Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

just have to learn how to navigate it and it is pretty helpful...find the name David (1979) and just zoom in untill you can see that david hit the GA coast...se of mud river or something

thanks cj i thought i had heard that no hurricane had ever hit the GA coastline so i guess i have learned something new today

I have to go to supper. Weatherboy i put my prediction out as NC but it got erased by the administration. now that wasnt cool): .............bye...

your welcome dash....that site is very knowledgable :)

how long will it be know before we how long the High Pressure will be to keep this thing form Florida?

Thanks, cj....good link

Hello all. I know many of you don't put much stock into models. But after trending south and west for much of the last day or so, the latest modely runs show a retreat back to the north and east.Significantly. Take a look.Link I'm interested in what you all think.

(They need to fly a recon in there it also improves accuracy of the models a little and then they will know where the actual center is and actual strength,personally I think if they flew a recon into it it would be upgrded to 45 mph tropical storm moving due west or slightly north of west and the west - northwest direction right now is debateable and seems to be slightly north of west.) Jedkins

Yes Jedkins and StSimons I knew it was something I was forgetting to include in my post from earlier today...Also when I spoke to Chris with ImpactWeather he mentioned that he did not have a clue why the NHC did have any recons scheduled for Irene for the next two days. He was very professional throughout our conversation but I could tell he thought it was crazy of the NHC for not sending a plane to Irene as well - even though Irene is just a depression right now.

Well HurricaneKing I hope your cousin gets better soon and I'm sure others here feel the same.

Oh and by the way, thanks everyone for the kind words from earlier. You see the way I see it some people write poems for a hobby; some play sports for fun; others make music as that thing that fulfills them the most...well, obviously our fulfillment comes from observing and discussing the weather on a daily basis...we are unique group of people with a common interest so let's make it an enjoyable experience for everyone involved.

CaneAlum, I also just noticed the GFDL making a major shift to the right, with Irene not even coming close to the US. Your link shows the BAM models also doing a major shift right, so they could all be onto something. We will have to wait for overnight and morning model runs to see if this trend continues. It is a bit strange how the models have been gradually shifting left a little at a time for a few days and then suddenly do this.

your welcome mary.....cane03, sometimes when the direction shifts like it did today from the west to wnw that makes the models change,but in reality i dont know.......randyman, i totally agree with you and mostly i like your attitude and outlook on everything...i appreciate your info greatly! so keep it coming. lol...im leaving for now be back later tonight..c-ya......ceej

Well ComicEvents I'm glad you asked me that question because I learned something today from ImpactWeather regarding steering currents over the tropics.

StSimons from talking with Chris earlier the 'vibe' I got from him was that he felt Irene may try to make her way toward the Georgia coast next week. Now in what capacity of strength, that remains to be seen.

Oh and by the way HurricaneKing, despite what others may have said yesterday its ok for you to say hello everyday when you arrive here. Outrocket don't waste your time and energy with negative people in life - they only will bring you down in the long run.

see... what hawk said...thats what happened :)lol later

anyone give and predications on the High for this storm?

I copied a small portion of the Brownsville Forecast Discussion here for anyone interested...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FIRST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
410 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005


OUT IN THE TROPICS...AFTER THE 120 HOUR MARK...THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIB TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...STRONG 500 MILLIBAR RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. APPEARS TO KEEP THESE FEATURES SUPRESSED TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...FURTHER EAST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE 120 TO 240 HOUR RANGE. THE ECMWF REFLECTS SOME
OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS/DISCUSSIONS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

who is flagging my comments? that last one that got erased was pertinent to the conversation. This really aggravates me.

No Change in Strength in Irene Yet, Could Become a Tropical Storm on Thursday

Issued: 9:15 PM CDT Wednesday, August 10, 2005



At 9PM CDT, we estimate that the center of Irene will be near 23.2N/59.4W, or about 705 miles southeast of Bermuda. Movement west-northwest at about 13 mph. Maximum winds are near 35 mph, with gusts to 55 mph in squalls.


Clusters of intense thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of Irene this evening. Though thunderstorms are increasing, a well-defined circulation center is not yet evident in satellite imagery. However, wind shear has decreased some along the path of Irene and we expect the depression to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Thursday, possibly as early as tomorrow morning. Irene will continue to pass through an environment conducive to gradual intensification and the system could become a hurricane over the weekend.


As for the forecast track, all model guidance is indicating a general west-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days as Irene is steered by a ridge of high pressure north of the system. We see no reason to disagree with model guidance. Our forecast track continues to be closer to the southern edge of the guidance because Irene has continued to track a little to the south or left of most of the model guidance. A weakness in this ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop by some model data late in the weekend which could turn Irene to a more northwesterly track in the 4 to 5 day time period.


Our confidence in the long-range future of Irene has improved only slightly today, but it does appear the threat of an east U.S. Coast landfall appears to be increasing. Irene could move very close to the east U.S. Coast before it turns northward, or it could make landfall anywhere between northern Florida and Cape Hatteras around next Tuesday. At this time, it appears the threat of a landfall in the Carolinas is increasing, while a threat of a landfall along the east coast of Florida is decreasing.


The next advisory will be issued near 8 AM CDT Thursday.


Mark Mathiesen

well, the models are shifting all over the place so irene will be a hard storm to track. gotta go..................

Well, it's been upgraded to TS Irene again, still has the track as before.

IRENE GETS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...the weakness these models are finding in the high behind the bermuda ridge has filled in..the high nw of the bermuda ridge will begin building westward over the next 36 hours and by that time we will be able to tell how much a threat or if irene will be a threat to florida...if the high is strong enough and starts to push irene on a wsw heading and irene continues to strengthen then we will know the fla coast from miami to west palm beach will be the bullseye...if the high ids not as strong the bulleye will be charleston sc...i will say id recon goes out there the first thing in the morning they will find a strong tropical storm with good banding features in all directions...this storm is really getting it together tonight..i do have information the computers are out to lunch on this one im sorry but they are all over the boards....the bemuda high will bridge with the high to the nw and strengthen just how much no one knows for sure..one more thing irene will probably become a hurricane sometime tomorrow...the stronger it gets the stronger the high building west will be ..remember that this is very important concerning where this storm will go...my best guess now and im not making a prediction yet is somewhere between miami and daytona beach florida...i will have a better prediction when i review the data i been waiting for..ill be back on with a solid prediction tomorrow around noon...i think recon plane will be down there early in the morning..they would i imagine be coming from san juan....thats all i have right now ill keep in touch...

stormtop thanks for the update..i really appreciate your analysis...i willl check in tomorrow...see ya
ceej

Unfortunately this is definitely not a boring week. Prayers for all of you on the eastern seaboard. Y'all can pray for us when storms come into the gulf. All the best to everyone!

I have to agree with stormtop and my forecast calls for the same.

This is a really funky look at night!!!


Look in the lower right corner. It is best seen animated!

Ok, I have tried so hard to ignore the people on this site that annoy others but I have got to say StormT, you might just be close on this one. I already see a more W than NW motion. I know in the GOES it looks like a due NW motion but the fact that this is not a HURRICANE (yet), and by there own admission the NHC says they have no F'n clue after 48-72hrs. Remember they(the experts) have been trying awfully hard to curve this N and out to sea. The local weather station pointed N after 48hrs. (dumb-asses) But!! I also have a tremendously difficult time dissagreeing with "SUPER" computer models. So at this time I am going to say that tomorrow morning will be groundhogs day. Yes the center is going to be "further to the left" or even more west of earlier predictions. I posted earlier today the infamous Hurricane ANDREW's TrackLink

What I need to know from you and others with knowledge (or good net searching skills), seriously, how strong is that H-pressure building to the north? Is a stall possible? Is the SW motion possible. The below surface water temps diagram that Mr. Jeff Masters posted earlier today scares me. If this system does move due W Anywhere from Florida to SC could be in serious troubleLink

Good night all. I am hoping to wake up with Irene above 25N. (wishfull thinking). This one is throwing everyone from the NHC to the NAVY and especially the UK way off. So if any system deserved everyones attention, this is it.

Sorry here is the look at night link!! oops!

definately looks like its got more of a northwest element to the track right now. i think florida is totally safe if it holds this track for a few more hours. however, i think it's forecast to move more due west with a possible southwest element in the near future as this ridge builds in. any new data out there showing evidence of this ridge building stronger than forecast? please provide a link if you can. thanks!

Wow, the storm is moving quickly to the Northwest now. Almost over 25 N

ok guys as soon a the trough washes out on the east coast the high will begin moving westward..is it strong enough to push the storm on a more sw track we will find that out in the next 24 hours...this storm has strengthened all night and i suspect when the recon plane gets there they will find a strong tropical storm winds of 60-65 mph...its looking good for florida right now because irene is on a wnw to nw headding nothing to steer the storm yet but that will change throughout the day...i dont want to call florida out the woods yet until i see irene pass the 26 degree latitude line...it is forecast to bend back towards the west sometime today and thats why i cant call fla out yet...i will have more info at noon today and im interested to see what the recon plane finds when they get out there today...dont let the wnw to nw motion fool you right now...my thinking as of right now hasnt changed since last night..i still think around the 25 -27 degrees lat where it makes land fall...however that could change if the high is weaker then expected and would have to be moved up to charleston which would be the bullseye...be back later about noon or sooner....

Florida is definitely looking safer to me though anything is still possible including no US hit at all.

I hope your right Stormtop about the high coming in and pushing Irene towards FL. I have my hopes up...

The eyewall of andrew is looks the most intense I have ever seen a huge thick band of very deep convetion surounding the the eye maybe that is why anderw was so darn devastating.Because they now belive that hurrcanes esspecially when they are stronger have tons of little vorticies that can produce winds up to 300 mph but only last for a very short time and are small but as a storm get stronger they believe these vorticies increase in intensity and coverage.Dont remember the source of this information but I can assure you it wasn't fake though and I think it found during hurricane charley.

dont know if the GFS model was updated, but it does push Irene down SW...

Link

Yes I still believe florida could be the target to unless the ridge doesn't build back in like the models are saying but most of the cmputer models are quite off sayiing it will go out to sea is very unlikely.

That is updated all right but one thing that gfs does there which is very unlikely is it disipates it into a trpical wave and heads it to florida but as it is moving into increasingly favorable condition for devlopment I find it almost impossible for Irene to disspate but the strentgh at this time has nothing to do with where it goes that gfs track is interesting.

Wind gusts in eyewall vortices can reach 200 mph, not 300. Only the very strongest tornadoes spawned from supercell thunderstorms can produce 300 mph wind.

But I think that the ridge could easily build back like what happened with Andrew jus I dont think Irene will hit as a cat 5 lol shouldn't even joke about a 5.Anyway the conditions wouldn't be right for a 5 buthey did expect to only reach a category 1 but that was 1992 alot has changed since then.

Jedkins.. the GFS model has it sort of stalling near the H. and then suddenly coming SW. I think it will be like that, but it wont dissipate

I think you are quite mistaken my friend these vorticies are NOT tornados and no one can prove that a hurricane can not produce an an f5 weather and science it - self is not all fact and no one knows for sure exactly what formst tornados to begin with but this I have hear is ceratin because concrete complexes cannot be literally levelled by a category 5 unless what I have posted occurs because not only that they have seen with this situation that that smaller weaker concrete buildings next to where mostly destroyed(ruined) but not leveled and yet a larger stronger conctrete complex can be leveled you cannot argue with that but no more arguing anyway lets not fight like little children ok everyone?

thats a looong run on sentence Jedkins ;)

Ya me to I think it could be veered of back to the west shouth west or southwest because it is very possible that when and if the ridge re - strengthens that it would totally change course and could no longer move north and that is why I believe that florida is definately out of the woods yet not to mention The southeast florida coast gets hit more than ANY area on the east coast of th U.S. look a the amount of hurricane strikes for florida compared to other states it shows that florida gets hit MUCH more than any other state 2 would be north carolina third is texas 5 is Lousiana 4 is south carolina 7 is alabama and mississippi is 6.I dont rember exactly but I think that is in order from most frequently hit states I know that florida is easily number one based on the NHC storm history but it has been a little while an I am not sure exactly which order those are in but all those are top 7 I am 99% sure on that though.

Darn typo's!!!Makes me look like a bad speller and right but I am not though.

Dont matter I get sick of corecting my typing errors it will take forever but I rwally am not a bad writer or speller

YAY.. FL is #1 in something

why dont you read what you write before you hit "post" button. It certainly would make your comments much easier to read.

I think he is trying to say use punctuation marks.. lol

Just checking in, things may finally get interesting with Irene, I am not going to bother with a offical prediction on this one because I haven't had time to really look at all the data (darn work and life keeps interfering with my hobbies). But I think Irene hitting or aleast brushing the NC coast as a cat1 hurricane is possible. So the posters on the NC coast might have some fun mid of next week. The good Doc suppose to be back from Yellowstone today. Maybe he has some good insights on Irene

I from NC. I like the new track. It keeps it off sure.

Shore I meant.

StormTop....we need your prediction, now.....not tomorrow at noon....you said yesterday that it would be today at 5am.......or are you going to say tomorrow that you will wait until saturday......come on.......where......when.....how strong........dont be scared to go out on a limb.......and your not going to scare anyone.......nobody on here, if they have any sense will listen to what we say over the NHC....if they do, I feel sorry for them.......