Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I have just been out around Tampa running errands. I don't see much action...gas stations aren't busy, and the one grocery store I passed was no busier than you would expect on a Sunday afternoon. For the most part, people seem to be going about their normal business.

I hope this means that people are prepared. But I suspect it means that many of my fellow Tampanians have developed a false sense of security after past misses.

was that a pic of ernesta and ernesto? Whatever it was it threw the board into chaos and depravity

cyclonebuster,
Very near 90 degrees in those waters...think of it as an IV or caffiene boost to a person its like a jolt in the system

I just joined the blog so I could spam the inappropriate posts. I am here for weather knowledge, as I imagine most others are. For those that would also like to spam inappropriate posts, the way to do it is to join the site by creating a logon. Then, below each post, is an option to label it as spam or obscene. Let's keep the blog focused.

Does anyone know what it would take for the models to track Ernesto further west?

Thanks!

Posted By: whirlwind at 8:45 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.
Posted By: ricderr at 8:40 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.
cat 2 is enough to give you a blue roof and a gutted house


only if u live in a trailer.....we went thru wilma's EYE... no prob .. just tree damage

whirlwind - I went through WILMA too and I would have been fine if not for the things flying around damaging my roof and carport. My neighbors aluminum roof came off and damaged my roof which allowed additional shingles to come off. It is not always the wind as much as the debris flying around. I just got it all repaired this month.

I will have to say that the new system is working rather well.

mlj1, easy, ernesto would have to turn WNW more

Link


Check out this loop. Chose the floater in the area of interest. Slow the speed way down and omit all images except 176 and 180. This will cause a toggle between two images and will aid in determining forward direction.

anybody know the windspeed in JA?

agreed PP cuz if it wasnt this blog would be history

Models are taking this thing more and more east... been seeing alot of people though still holding onto a Mobile/Biloxi landfall

EastCoastWx.net Forums

Does this link look familiar? It is from the GFDL 24 hours ago calling for this exact track....Link

Now, same model run, but 120 hours out: Link

OK, this is my take. Over land, the spun off circulation is history and a new one slightly to the right is firing OVER LAND. That's a good sign and keeping ernesto alive. But, it's possible a third circulation will "run the gap" and try to hit the tip of cuba. Maximum water, kind of like going over the tiny leg knowing that to go around it would leave Cuba staring at you in the face. If ernesto is to "circularize" and become potent, it will have to spin off this second circulation and form a final one and run the gap with it. I think its a possibility, maybe 50/50

Something else to consider
sometimes friction with land on one side of a system can act as a drag so to speak and tend to pull the system in that direction for a while until it clears the land mass in question.
I wonder if Hispaniola "dragged" Ernesto to the NNW and if so now that he is clearing Haiti will this allow a more WNW track ??

I cannot stress enough on how accurate the GFDL track has been so far with this system, it saw the turn NNW across the tip of Haiti. It sees a traversing of Cuba from SE to NW, and it sees a Panhandle landfall...as of 2 days ago, 24 hours ago , and as of now...

Hello All,
Iam happy to see the blog back on track.

It is very difficult to say if this storm is heading more west or more north at this point. Without a better defined eye, or at least a better defined circulation, I can't say that it is doing anything different than the current track.

The key right now is what might happen in these warmer waters. The conditions appear good for intensifiction, but right now Ernesto is not much for strengthening despite these good atmospheric conditions and warm waters. I don't see how this slight brush with Haiti should have such a significamt impact despite these conditions. Maybe this storm will be a fizzler or if not maybe it will take on a drastically different track and strengthen. In comparison, so far this storm has not appeared like many of the storms of the past years to this point.

Posted By: caymanguy at 8:59 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.
anybody know the windspeed in JA?
TWC just said 18 mph

tampacanewatcher

They all seem to leave it till the last minute from what I saw last year ... wait until tomorrow or Tuesday and the mad rush to stock up will start if the track still looks threatening! Why you cant buy tinned goods until 24 hours before the storm beats me!

I got gas in St. Pete a couple hours ago and every station I passed was busy, with one or two cars filling extra jugs. The water was selling briskly at target, too! I was impressed, this is unlike us...

exactly kamin, please also look at my comparisons for the GFDL in the posts below...It has been DEAD ON for the past 2 days

Ive seen a lot of canes go around land/islands. That's not what happened here.

It has nothing to do with the storm..lets stay on topic please?

Interesting question, what are they going to do with the Space Shuttle?

Go to Link , but change the initial time, scroll down to 12Z on the 26th, then animate, you will see what I mean.

tampabayfish - same thing in Hills county...grocery stores and gas stations crowded. It's only going to get worse.

Looks like a whole bunch of us were correct (duh). The storm is a TS and really struggling. We'll see what a break from Hispaniola does, but at present it aint moving very quickly and continues to struggle. I'm surprised Dr M didn't bring up the ULL to the north of Ernesto. I still think there were some PR guys on the flight that called this Hurricane Ernesto. It never looked much like a hurricane today IMO.

any comments of the Aug. 26th GFDL track forecast? Coincidence, or is this the model to have more faith in?

Just like Tampacanewatcher, I have not seen much preparation in Southwest FL. After Charley and Wilma I'm taking no chances.

I am really developing an aversion to blue colored roofs.

Dowgraded to a TS. That is wonderful news. For several reasons, one of which being I won't have to see all the Billy-Bob's refer to it as a 'cane anymore...

hurricane
you are right that the gfdl was and still is bang on. If this continues to play out a WNW track would have to materialise for the old end-of-run position to verify
The next few hrs will be interesting to watch

For those who did not see this loop, please look: Link

Yesterday morning's run with the GFDL. It saw what no other model, or the NHC saw.

uh so it is about to make a come back 90* SST
Thus this should come back to a Hurricane

thanks kmanislander, I could see that WNW turn verify as it encounter the weak ridge over Florida. The trough is not here yet.

thanks nolesjeff