Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

People in Florida, from Pensacola to Miami, should continue to keep a close eye on the progress of this system. Model runs at 2am and 8am will include samplings from the surrounding environment and they will provide us a better idea on where this system is going. However, I do not expect any significant changes in the forecast track. (Maybe a little north and west of current projections.)

Probabilities:

West(Tampa)/Southwest(Punta Gorda) Coast of Florida: (60%)
North Eastern Florida(Big Bend): (25%)
Atlantic Ocean(Missing Florida): (10%)
North Central Gulf: (5%)
Texas: (0%)
Mexico: (0%)

What about if ernesto intensifies and goes around Cuba on the east side of the Island and then goes by the florida keys into the gulf of Mexico and gets to a Cat.5 Hurricane and hits padre island?

i agree with you ike it looks more northward movement

So the Noaa Jet data improves the accuracy of the models or does it still leave many questions?

And this too.

http://media.maps.com/magellan/images/eHAI-W.gif



As you can see, lots to help neutralize the eye so the 'warm water' between Haiti and Cuba SE coast will be of little actual value to storm intensity, at least that's what it looks like is happening.

-StormMan

It should improve the accuracy of the models.

the LLC appears to me to be appraching the west side of the convection, and is close to becoming exposed.... i think! LOL

a href="http://www.weather.com/weather/map/32583?from
hey look


=36hour_map_large" target="_blank">Link

sporteguy
the NOAA jet samples the environment at high altitude whereas the HH is primarily a low altitude invest
the combination of the two gives a nore precise picture of the entire atmospheric environment around the storm thus leading to better model runs
if I have this wrong someone will no doubt correct me
LOL

it will also help the NHC have a better look for their next advisory

well, the storm is looking really bad now. I am going to bed but will get up around 3/4am to check the 2am model runs and see how/what the storm is doing, if anything.

night

Tom Terry's What to expect:
Next 12 hours over Cuba are critical

NOAA Jet data input in models

Stronger High in Bahamas more Westward Shift

Sums it up perfectly!

remember that the nhc can't predict rapid intesification... this thing could hit florida anywhere from a TD to mayb even a cat 4

i hope the track shifts west tonite i will wake up at 6

anyone think the track might shift a little more to the east?

Good nite all

H2O -

You may be right, except that the storm may even track further east.

meaning of Ernesto: noble and famous in battle. Let's see how is does battling land now.

Yeah I agree with the northward movement and relocation of his center I can expect to be further north. If Ernesto can form his coc further north he can avoid Cuba and get out of the Caribbean Sea and then it becomes a whole new ball game. He will then take a more westward path from the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Bahamas. The ull to the north will pull on Ernesto and thats how he gets above Cuba. He will enter the Fl. Straights and reintensify over the warmer waters. Ernesto will then enter the SE Gulf of Mexico. Then at this point it is very possible the front will miss him if this turns out to be right during the next 36 to 72 hours. Then from there on who knows.

I don't know about the rest of u guys, but the W portion of that NW motion is not showing itself. What I notice is - once again - a Nward jump in the CoC, bringing much closer to an earlier exit from Cuba. If it gets out into the Old Bahama Channel just south of Ragged Island, we could see some serious problems. Water there is cooler than S of Cuba, but still warm enough to give Ernesto a considerable boost. Plus this would put it out of interference from any serious land mass for a good 24 hours, more than long enough to strengthen considerably. If it DOES make this short trip, everybody better pray that trough flies down fast enough to force Ernesto east before it can get to the Gulf . . ..

Not that I really want it to come this way; most people here really have been expecting it to stay on the south side of Cuba and out of our hair . . . .

to me looking at the storm and the NHC track the storm seems to be a little more to the right of the track maybe its just me

i agree bahahurican its looks like another northward jog

i agree JP the darn little sneak has got eyes

Thelmores,

Why does that map show Cockburn Town down in the Turks and Caicos???? That's well north and west, on San Salvador . . . .

Trough will miss then a possible Rita situation on our hands. No time for panic just suggesting what could happen if this does play out. I'm off to bed. 11:30pm 8/27/06

I think the nhc has it over cuba too much, i would move it to the right about 50-75 miles...

Take a look our own land hurricaneLink

JP,
Why the increase in forward speed?

dont look now..... WE HAVE A BURST OF CONVECTION "NEAR THE CENTER"

The Haitian hills stole most of Ernesto's mojo. Will he get it back? Stay tuned.

bb tomorrow
gnite all

i agree with you on that hurricaneroman i think way to much over cuba and you can clearly see it jogged north again

Great Satellite Tool

This is my favorite because if you hover your mouse over the section at the top marked "Slider" you can manually control which frame shows just by moving your mouse side to side. This lets you go both forward and in reverse with almost no effort, and in a smooth manner.

I find that especially by looking at it in reverse it's easier to find the COC.

nite kman

I think Ernesto is done.

Eyes on all sides LOL.

Not that this is anything new; wasn't it Ivan that avoided every land mass, even making landfall in the largest inlet it could find in the GoM?? I remember it was forecast to go in at the Mississippi Delta, only it veered off to find Mobile Bay . . . .

I just checked my forecast for the week on the NWS site and weather.com. The NWS site has wind gusts to 105 mph on Wednesday night, while weather.com has 7mph winds. Bizarre.

Take a look at the water vapor loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html notice how everything over FL is moving to the west? Ernesto will continue to track NW overall under this influence. It might go north for a few hours then swing west for awhile thus overall you get a NW motion. Normally little jogs like this mean nothing in a storm two days away from a US landfall but in this case it makes all the difference due to the interaction with moutains in Cuba. This is a tricky little storm.

I'm in the middle of the cone and will post updates as needed: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JM2/show.html

yea Baha these things are sooooooooooo amazing