Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ozone pollution improving in the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:03 PM GMT en Mayo 01, 2007 +2
Air pollution season is here, and the good news is that ozone pollution in 2006 was considerably better than in previous years. Along with pollution due to small particles (particulate matter), ground-level ozone is the most serious pollutant in the U.S. Ozone levels in 2006 showed improvement in 23 out of 35 of the major cities in the U.S. (Figure 1) compared to 2005, and was at or below the 10-year average in all but five cities. Atlanta, Georgia, showed the greatest jump in the number of unhealthy days, from 17 in 2005 to 30 days in 2006; however, this number was still below the 10-year average. Many western cities reached levels at or above the 10-year average, including San Diego, Sacramento, Denver, and Las Vegas. This was in part due to much above average summertime temperatures in the western U.S. (Figure 2). Los Angeles had the worst ozone pollution in the U.S., with 46 unhealthy days. Los Angeles also was the most polluted city overall in 2006, according to the American Lung Association. However, Los Angeles' bad ozone days declined by 16% in 2006 compared to 2005.


Figure 1. The number of days in May through September of 2005 and 2006 in which ground-level ozone reached Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups--an Air Quality Index (AQI) above 100. Corresponding 10-year averages are also shown. Image credit: EPA.

Ozone pollution has improved
Is the improvement seen in ozone levels in 2006 merely due to a lack of meteorological conditions that favor air pollution? To check, I've plotted the difference in surface temperature (degrees C) from May-September 2006, compared to the 10-year average from 1995-2005 (Figure 2). The chemical reactions that form ozone are most efficient at high temperatures, so if the summer of 2006 was cooler than usual, we'd expect a drop in ozone levels. However, the summer of 2006 was the second warmest in U.S. history--but ozone levels still dropped. All of the cities where ozone increased significantly in 2006 over 2005 levels were areas where temperatures were above average. Los Angeles had summer temperatures more than 1 degree C above normal, yet still recorded a drop in ozone, suggesting that strategies to control ozone pollution there are paying dividends. In fact, new rules to limit nitrogen oxide emissions from power plants have been enacted nation-wide in the past few years, and the ozone pollution statistics from 2006 are evidence that these emissions rules are working. Ozone pollution since 1980 has dropped 21% (Figure 3), despite the fact that the average summer temperatures have generally been increasing.


Figure 2. The difference in surface temperature (degrees C) from May-September 2006, compared to the 10-year average from 1995-2005. Temperatures were above the 10-year average across most of the country, except for New Mexico, and portions of the Ohio Valley surrounding Kentucky. Image credit: NCAR/NCEP.


Figure 3. Trends in ozone air pollution in the U.S. (white line) and uncertainty (blue areas, marking the standard deviation). The federal standard of 0.08 ppm is indicated by the dashed line. Since 1980, maximum ozone levels have declined 21%. Since 1990, the decline has been 9%. Note that the lowest ozone levels were recorded in 2004, which was an exceptionally cool summer across most of the U.S. Image credit: U.S. EPA.

Next blog (Thursday): Pollution costs and deaths exceed the impact of a new Hurricane Katrina hitting the U.S. each year.

Jeff Masters
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151. StoryOfTheCane 2:36 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
we could be about 20 days away if the shear forecast is right, txag91met, its not WAY too early at all, i would phrase it A LITTLE BIT early
152. Levi32 2:36 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
txag91met - Just give them a break. We're all anxious for the season to start lol.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462
153. Bamatracker 2:36 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Ana looked cool
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
155. weathermanwannabe 2:37 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Awesome shot....What I notice is that there appears to be lot more moisture off the coast this year than last year...I guess the Saharan dust, which killed a few storms last year, will not play as big a factor this season?
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
156. Bamatracker 2:39 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
well I wouldn't say porn.....but it is cool to watch all the different aspects that make up a conducive environment for development of hurricanes come together slowly over the month of May
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
157. Patrap 2:40 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
7
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
158. StoryOfTheCane 2:40 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
hey, a wave is better than the long global warming arguments, I say hype the wave all day lol
159. StoryOfTheCane 2:40 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
hey, a wave is better than the long global warming arguments, I say hype the wave all day lol
160. Tazmanian 2:40 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
hello
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
161. pottery 2:41 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Logic, what brings you here, then ?
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20722
162. weathermanwannabe 2:42 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Most of us are weather addicted; much more healthy than other forms of addiction.....
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
164. Bamatracker 2:42 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
sshhh sotc....dont mention gw...dont want to get anyone riled up.
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
165. pottery 2:44 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Hi Tazmanian.
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20722
166. Bamatracker 2:44 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
im addicted to weather.....gets me in trouble all the time lol!
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
167. kmanislander 2:45 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
logic

you have something else to talk about-- like global warming perhaps ??

or maybe politics ??

What gives. This is a weather blog
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
168. StoryOfTheCane 2:45 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
is the High being so strong the reason for the excessive shear at the moment? this image kind of makes me think that.

169. weathermanwannabe 2:47 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
I know what you mean; my Wife is calling me right now ("get off the Blog and get to bed")...See everyone tommorow......
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
170. Bamatracker 2:48 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
i think this shear is normal around this time of year....maybe:/
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
171. StoryOfTheCane 2:50 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
yeah, its just kinda weird to see the Highly Unfavorable shear almost surround the high at all angles
172. pottery 2:52 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
I'm out too. It's 11;00 here man. Goodnight all.
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173. kmanislander 2:54 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
good night to those who are leaving. Only 10 pm here LOL
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174. Bamatracker 2:56 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
anybody have a windshear map that shows departure from avg.?
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
175. kmanislander 2:57 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
High shear is the norm for this time of year. In fact water temps in the S Caribbean would support tropical systems all year were it not for the increase in shear come Nov through May/June. Some years have high shear most of the season and others the opposite.

We will have to wait and see how the season sets up
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
177. kmanislander 2:59 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
logic

no offense taken
the reference to porn was a little harsh though LOL
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
178. TheCaneWhisperer 2:59 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
That is why storms don't form in the East and Central Atlantic until late July, high shear! The Bermuda high will not settle into place until early July! The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is where you need to be looking now. If these early waves hold together across the Atlantic, they may spark some interest in the west. It could be what the GFS was looking at yesterday!
179. TheCaneWhisperer 3:01 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
West Caribbean that is!
180. Bamatracker 3:02 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
alright...i need to call it a night too. Good night all! keep it pornfree!!
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364
181. kmanislander 3:07 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Catch you tomorrow Bama

I just looked for a wind shear anomaly map but did not find one. Certain times of year have higher shear than others and this is still high shear time. Several factors come into play to determine shear levels and they are seasonal in nature like the jet stream location, troughs and how far South they dig, the TUTT location etc.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
182. kmanislander 3:11 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
good night all
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183. Rodek 3:20 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
I've heard mention of very large "rogue" waves being produced during hurricanes. Is there such a thing?
184. weatherboykris 3:20 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:50 AM GMT on May 02, 2007.

yeah, its just kinda weird to see the Highly Unfavorable shear almost surround the high at all angles



Not unusual at all.I remember this time last year it was just as high or higher.Perfectly normal.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
185. weatherboykris 3:20 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Posted By: Rodek at 3:20 AM GMT on May 02, 2007.

I've heard mention of very large "rogue" waves being produced during hurricanes. Is there such a thing?


Yes...wait a moment for more info.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
186. TheCaneWhisperer 3:21 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
This was interesting though, from the NHC!

LATEST GFS MODEL RUN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW
OR TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
187. weatherboykris 3:22 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Ivan had waves of 91ft.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
188. weatherboykris 3:23 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Learn to read a surface map,canewhisperer.The vertical line is the waveLink
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
189. Rodek 3:24 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Thanks Kris!!! 91 ft... wow!!!
190. weatherboykris 3:24 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
No offense.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
191. thelmores 3:28 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
if you study the loop of mid atl to Africa, you can see that that 2nd wave is already being sheared a little..... and UL winds to the WNW are zooming ENE....

high shear/relatively low SST's = no invest!

But after last year, even a blob is exciting! LOL

2006..... the year of weak multiple vortice storms! (sp?)

multiple Vorti? LOL
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192. weatherboykris 3:31 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
vortices
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
193. TheCaneWhisperer 3:32 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
A- I know how to read a map, there are several vertical lines as you call them on the map, otherwise noted as surface troughs. When there is an official Wave the NHC will post a special section concerning tropical waves. This area in question is behaving like a wave but, is not classified as such at the current time.
194. weatherboykris 3:35 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
You called me Levi.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
195. weatherboykris 3:36 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
And...a wave is a wave.They marked a wave on the map,they said there was a wind shift on the buoys and Quikscat.It's a wave.Not worth arguing over,as it won't develop anyway.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
196. TheCaneWhisperer 3:45 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Sorry Kris, seems to be alot of kings going on here, I confused you with the rest.

Just tell me where the wave is verified here?

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N47W. THE LARGEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 23/24W ON THE 18Z SURFACE MAP. DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED A BIT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CAME OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST TWO DAYS AGO AND HAS BEEN MOVING WWD SHOWING
SOME TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS. AS THE DAY WORE ON...A
DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED NEAR 23W SHOWED A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA APPROACHING
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.


197. weatherboykris 3:50 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
The wave was verified when they put it on the map!
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:00 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
if ur all stress now 28 days out i cant wait till i see u here in june remember T-MINUS 720 hrs and counting till hurricane season
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
199. weatherboykris 4:01 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
I'm not stressed.It's no big deal.
Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
200. Tazmanian 4:05 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:35 PM PDT on May 01, 2007.

You called me Levi.


LOL

No offense weatherboykris
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
201. Levi32 4:13 AM GMT en Mayo 02, 2007    
LOL.......I see I built quite a reputation after my debate this morning.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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