Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Seems to me that the cmc was the most accurate...seemed to have it pegged pretty closely right from the beginning (if i remember correctly).

Ok feel free to believe that about the CMC and no barry was tracked best by the GFS-GFDL and ECMWF... only thing the CMC picked up on was where the development will take place..after that it changed landfalls on each run..and finally after landfall it was off saying the Panhandle from Panama City-Pensacola.

There is definatly a surface low trying to get going there. You can see the low level cloud field starting to focus on that area.

The GFS had it going thru Sarasota...about 50 miles off and it made landfall near TampaBay..

Remember Beryl last year? She formed from the tail end of a front.

I had /have lower pressure in my FEMA trailer bathroom than Barry. It was a puff and a shower and goodbye. It wasnt a challenge for anyone ..or any model.Any Dell in Aruba could have forecasted BArry and its motion..

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin
Link

I agree the cmc had a pretty good handle on Barry and as far as track, it seemed like the middle of the road between the GFS and the CMC did very well.

What happened to 42057?

do you seem a bit more interested today? lol

After I saw that spin this morning, and since RECON is going out.....

lmao pat :~)

Nothing..they just moved it SE..a lil SJ.

The QUIKscat data on the Buoy...is good.Link

It's over 2hrs old on the data? That isn't normal is it?

will this thing move thru the yucatan channel or cut acroos the cuba .

and i agree the gfsx was the best on barrys path even with 7 days out .

Guess it is only updating every 3hrs...

seems that the upper level winds a riping apart the system Similar to what happened yesterday.

CMC did a good job with IVAN..with most models saying he would go to florida..but CMC kept it further south before the turn into the gulf. We (as Mets) look at consistancy in the model runs and which models perform the best overall. We prefer the GFS in the short term and ECWMF in the long...and with tropical systems and branch between the GFS and the GFDL...but other models do catch on from time to time.. but its consistancy.
Even with the disturbed weather in the NW carribean right now. There are convergence troughs with vortexs. There is no main surface low as of this time. But it dont mean 1 wont develop. Probably be closer to the area 50-100 miles ESE of Cozumel right now drifting N. As you already seen..the CMC showed a moderate TS going into SW florida yesterday..then 0z runs had to going to N.O. now the current 12Z run has it a TD or tropical low going back thru SW florida. Consistancy. CMC is "most of the time" all over the place.

at this point a don't see a RECON flight happening, although this could change overnight.even though the shear tendency indicated decreasing upper level winds the winds are still strong out of the west.

Ok i just took a quick peek at the CMc and its not showing anything Am i looking at it wrong

clearH20FLA look at the 850 mb vorticy it changed its projected path. Now it has the low moving through central-south Florida.

anyone have a link for the cmc thanks

This seems to be the area of greatest interest at the moment ( just near Roatan island )

Thanks

You have to remember that global models don't properly represent tropical cyclones. Link

Link
CMC and other models. I just wish that we had models suck as the UKMET and the NOGAPS so we could have a better idea on what this system is doing.

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:05 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

clearH20FLA look at the 850 mb vorticy it changed its projected path. Now it has the low moving through central-south Florida.

I thought for tropical systems one was supposed to look at the sea level pressure models? I suppose the others would be good for guidance/track, though.

yes Kmanislander and it seems that the CMC is picking up on it. With a defined low pressure system. Look at the 12z Run it shows a low coming out of the general area north of Roatan.

Posted By: SWFLdrob at 5:09 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:05 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

clearH20FLA look at the 850 mb vorticy it changed its projected path. Now it has the low moving through central-south Florida.

I thought for tropical systems one was supposed to look at the sea level pressure models? I suppose the others would be good for guidance/track, though.

850mb is at the lower levels.

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:08 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Link
CMC and other models. I just wish that we had models suck as the UKMET and the NOGAPS so we could have a better idea on what this system is doing.

Drakoen, I've got a present for you:
NOGAPS
UKMET

the upper level low near the Caribbean is forecast to move to the northeast into the GOM pulling the moisture with it.

NOGAPS and UKMET show nothing developing at the moment..

Drak i see two blobs crossing am i reading this right

HurricaneFcast i saw those. I meant i wish the other models were picking up on the low so we ahve a better idea on where it is going as well as the intensity of the system.

The rain has begun in my neck of the woods. I live in Pinecrest.

Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:14 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Drak i see two blobs crossing am i reading this right

yes but one is stronger than the other the one that you can sea using the sea level pressure is the strongest. its the one that crosses over Lake O.

Thats what I saw ClearH20Fla.

The GFS does have a hard time picking up on tropical systems...but its what us Mets use at the NWS with the NAM at times.

if this becomes an invest we can rely on the GFDL to help us out with the forecasting. That area north of Roatan is most intersting at this point. THe CMC and the GFS pickup on this area.

the NWS not the NHC..the NWS dont use the NAM for tropical systems...but really the NHC dont consider them also.

cool party time

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:02 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.
at this point a don't see a RECON flight happening, although this could change overnight.even though the shear tendency indicated decreasing upper level winds the winds are still strong out of the west.


This sounds almost like a direct quote from May 31st when we were talkin about what would become Barry...LOL

Posted By: seminolesfan at 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 5:02 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.
at this point a don't see a RECON flight happening, although this could change overnight.even though the shear tendency indicated decreasing upper level winds the winds are still strong out of the west.


This sounds almost like a direct quote from May 31st when we were talkin about what would become Barry...LOL

LOL maybe so. system that form in the Caribbean have a tendency of being "weird" with their development.

us Mets??

is that New York Mets? LOL