetres to 70 mm.
Forecasters say the Noel probably will not have devastating levels when it reaches Canada because it is arriving late in the season, when cooler ocean waters typically undermine the ability of these storms to remain intense. As well, the risks of a storm surge along coastal areas are considered small because the storm is arriving at the low point in the monthly tide cycle. The storm is probably not going to create a storm surge problem for us, but we're continuing to monitor that, Mr. Bowyer said.
In its wake, Noel left muddy rain-swollen waters in Cuba that washed into hundreds of homes, over highways and knocked out electricity and telephone service. Dozens of small communities were cut off. Cuban soldiers went door-to-door in low-lying areas and took about 24,000 people to safety, according to state radio and television reports.
The Bahamas received a record 380 millimetres of rain, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said. Flooding killed at least one man in the Bahamas.
[...] Full Story
Links:
Canadian Hurricane Centre
local Public Weather Warnings for Canada
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
9:00 PM EDT October 02, 2007
dude, that's a month old
So Noel is edging east agin?
Viewing: 501 - 551
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