Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT en Junio 13, 2007 | +3 |
F5: Devastation, Survival, and the Most Violent Tornado Outbreak of the 20th Century tells a story from the world's most violent tornado outbreak on record--the April 4, 1974 Super Outbreak. The Super Outbreak featured the most tornadoes ever recorded in a single day, 148, and also had an unprecedented number of violent F4 and F5 tornadoes--six F5 tornadoes and 24 F4 tornadoes (for comparison, the past five years have had one F5 tornado and 15 F4 tornadoes.)| Permalink | A A A |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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just kidding. Look it is a simply wait and see thing.
1) we need an actual surface low prove its existence.
2) we need some intensification to make it atleast at TD.
3) then we can really start looking at that time where it might go.
If it waits a until sat or sun. to become a td it could mean something completely different than if it were to get upgraded tonight.
I have a couple of things in mind. One is that the "low" may not actually be as far N as the Navy site says. That would not be unusual as we have seen low centers repositioned many times before until certainty is reached.
Secondly, it is possible that the low may actually be quite diffuse, that is more broad in nature and not actually a tight surface low in a particular place. Only the Quikscat pass can resolve these types of questions.
Of course it may well be that the pass shows a clearly defined low center near to where the Navy says it is but I am always a little sceptical with June systems, especially complicated by the near proximity of the ULL
Link
GOM, Florida and the Western Caribbean.
Is that mass of showers coming behind the dry air going to knock out the trough?
you can't buy the immediate forecast i suggest waiting till it is in the Gulf of mexico.
Barometer Bob just explained that the low on the east coast will block this system from moving north
steering is weak and it could just sit and spin in the NW caribbean for the rain
yea thats what i am saying.
This season has good aim...the GOM...but right now shooting empty shells
should be about 11pm for the first GFDL run I would think.
Between the quickscat and GFDL we should have more clues as to 94L's fate......
Well forget this, no amount of coffee will let me stay up that late.
what does that mean ike that the ull is moving to the east with regards to where this system is going
It shouldn't be in the way to shear 94L or inhibit any intensification.
Well, I've got to go for the night, I'll be on tomorrow at some point.. =D
Hang in there and keep predicting!! It works well to have several different Points of view on a subject.. Great work Everyone!!
What I have been trying to say, I'm sure we are not even close to as fast as the "official" channels but this blog seems to know what is going on well before the channels let it be known to the general public.
Pat selves on back now, do not break arms while doing so though. LOL
Hey drak back at home anything new
if you haven't heard we have 94L the low is just north of the island of Roatan, honduras. On the satellite imagery we can see the outflow of the system as well the the strong upper level winds (which are forecasted to be less hostile to allow for some development)
Link
LOL
I said it at 8am this morning!
Saw that right as i was leaving work about an hour ago have any new models come out to support or deny the early runs at central florida for the second blob
we are waiting for the GFDL probably at 11:00pm this isd probably the only model i will go by as of now.
Looks like a panhandle Storm / Central gulfcoast strike if the models are correct :) Almost perfect
I would not trust that model consensus since it is only the first run and the current motion of the low suggest a more NE movement. Models have a tendency to have a dramatic change in the future runs.
thanks kman! :)
you have had time to study it, your thoughts??
"me and jp said invest by tonight looky here..."
LOL
I said it at 8am this morning!
yeah, well I said it at 755am!!! LOL!
where did you get that image?
my link has not yet posted it
Do you have a spread for the area all the way to Cozumel ?
LOL
What I see there so far is all straight line winds basically from the E but would like to see further North
Posted By: Caymanite at 1:40 AM GMT on June 15, 2007.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas76.png
can some one give me a link too the model plot?and is louisiana at risk from this?
too early to tell.
I have the link for the hi res quikscat page but that image has not loaded on mine yet !
can some one give me a link too the model plot?and is louisiana at risk from this?
They could be. Then again, they might not.
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