Katrina--costliest hurricane ever?
The Hurricane Hunters measured a cental pressure of 941 mb at 7:07am EDT, up 2mb from the 940 mb pressure recorded at 5:32am. The maximum winds recorded at flight level (10,000 feet) were just 106 knots, which meaning that Katrina is still a Category 3 storm, even though the pressure implies she could be a Category 4. The reason for this is that a significant increase in the areal extent of the storm has occurred in the past six hours, so Katrina needs to spin up a much larger area of winds, which will take time. It is likely that by this afternoon, the winds will "catch up" to the pressure, and Katrina will go from being a small, weak Category 3 storm to a medium-sized strong Category 3 hurricane. Recon noted that the eye diameter has shrunk to 9 nm, which is about as small as the eye can get before an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If this is the case, Katrina will probably not attain Category 4 status until eyewall replacement cycle ends and a new round of intensification begins, which would likely not happen until Sunday. A few of the NHC intensification models from last night suggested the possibility that Katrina could reach Category 5, which is not unrealistic, given the warm waters and light wind shear over the storm. Katrina still has a way to go to reach Category 5; the convection and outflow are still looking restricted on the north side of the hurricane, and this area will have to "catch up" before we can talk about Category 4 or Category 5.
The favorable conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. But as usual, intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, and we don't really know how strong Katrina will be at landfall. The track forecast is also problematic, until Katrina makes its northward turn. She is apparently beginning to do so now, as the track has been wobbling more westward that west-southwest the past few hours.
Emergency management officials in New Orleans are no doubt waiting to see where Katrina makes her turn before ordering evacuations. However, if I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away, so I would get out now and beat the rush. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so.
Insurers estimate that Katrina already did about $1 to $4 billion in damage (total damage is roughly double insured damage). This is a shocking number for a Category 1 hurricane, and bodes ill for the residents of New Orleans and the U.S. insurance industry if Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 storm, which would likely cost $100 billion. But, New Orleans' amazing run of luck could well continue at the expense of Mississippi or Alabama or Florida. Like Camille in 1969, Katrina may come ashore far enough east of New Orleans to largely spare it.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
Link
Here is a site for EARLY data BEFORE NHC public site.
While it is in Corpus Christy The data is NHC.
It also has a live Noaa Radio link.
See column of links to the left.
I wish Tampa had a site link this! BayNews 9 is always at least an hour late.
Where LA is so far below sealevel anyway, and if this hurricane makes a direct hit, i'm thinking what they sait when it bounced off the bottom most part of FL, where it was so swampy, the weather people said it basically didn't slow katrina down much because it wasn't like hitting true dry land....so when (if) she runs into LA directly, there won't be much resistance because Katrina will be making her own little warm water bay out of NO and bring in the ocean with her and basically her own fuel supply.... is it likely that she won't lose much punch on landfall and therefore wreak even more havoc further inland than normally expected...notwithstanding the expected and previously estimated damage to NO that is writen up in the link StormJunkie has been providing......
did my question make enough sense?
I really think you should leave now. We have lots of hotel rooms left in Galveston. Can't you take the River Road (isn't that the name of the scenic route that takes you east to I-10??) Take that to I-10 and come to Galveston. You can get off I-10 somewhere around Winnie, I think (look for sign), and that will bring you the back way into Galveston. It takes longer under normal conditions, but may in fact be shorter under current conditions. You'll have to take the ferry from Bolivar to Galveston. During Ivan we had LOTS of people here. My boyfriend and I met people from all over. I live RIGHT on the seawall here so I feel your anxiety, and if I were you I'd leave NOW. If I can help in any way (finding you a room or whatever), let me know.
~Hairball (female in Galveston)
I'll ev
The storm is in some of the warmest waters seen in a long time. The potential for the hurricane to grow is great. There is no external weather event that appears to be capable of weakening Katrina at this time. Therefore Katrina will maintain herself to be a powerful threat to the gulf region.
Time to wait this one out from up north and see where the chips will fall in the next 72 hours. Be safe and wise down south.
NOTE: There are many more hotels here than what I've listed. But the following hotels are ones I called in the past 15 minutes to check on availability for tonight and Sunday night. I live here in Galveston, and I haven't listed any hotels that I wouldn't stay at myself. I hope it's okay to list this here; I'm just trying to help. The national reservation numbers will have you on hold forever right now and internet access is probably hit-and-miss right now too. The following phone numbers are all local.
HOLIDAY INN-SUNSPREE 409-762-4141
SATURDAY: Handful of rooms available ($154+)
SUNDAY: Plenty of rooms available ($134+)
HOLIDAY INN ON THE BEACH
**Sold out both nights**
SAN LUIS 409-744-1500
SATURDAY: Plenty ($189+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($149+)
BEST VALUE INN & SUITES 409-740-9000
SATURDAY: 6 rooms left ($89+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($49+)
HILTON 744-5000
SATURDAY: Handful left ($179+)
SUNDAY: Handful left ($159+)
THE VICTORIAN 409-740-3555
SATURDAY: **Sold Out**
SUNDAY: Plenty ($89+)
LA QUINTA (1402 SEAWALL) 409-763-1224
SATURDAY: 20 rooms left ($159+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($89)
LA QUINTA (8710 SEAWALL) 409-740-9100
SATURDAY: Less than 20 ($129+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($99+)
COMFORT INN 409-741-8888
SATURDAY: 15 rooms left ($129+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($79+)
BEST WESTERN 409-740-1261
SATURDAY: Plenty ($99.95+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($59.95+)
If anyone needs any more information, just ask and I'll try to get it for you. ALL of the hotels I called said they their phones had started ringing off the hook in the past hour or so from people fleeing the hurricane, so I don't know how much longer these rooms will be available.
With the memory of Ivan, in particular, still quite fresh, please allow me to urge those of you to our west to consider evacuating NOW. Get out of the way of others and spare yourselves the danger of being caught out on the highway.
As other have pointed out, the problem will be massive traffic on I-10 if New Orleans needs to take to their heels. I-10 really can't handle "routine" evacuation traffic from Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida -- much less some combination of those areas.
Right now, most people in Pensacola are staying in place. I bet there are still accommodations toward Tallahassee. Don't stop here -- just keep going east until you find something. Panama City, Tallahassee, Lake City, and Jacksonville are the big stops.
If I were in New Orleans, I'd run west. Everyone else goes east.
Good luck, y'all.
Living in Slidell LA...sent my family east just before noon on I-10. They are now east of Pensacola (driving to Cen FL)...traffic was busy but moving with no problems. I'm sure it won't last.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/281.jpg
This storm has grown in diameter significantly. This storm is going to be a big problem this week right up the eastern third of the country. Flooding is of big concern.
Viewing: 301 - 318
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index