New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.
Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.
Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.
The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:
Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?
Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?
Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?
What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?
Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Even if it doesn't develop further, the potential WNW movement means the Bahamas is likely to get some heavy rains this weekend and early next week.
Those are some great pictures. I especially like the ones of the Mt. Pleasant lightning. I would also like to thank you and hurricane91 for answering my question so quickly.
Good Night all, and hopefully I will get a chance to follow the blog tomorrow.
looked interesting on satellite to be sure...not wicked though.
quiet season....thus far...
As jp said, if it threads the needle and everything tracks exactly right it could easily develop, but there are a lot of variables that could impede any development.
I guess, to me, there are two definitions of "hype":
1. Saying this will become Hurricane in the next 36-48 hours...and saying then, it will explode to a cat.5 hurricane in the GOM>
2. Having a very in-detail discussion about a wave in the caribbean, with the news and everything all over it. Though I guess, in this meaning, it's like having a discussion.
Well, anyways, I was reffering to the second meaning...
Also, to be more on topic, it seems to be losing some of its steam right now. Though, probably in the next few hours it'll fire up again. Not to mention, the ULL is becoming more of a threat to this system. And there is simply no low at the sfc...as most of you guys have pointed out.
Anyways, tomorrow it's either dead with no convection or looking better than ever...as how it goes with most systems..lol
Wait and see game..and btw, sorry for the post being a bit too long..lol
...no floater on it yet?
SEE:
Link
IR & Vis Floater CRS
goodnight all. rugby on the beach in Ft Myers this weekend. looks like weather will be ripe to give me a nice tan...
I even said, that's good if we're "hyping" in that way. lol...I mean, at least we are paying attention to the wave, and, not "under-hyping" it. So I'm glad we are "hyping" the wave in that sense.
So, let's just drop the "hyping" thing, becasue you guys are having a great discussion, and letting a lot of people learn a lot...and keeping everybody a wary eye on that wave; well, if anything were to develop out of it.
...and thanks Sailor.
No fight, just healthy debate ☺
Nice - No JP - I know that no one wants a big cane - just worried about the saturation - it could get really bad if something pops up or that wave comes in -- now as a cane. sorry if it was offenseive
Sounds awesome - never got the chance to play on the beach - played in college and club 6year after that till knee went - sounds really cool. O- I was a scrumhalf
Could'nt get to sleep for some reason.....even though this thing is nothing...that is yet...i think i cant sleep because of the hype of development...so whats the scoop everyone?
TropicalMan07.....PLEASE don't bring up the word "hype"! lmao
On a side note, I have found except for the sick few, the folks that do hype are usually only doing so due to lack of understanding.
Night jp
i play for orlando RFC
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