Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

if that 10.5 N develops is the chance big it hit my island

This stuff goes on all the time during the summer. Can't turn every storm into a hurricane. Of course the TV weathermen have to have something to do other than predict high of 90 low of 78 and afternoon thunderstorms!

yeah but this year is the atlantic warm and the shear low so that is what worries me

g2g if ya see more updates about this post it in my blog thnx in advance :)

It isnt rather or not a storm is going to hit land that is exciting to me.

I just love watching teh darn things period.

I dont care if they are only going to bother the wee little fishies. The fact that it is named Irene now is excitment enough for me! HEHHHEEE!!!

hey hurricane if your still there where do you think the center of this storm should be i see it south of 20

I see 2 of them. One at 20.5 to 21n 45.5 to 46w ant the other center at 18n 43w.

raysfan, that is where I see it too. Looks to be heading west.

I still see the main one at 20.5n 45.5w. It looks to be dropping wsw toward the other center.

then why would the hurricane center put it more to the north the one 18n 43w seems to be the strongest of the two

I stand corrected, looked again and i can see a faint swirl to the nw ahead of the main convection. At about 22n.

that storm is so out of it.....thats why the NHC said at 11am that it was going to follow the general area, because of the inter turmoil processes that were going on with this system.....one center would form and die and then it would happen again and again.....

You can see it real good on the visible loop

Having the convection doesn't make the center the strongest. Its how organized the center is.

just abother wobble i suppose, how weak does the weakness in the high look to you all i don't understand this

I am surprised that they named it as unorganized it is.

What does every think about the low west of the bahamas?

could there be 2 circualtions again,that is what i am seeing in the visible loop but does not look like it is moving WNW

this morning at 5am it looked good with convection over the center, thats why they named it.....since then it has decreased......and the center has become exposed...and a new center is trying to take shape,,,,,

so it could be back down to a depression you think or will they keep it a TS

Thanks weather for the answer.

some more news about the wave by south america

toyota...what low west of the bahamas...or do you mean east of the bahamas?

they keep it as a TS or the storm should stay longer then this disorganised

Sorry, yeah I mean east.

As long as there is thunderstorm development near the center....the NHC will keep it a Tropical Storm.....but if the convection dies then it loses its status.....the area east of the bahamas is a strong upperlevel low ......sometimes after a week or so of persistent convection and the upperlow itself dies...storms have developed from these situations.....its kind of rare though...

any thoughts on the weakness will it keep the storm going to the north?

has anyone noticed the area coming into the windward islands.......its not much, but on the water vapor it has been persistent....not much at the moment....just interesting....

i'm still afraid of that storm by south america someone gave me a curse Jose wil hunt you :P maybe he get it right

its hard to tell.....because it is so weak, makes it more difficult to forecast....if you read the NHC discussion,,,,its pretty much right on.....if you look at the models here on wunderground.....look at that origins ...there all different....hence different analysis......no continuity, therefore no reliable direction.....

ofcourse there is no reliable direction we will see it but the water is warm enough for it

Have a great day......

it looks to me in the visible loop that the convection is trying to loop around south of 20 zoomed into this

any toughts?

I believe Irene needs to see an eye Dr. not only can the NHC not keep track of it she cant either.Almost looks like she decided now to hit that SW shear head on.Looks as if she's winking her bad eye back south a little..

outrocket if pursay she keep the eye to the south for a while,what would that be for her hitting the weakness in the high?

do you mean its heading southwest?

Link

Look at this where is the center.

no more west then wnw

is see the center its moving wnw

see tha tis what I am talking about there is more convection to the one south of 20 then above it. Is that not where you would say the eye would be? One with more convection

but is see 2 centers

well yea king its under her wig somewhere,right now its hard to find a center,but if that shear keeps up will see a center soon...LOL displaced convection,which eye winks the best wins...LOL looking at link king gave

hmmz strange Ts rather have one with one center easier to predict

yea,I swear if thats 2 centers it defies physics...if that persist we will see maybe two storms.....strange indeed.

and if the storm keep moving west my predicitons comes out it will hit the SSS islands and then Florida and so once again the I is mean :)

did not one model show a split yesterday?...hmmm

out ca that really happen one slit from the other?