Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hot, then cold!

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT en Abril 10, 2007

A long and severe cold snap across much of the Eastern U.S. has caused considerable damage to peach and berry crops, canceled numerous baseball games, and brought up to four feet of snow to Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Here in Southeast Michigan, we had our coldest week of April in 25 years, and a new winter storm is likely to bring 2-6 inches of snow on Wednesday. All this wintry weather comes on the heels of the second warmest March in U.S. history. The National Climatic Data Center released statistics showing that March 2007 was 5.6�F (3.1�C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5�F (5.8�C) across the lower 48 states. Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. More than 2500 daily record high temperatures were set from the East to the West Coast during the month. On the 13th of March alone more than 250 daily high temperature records were set. The earliest high of 90�F (32�C) occurred in Las Vegas that day and the daily record was broken by 6�F (3.3�C). For the month as a whole more than 200 daily record highs of 90�F or greater occurred in California, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and areas of the Southeast. In contrast, Alaska had its third coldest March ever.

Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere departure of temperature from average for March and the week of April 2-9. Note how the pattern of warmer vs. colder than average temperatures reversed over North America between the two time periods. Images are plotted from the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data, which has interpolation porblems over data-poor areas like the Southern Hemisphere and oceans, so these areas are not plotted. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

For the year, the U.S. has had an average January (49th warmest), colder than average February (34th coldest), exceptionally warm March (2nd warmest), and now a very cold April. Climate change science really doesn't have much to say about whether sharp temperature fluctuations like this will become more common in a world undergoing global warming. For now, I'm just attributing the past month's wild swing in temperature to natural variability. The jet stream moved to a completely new pattern between March and early April, reversing where above average and below average temperatures occurred over North America (Figure 1). Where will the jet stream set up for this year's hurricane season, determining the dominant hurricane track? I'll have my first discussion of that in late May, since the jet stream position is generally not predictable more than two weeks in advance.

Swindled?
On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a program titled "The Great Global Warming Swindle". In the words of conservative commentator Thomas Sowell, "Distinguished scientists specializing in climate and climate-related fields talk in plain English and present readily understood graphs showing what a crock the current global warming hysteria is." I've been asked by a number of people to review the movie, but haven't found time to do so. It got yanked from youtube.com for violating copyright laws, but is available from UK TV Channel 4. The scientists at realclimate.org reviewed the movie, and call it a fraud with distorted, misrepresented, and incorrect science.

My next blog will be Thursday.
Jeff Masters

After the Storm (DavidJohn36)

Easter Snow (taylor1)

Categories: Heat

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301. Rodek 11:51 PM GMT en Abril 11, 2007
Just got off the phone with my brother (police officer) in Valley Alabama... He said a tornado with large hail passed south of him near Smith's Station.

302. thelmores 12:08 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Yea that tornado near Columbus does look nasty! Looks like a stormy nite for Fla./Ga./Sc heck the hole east coast! everybody stay safe! Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

303. StoryOfTheCane 12:09 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007

304. thelmores 12:15 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
hey...... what good is a picture with no commentary! :D Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

305. TheCaneWhisperer 12:41 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Not sure what is up MissBennet! I can get to the TSR and click on the forcast and times out the download because it is going too slow! Maybe they are having problems with thier site.

307. cloudlover 12:53 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
WOW...4" Hail in Phenix City, Alabama.....mann, that size will come through the roof. Hope everyone has their helmets on.

309. jake436 1:09 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
There's more coming, and the one that looks as though it will pass just north of Tampa (M7) has some decent hail with it. Link Member Since: Agosto 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271

311. mermaidlaw 1:14 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
I am in hernando county and we are getting hit big time!! Thunder, lightening, and hail!! Member Since: Julio 23, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 8692

312. pottery 1:16 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Good evening. Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

313. Ldog74 1:26 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
yea STL, thats not exactly what you call weak..., notice the way above normal temperatures in the GOM just off the coast of the FL Panhandle, if that were to stay at that level it would potentially be a very good aid in strengthening just before landfall of a tropical system. That being said, its a couple months for that to even be an area to worry about something strong hitting, so its not really something to take much notice of now. Just a thought, cause I am bored. Member Since: Junio 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165

314. SevereWeatherFreak 1:53 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Hello Everyone. Been a while since Ive dropped by. But with the rumbling and flashing goin on outside here in Largo (Tampa Area). I thought Id stop in and see what the topic of dicussion was and take a look at some of the radars. No hail to report here in Largo jake. Just a nice show.

316. StoryOfTheCane 3:41 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
weird

317. cajunkid 3:48 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
LOL..NAwlins aint going No where folks..and heres why..New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize Member Since: Julio 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

318. lilmax 8:46 AM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
My weather nose is smelling a significant amount of reports of severe weather the rest of today.

320. Patrap 12:13 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Tour..1920's Nawlins Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

321. MissBennet 12:32 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
ok looks like they fixed the TSR link, and not much has changed. 16.7 Tropical storms 9.2 for hurricanes and 4.2 for intense hurricances. That's acctually down a hair from the March report. LOL! Here's the link: Link

322. MisterPerfect 12:44 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Hey Pat, I think I saw a bum get beat up during Mardi Gras in one of those old alleys... Member Since: Noviembre 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470

323. hurricane23 12:50 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Prefrontal trof bringing more heavy into south florida during the next hour or so.Rotation showing up on radar with possible hail. Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

324. thelmores 1:16 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
morning all..... The rain is gone in Myrtle beach, and lots of sun, already 70f.... hope everybody has a good day! :) Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

325. hurricane23 1:18 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
cell with possible large hail! Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

326. hurricane23 1:42 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Line is not weakend much and will be pushing into miami dade and broward counties! Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

327. MisterPerfect 1:46 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Get ready Miami... Link Member Since: Noviembre 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470

328. hurricane23 1:58 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
Rotation showing up in several areas! Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

329. SMU88 2:14 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
hurricane23 where do you get that map on the oncoming thunderstorms? Member Since: Agosto 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

330. MisterPerfect 2:18 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
I can hear the thunder already... Link Member Since: Noviembre 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470

331. hurricane23 2:27 PM GMT en Abril 12, 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING! Member Since: Mayo 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

332. HurricaneSurvivor 6:27 PM GMT en Abril 13, 2007
Dr. Gray disagrees strongly with the alamists. I'm curious as to what Dr. Masters thinks about his recent comments. Member Since: Julio 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

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