Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Weatherboykris

Had to step away for a bit
Arc cloud=outflow boundary
Link

Very interesting looking for April. Has that "comma" shape

Dr. Masters, I agree that the radios are a very good thing to have, We have one too. But building standards & other factors like shelters are just as important, as well as where they are located if they will hold everyone needed. But what angers me is that only mobile homes are targeted for tornado safety. What about Schools & apartment buildings,etc. There are a lot more factors involved than just the fact that it is a mobile home. Unless you are below ground level, your chances of survival are slim, in any home if it sustains a direct hit.
I am in Wichita, Ks. The 1991 "Andover, Ks." tornado came through Haysville & Wichita before going through Andover. I have lived here most of my life but that was the first tornado I had ever seen. The path of destruction was tremendous. Afterwards, Wichita started requiring mobile home parks to have shelters. In fact, they must have enough for ALL residents. Many didn't have any or enough space for everyone. Most apartment buildings have no where for their residents to go & not even a way to warn them but they aren't required to have safe places but they should have to. Our children should be safe in school, too. Building standards for all homes should be improved.
I need to give you some details about our experience to get to my point. Because warnings were slower then, the TV reports had the tornado still in Haysville, south of us, about 10 - 15 min. away & we had JUST got that info & the sirens were just going off. But the tornado was on our doorstep, literally. The shelter was on the other side of the park. We ran out the back door & hung on to the porch as it went over. Everything around us was being torn up & debris was flying everywhere. My husband watched the privacy fence, about 20' behind us, peel off & the metal shed, 10' from me; peel open like the tornado had a can opener. About 30' away, an 8'- 2'x4' impaled the neighbor's house. An ice chest landed in front of me. I kept my head covered, I didn't want to see what was coming at me. I wondered, "Is this my time?" I kept waiting for the flying debris to hit me, but God was protecting us. We never heard or felt anything, even the wind. We truly believe God had an angel surrounding us. When it was over, we had to walk around to the front door as the back one had locked on us. I ran out barefoot, but got through all of the debris in the yard & into the house & through all of the glass & debris inside, to the bedroom to get a clean pair of shoes. Neither of us had one scratch on us. I don't need to describe anymore. You have seen enough aftermath's to know what the ground looked like when it was over. I have pictures of our house & area around where we were laying to show all the damage & debris Most of our Mobile Home park was leveled, ALONG WITH the REGULAR HOUSES behind us.
The house was a single wide & sustained $16,000 in damage to the structure alone. In 1991, that was a lot, it almost totaled it out. It was only 3 or 4 years old. The man we bought it from, was an aeronautical engineer. When he bought it, he put nice looking steel skirting instead of that vinyl that most places want you to use & the house was tied down really well. That steel skirting was still in place. Even with all of the damage, we did not have to relevel it or reset it, unlike the other few that were still standing.
We were safe, due to the grace of God & the forethought of the previous owner. The same storm resistant standards for mobile homes, should apply to all homes & visa versa. The reason more people are killed in mobile homes, is because there more people in a more confined area. The mobile homes were no more destroyed than the other homes behind us.

I hear a lot of moaning & bitch'n on here about the price of gasoline. Yes, I agree that there is a real risk of the price going to $4.00 per gallon if we get hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico this season.

While blaming Bush & Cheney are you driving a big gas-guzzling SUV or pickup truck? It is everyones responsibility to try and conserve gas. I take the bus to work Monday, Wedneday, & Friday. I drive a 2005 Toyota Corolla. Toyota had discontinued the Echo in Model year 2005 & didn't have the Yaris available until the following year otherwise I probably would have bought one.

This energy crises is not going away anytime soon so ask yourselves what you can do to help alleviate the problem.

We pay US$5.0 per imperial gallon.
It could be a lot worse up North

BBL

once we vote away these republicans the gas situation will be better... however, I guess the gas prices at least decrease usage some. I'd rather see that 53.4 billion dollars go to mass transit and alternative fuel research though, rather than a fleet of Leerjets for the oil company CEOs and to bribes to Cheney.

Here's a good article on Ellis Race Track a year after the tornado. Amazing only 3 horses & no people died in that storm. In the end it revitalised & found a new buyer for the aging track that was being treatened to go simalcast only. All fixed up, thanks in part to insurance, handles are at record highs.

Thats right it's all the republicans fault. Once Hillary is in office all the problems just disappear. We'll see, I'll put money on it that I'll be able to find plenty of problems that occur during the democrats time in office. Don't try to blame one person for a problem like gas.

We should try to avoid the politcal stuff because it can get pretty nasty.

"Mobile homes... ...must come equipped with a weather radio... ...how many mobile home owners will simply turn off their weather radios...?

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him (or her) drink.

Added later> I checked the SAME code on the weather radio here (a fire station) and someone had entered the incorrect code. The set up on this popular unit was a little counterintuitive, so it is easy to imagine that some will be too lazy or otherwise unable to achieve the proper set up.

Find your SAME code.

I understand the Bush administration hasn't been perfect but putting the broad classification of it be the republicans fault is what I think is wrong. Then assumming the democrats will automatically be great about the situation is what I also have a problem with. Right now were going through a ever increasing technology age and that requires gas, so of course gas will always be rising. There have been natural disasters that haven't helped. It isn't solely the presidents fault... and reread my first line before you think I'm saying you are completely wrong.

UGGGHH!

another Global-warming-like rant!

those evil republicans! the democrats will save the world! LOL

sorry I can't hang out to hear more! :)

Check out The Presidents Ranch in Crawford Texas. Very efficient and he built it before he was elected. BTW... owning a diverse portfolio is smart investing. You who bash the republicans cannot possibly believe that those rich Democrats dont have petroleum stocks in their portfolios....do you?
Gore makes twenty grand or so a year from a zinc mine located on HIS land. Oh by the way, Those carbon credits he buys to offset his usage come from HIS OWN COMPANY. Wake up people.

Check out The Presidents Ranch in Crawford Texas. Very efficient and he built it before he was elected. BTW... owning a diverse portfolio is smart investing. You who bash the republicans cannot possibly believe that those rich Democrats dont have petroleum stocks in their portfolios....do you?

Hmm - I am from Midland and I remember where they got their money. It is not a democrats vs republican issue. You really need to look into the oil field history. I grew up through bust and booms. Don't ever down a person for not taking a chance an a future. Also - don't forget that the refinery have to be upgraded very soon - it will effect the stocks.

Also - when you talk about the stock market - or should I say the commodities market - in the same breath with global warming -- it is an oxymoron.

I agree. The problem is that petro prices have only been an issue lately. If you factor in inflation, gas prices are where they should be. We haven't built any new refineries since the seventies. This issue will die when the dems take office in 08. And it wont be because they did anything about it.

Also im not downing anyone. I'm tired of rocks being thrown at the president. I have serious problems with some of the decisions he has made. However, most of the crap being thrown at him and the republicans here and elsewhere just dosent stick.

If you factor in inflation, gas prices are where they should be. We haven't built any new refineries since the seventies. This issue will die when the dems take office in 08. And it wont be because they did anything about it.

no first, the issue will not die because in America (as well as other places) petro as become a necessity of life (whether we like it or not -- remember that you need oil to make plastics and some fertilizers). Second, although I am not a person to say that the sky is falling. There are limited reserves left in the world. And most are not in advantageous place political. As I said before, it is not a democrat/republican issue -- it is a world issue. The price of gas, including heatin oil, is going to continue to rise. The effect is going to ripple - in order words you are going to pay more for everything that you buy at the store. Goods have to move. Whether by ship, train or truck -- they all use a gas byproduct.

Lastly - on the commodities market - you have people that have never predicted the profits of oil. after the last bust in approximately the late eightys -- alot of the people who actually knew the industry went to other fields. You will see the instability at the first hint of the possibility of a can sneaking into the gulf this season.

The petro problem is a world problem. Also - the refinery problem is a byproduct of the lust for more profits and the demand for lower energy prices that were created in the last bust.

Also im not downing anyone. I'm tired of rocks being thrown at the president. I have serious problems with some of the decisions he has made. However, most of the crap being thrown at him and the republicans here and elsewhere just dosent stick.

He as a president makes decisions. It is interesting how his own party is turning on him. However, it is not about throwing rock but about the people stating what they want from their government

Come on, folks. No matter what side they're on, most politicians care about one thing: Lining their own wallets.

The simple fact is that petroleum supplies are a problem. We'll do OK for a while, with the discovery of the Athabasca oil sands, but a long-term solution is needed. That means funding chemists, NOT climatologists. Of course, we do need the latter, but finding better sources of energy needs to be a priority. We can survive limited climate change.

Face it. Oil has replaced religion as the biggest source of conflict on earth. The only solution is to find an alternative. Quite frankly, I think that SOLAR energy may be our savior. Where wind is reliable, it will make an excellent adjunct.
Please stop the political mudslinging... Spend some time researching alternative energy and ways of reducing consumption. Instead of reading up on what democrat wants us to use 1 square of toilet paper or which republican wants to invade iran, learn about compact fluorescent lightbulbs, geothermal heating and cooling, solar panels, wind generators, and hybrid cars. You'll find that YOU can make a difference, if only a small one. And if enough contribute, it won't be a small difference afterall.

Oil has replaced religion as the biggest source of conflict on earth. The only solution is to find an alternative. Quite frankly, I think that SOLAR energy may be our savior. Where wind is reliable, it will make an excellent adjunct.

you are totally correct. But as long as there are fortunes tied with oil - I am not sure that it will happen. As I said before - the petro crisis is not a democrat/republican issue but a world issue.

It's all about money. I agree that solar,wind and other alternative fuels are good for the environment. However, as long as people are more concerned about themselves,and not about each other, that's the way it will be. How unfortunate. Egos will be the downfall of us all. Hu

Hey everybody goodmorning, From the look at the 2 MOST ECENT GFS LOOP CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARRIBEAN IN 1 TO 2 WEEKS!

From looking at recent runs from the GFS the one thing thats sticks out to me is that the GFS has begun developing these fantasy storms that have to be taken with great caution which 85 percent of the the time never take place. This will only get worse as we get deeper into the season.For me personaly i look for model consistency from different models along with a host of other factors that have to be taken into consideration.

Overall i think its still a tad bit to early for this type of event to take place.The 00Z GFS has 1006-1008mb area of low pressure developing in the caribbean moving NE towards cuba.On the 06Z the GFS contInues to show a weak area of low pressure 1007mb in the caribbean moving NE.Anyway this should be used as a wake-up call that hurricane season is fast approaching take care adrian.

Adrian's Weather

2 weeks to East-pac..Id say we have a lil while mo to wait....Jazzfest Here in Nola.We a rocking! Jazzfest 07 A slideshow Link

Hey Stormw!

Nice and sunny here in the Florida Desert...aka Jacksonville. Almost time to warm up the anti-cyclonic generators for hurricane season.

Morning all.

Good to see you rx7, been awhile!

For those of you looking for a "second opinion" re: the GFS model, go to the GFS Parallel site. It is basically the experimental GFS model with new equations and I believe a more enhanced grid field. The GFS-P model is scheduled to be turned into the operational GFS model on 1 May. To view the GFS-P model, just go: HERE

How's it going crown, good to see you and thanks for the info!

Good morning from the Caymans

There are signs of a transition into the season.Although the Caribbean is still very dry overall we are starting to see persistent showers in the S Caribbean. This is also the breeding ground for any early season activity that might occur so the evolution of moisture levels will be of interest to all.

DUM DUM DUM DUM DUMMMM...

I've been checking in now and again. Been busy with work and lack of weather here in Jacksonville.

Last frame of the GFS (850 mb Vort.) has a low with a spin just north of Puerto Rico on 5/14...could that be our first storm of the season. Yeah, yeah, it's two weeks out...

Story,

How persistent is that High in that area?

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,70131-1263216,00.html

Earthquakes in England. Hate to have been in the Chunnel during that.

Morning all...

hi