Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

If the GFDL proves right for the next 3 days - which is all you can expect, then I believe the trough to the north will curve the system more to the east once in the gulf. This is not a good scenario for Florida.

I agree with you energytrader & whirlwind..

Ernesto seems to be dragging it feet over Haiti in an effort to form a single, coherent circulation. I've seen one spin off into oblivion already. The small "new" one, could spin off as well. If it does, the storm will finally be organized and rather large. I'm not saying this will happen, but Phase I of this scenerio is already completed. This would cause a slight nudge to the east again as far as the track.

Anton I am not looking for advice but you seem to give it. I always listen to the NHC and they are not saying what you are thats for sure.

yeah, some flooding, a few tornadoes, not a big deal...it looks more and more like Ernie will not even survive Cuba...2 days on Cuba will kill it, and it is only a TS. Dennis went from Cat 3 to barily Cat 1 after 2 days over Cuba!

eye, Katrina was only a cat 1 (in Miami), and it knocked out a lot of power and downed a lot of trees.

A cat 1 might not be a threat to tear off tens of thousands of roofs, but it can still bring a city to a standstill.

Frankly, if Ernesto comes up the Western shoreline, or up the middle of Florida it will be just fine with me. This area has been thoughly vetted by recent hurricanes of stronger winds. The rain will do a lot of good, particularly in Northern Florida.

Mike

18.3N74.2W
Center now resuming a course over water
I will check back in a couple of hrs to see if Ernesto ignores the forcast again and returns to a WNW course
Link

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/vis/modis/qkm/20060827.1856.aqua.x.visqkm.05LERNESTO.50kts-1002mb-178N-740W.70pc.jpg

have a look at this photo, copy/paste the link.

Posted By: nash28 at 9:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.
My feel is that there are alot of people on here now who live for the second to second fluctuations in strength and then think they have it all figured out.

Totally agree. Ernesto strengthens and we got a cat 5 on the way. Now today many are saying Ernesto is dead. To me I really haven't had a feel since the center reformed yesterday. Since then I expected more of a western track which has not happened. The NHC's guidance has been poor, to this point, so that really hasn't helped. Many things can still happen. I expect some more changes in the track by tomorrow.

Latest Votex data has the center at 17.7 N 74.1 W. Strange.

how do u think this will affect southeast fl? strong tropical force winds?

Posted By: quakeman55 at 9:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.

Thanks Quakeman, and tampabay, interesting, the next few hours should tell us more, still, if Ernesto gets much futher north, I still predict it will not have enough open water to develop into anything very serious.

Nash: Eye is right, a Cat 1 hurricane is like a severe afternoon thunderstorm. I've lived in Florida all my life, i've been through numerous Hurricanes. In a Cat 1, we will have minimal power outages, some mobile homes may get damaged severely, houses may lose shingles, minor flooding, just a longer, slightly more intense thunderstorm. It will spawn tornadoes however, there really isn't that much of a difference. I've seen some pretty nasty thunderstorms, including earlier this week i had a nasty thunderstorm that was raining 4 inches an hour, phew. Lightning every 3 seconds or so. It lasted for about 20 minutes. I realize that the hurricane would close down businesses and schools for a day, and it would last hours, not minutes. Other than that, a Cat 1 isn't much. When you start getting near a Cat 2, however, then you have houses becoming damaged, some collapse, it's a much nastier story.

I want to apologize for an incorrect prediction...I said FL I hope it is incorrect. I don't want any storms here.

Thaale - Exactly - any storm these days will shut down airports and cause frantic behavior, possibly rightly so after the past few years

Here is the decoded Vortex.

Storm ERNESTO: Observed by AF #302
Storm #05 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #05: 06
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 27, 2006 20:19:20 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 17 � 40 ' N 074 � 06 ' W (17.67� N 74.10� W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850 Millibars: 1465 Meters (Normal: 1457 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 20 Knots (23 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 018 Nautical Miles (20.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 131�
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 033 Knots (37.95 MPH) From 195�
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 062 Nautical Miles (71.3 Miles) From Center At Bearing 131�
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1004 Millibars (29.647 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 17�C (62.6�F) / 1523 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 23�C (73.4�F) / 1523 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 13�C (55.4�F) / NA�C (NA�F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 33 KT E Quadrant at 20:00:40 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

gnshpdude is that location more to the right of the track?

i went thru the EYE of katrina in south fl and man, there was speculation that katrina mitve made landfall as a cat 2 bc those winds that i saw outside my house were unbelievable so if thats wat a cat 1 looks like, all hurricanes whether cat 1 or 5 are nothing to be taken lightly

ok weak hurricane who cares??


BUT tornadoes, no fun, not a game. 100% chance that you loose it all.


anyhow, just wait for the 11pm.update

Wow, Jeb Bush has already issued a state of emergency... a little early don't you think ?

EastCoastWx.net Forums

icecreamgirl-u have mail

new prediction, 40mph at 11pm

Actually more to the SE. I'm not sure if the COC re-formed or what. I'll have wait and see.

Look at Ernesto..Imagine when it moves back over water.

okay yesterday's forcast didn't anticipate the
West Coast of FL to be an issue...why such a
drastic change in forcast in 24hrs? Is there
something else with a "high" or a "trough" or
a "something else" that could change this
forcast again taking it more West??

I guess he just wants to be prepared for the worst case.

Whirlwind- Tornadoes spawned from minor hurricanes, even major hurricanes are never strong. They, most the time, don't even register on the F scale. So it wouldn't do much.

it seen like to me that this is now moveing off and start to come back overe water and is it me or dos it seen like it this dos not want to go with the nhc track well what i mean by that is it look like i might not be right about it but it looking right it movien to near Jamaica then what the nhc as it moveing dos any one see this?

EastCoastWx - I'd say good old Jebby isn't taking any chances. Probably not too early to get everything in place if his state gets hit.

Ernesto is huge....

Weather456- ive beeen looking at floaters all day.

on that view ernesto LOOKS HUGE!!! HUGE!!!

if it wraps all that around him...OH MY @#$@#

Here in North Pinellas County (Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Tarpon Springs), saw several shoppers coming out of a Publix with cartloads of water jugs late this afternoon. The entire water aisle at a nearby Target was empty. Most gas stations had a few cars, but no long lines.

That is scary..

hurricane79,

I agree with you that the GFDL model seems the best for the past few years. Since I live the FL panhandle, I will wait until tommorrows forcast to decide to board up or not.

the center looks to be on the SW tip of haiti, riding along Haiti's southern "leg"

Is the Fla. big bend off the hook of ernesto tracking this far north?

magic, were you in wilma? Tornadoes did a lot of the damage, I watched a pretty good sized one form over top of the school I was staying in and head over to where I was living at the time. Trust me it wasn't pretty afterwards.

it seen like to me that this is now moveing off and start to come back overe water and is it me or dos it seen like it this dos not want to go with the nhc track well what i mean by that is it look like i might not be right about it but it looking right it movien to near Jamaica then what the nhc as it moveing dos any one see this?

Anyone?

BRB, taking a 20 min break

looks to be starting to reorganize to me, u guys agree?

I think Ernesto is becoming MUCH better organized, the strength could come later and much faster with greater potential in a complete system.( no split/twin)

Good evening,
Just checked the latest visual and unless I've really lost it, there appears to be an exposed surface COC at 18.3N, 75.7W. Do we have a new (old?) COC forming? The banding just south of Guantanamo also seems to suggest a new center.

Posted By: magicfan1423 at 2:40 PM PDT on August 27, 2006.
Tazmanian- Ever heard of Spell Check?


LOL sorry about that i try harder