Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

guys i told you their will be no tropical activity to speak of for the rest of june...all the little blobs you see in the caribbean are just that blobs...no development guys so dont go scaring people the shear is just to strong plus we have a strong northerly flow...as long as that stays in place and it will for the rest of june we have nothing to worry about...you guys need to take a little break and come back in 3 weeks...then you may see something quite interesting off the african coast...you guys behave and dont argue over blobs they are not going to do anything except rain themselves out...if anyone sees lefty tell him to get in touch with me either by fax or telephone...thanks you guys have a great evening and play nice...StormKat

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:09 AM GMT on June 14, 2007.

FLBoy he was just making a statement, if you are going to be offended by his statement you wont stand a snowballs chance in hell in here this season when it gets active

trust me it can get bad here in the heart of the season, I should know lol, if this upsets you, you havent heard anything yet

i agree as well. We are people and as people we have opinion. we must tolerate each other and come to a consensus.

It gets bad during Cape Verde season, lots of westcasting......

Posted By: stormkat at 12:09 AM GMT on June 14, 2007.

guys i told you their will be no tropical activity to speak of for the rest of june...all the little blobs you see in the caribbean are just that blobs...no development guys so dont go scaring people the shear is just to strong plus we have a strong northerly flow...as long as that stays in place and it will for the rest of june we have nothing to worry about...you guys need to take a little break and come back in 3 weeks...then you may see something quite interesting off the african coast...you guys behave and dont argue over blobs they are not going to do anything except rain themselves out...if anyone sees lefty tell him to get in touch with me either by fax or telephone...thanks you guys have a great evening and play nice...StormKat


did you look at the models?

oh well. I think i will take a break from this site for a few minutes and take a shower.

Brother stormkat has spoken. AMEN

good evening all

The pressure at the buoy S of the Caymans is down to 1006.8 and here it is now 1009. It would seem that something is now trying to get going in the NW Caribbean

yes. thats what the models are for. to forecast. Forecaster are sometimes precarious with something developing especially in a situatin like this. No one wants to say something definitive. So basically we say wait and see game. happens or it doesn't

lol jp.

Seems so, green goes down, blue and red go up......

wind shear is too strong?

not by this map wind shear is vary low

Keetch Byram Drought Index for FL...most counties in central FL have gotten the beginnings of drought relief...

Thanks STORMKAT for your usual arrogant reassurance. Really wish that you could be a bit more sociable and less antagonistic this year. You might want to study the genisis of hurricane Alma in 1966. {Yes it was early June}.I have because my father almost lost his life in it aboard a cargo ship coming from Florida to Cayman.

He has ??. Well maybe mother nature is starting to speak too LOL

Anything above 20 or 25 knots would be kind of rough for the storm, and I don't want to hear about our miracle baby (or storm) Barry forming when conditions wouldn't allow.
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Not every blob will develop.

just read through a few posts....interesting stuff...also looks like someone is a little hot under the collar today...lol

hows everyone doing this evening?

Hi Caymanite

Good to see you on here

Or JP this thing does develop and because the strongest June storm on record. Just going through scenarios.

Hi Kman, beieve it or not I am here more than you are but just dont post regularly. Remember this is what I studied after high school.

like oh give a dran about me this keep going with out saying hello too me i go jump in the cold lake now

Central and southern FL rainfall totals...this front has been nice. Okeechobee southward getting it right now.

wow....sounds like a few in here could use a break from the pc and a tall one...lol

lol dont use computers and i could give a rats axx what they say im telling you nothing will develop that is worth my time for the rest of june....computers guy will mess with your mind their one big joke....use the water vapor satellite and monitor the azores high and any upper level lows thats what you look for and the enviromental conditions surrounding the hurricane...computers are a big waste of money in my book...they could of used the money to send up a new weather satellite being the one up there now is down....that means guys they will have to widen the hurricane watch area when they issue one and that will cause all kinds of panic....this year could be very interesting when the cape verdes season starts...stay tuned ill keep you guys informed if anything changes....StormKat

doing ok JP you? when could we see 94L or 95L?

Caymanite

I do remember. I post when there is something potentially to talk about. Based on what happened with Barry and all the new bloggers posting at a mile a minute I suspect that when we do get something else to talk about it will be chaos on here

could i say some in to you StormKat? shut up

All i was doing was discussing the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis based on model analysis as well as the environmental conditions.

Stormkat, you try to sound so superior and condescending. I'm sorry but if you say it's raining I put on sunscreen. If you truly have anything of use to say you might try discussing it, it would be a pity that your message was ignored because of the tone IF it did have value.

FLBoy and Drakoen I have benefitted from both of your viewpoints in the past. Seems we are a bit testy today?? Could just be the weather??? LOL

Neither one of you seems to have been terribly injured by the others posts from what I gleaned while skimming so why don't you just kiss and make up?? Rejoice with me in the fact I found an outfit to wear to a wedding after 2 days of HARD shopping!! LOL

And BTW, blobwatching is an innocent pasttime that has become inifinitely more interesting this year because NOTHING set in stone with tropical weather.

VilleWatch~ DR Jack Beven has a good site full of links.

Kerry Emanuel is another to become aquanted with, ya really need a few weeks or more to digest all the research he's done in the field.

Where you located?

I really don't think anything is going to develop at least for the next couple of days (look at the vapor satellite).

now now JP

No one wants to say something definitive

Okay, FLBoy...Stormkat... let me be definitive aswell. Based on current shear, MJO, Surface pressure, Moisture content, SAL, & SST's... I'm going to have to say that anything is possible.

Though, I must admit... shear is Definitely not favorable off the east coast... Which isn't a spot where storms generally form in June. And shear Is only marginally unfavorable off the W coast of FL through the Lesser Antilles.(As shown in TAZ's NHC shear map)

Tell me, why is it that nothing is going to form? I mean... Aside from the only SLIGHTLY less than favorable shear over the Carrib and E Gulf (20-30KTs).

WPB you are right when you say not every blob will develop. but in a place like this every blob is watched. When models forecast something interesting predicitions start being made. just the way things are.

jph

I agree. No one knows for sure whether something will or will not materialise. It doesn't even have to be the tropics, it could simply be whether severe or simply run of the mill rain storms happen on any given day. Of course anyone can say that a hurricane will not happen in the next hour when there is not even a TD around but that does not make them a weather specialist !!

Anyway folks, before Admin comes on and smites everyone for bickering I would suggest we get back to blob watching LMAO

yes Hellsniper thats what i want to hear. The shear is expected to srop so i don't really know why people don't think that there is the potential for tropical cyclogenesis.

Lurking...