Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

bayoubug...i dont see an ULL over the bahamas, we wish it would shear, but Ernesto would have to be on the east of it to get sheared

ok everyone spam da Punk

If it is a slow crawer, that would be a killer, but some mid strength storms are real weak like this one even when it develops. Well have to see, but even the bad track might not be so bad. Fingers crossed.

oops, I mean weak on the west side , sorry.

Im back ty storm junkie

Because for the most part..the people with the insight we trust are here(at leaste for me anyway)

scla a jog is just a jog!

..sees Ernesto making a good comeback in building the CDO..around a tightening coc.The Cyclone in the process has shifted somewhat to the wnw during this period.About the last 2hrs.Although some of the motion could be derived from the tightening infloe .the motion has been consistent the last hour.around 291 @ 7-8mph. Ernesto still gives a good overall look to his outflow..and the ULL to its north that has been its lead the past 12.Is having less northward pull on the system.More observation is needed to see if the new motion is transitory..or a trend .

Posted By: cyclonebuster at 11:42 PM GMT on August 27, 2006.
I love how the initial positions on that map above are all in different locations!!

The run times for each model are very different. Details CB, gotta mind the details.

where is cantore headed for

sorry just east of the bahamas..

ClearH20Fla- this is a little bit frightening, isn't it? Not sure how much this area could sustain. We get killed on a good thunderstorm.

Hey Jp,
Nice to see ya waiting to see if Tom Terry has a weigh in on Ernesto, hes good at this stuff.

does it look to be intensifiying right now?

cyclonebuster, that is an idiotic thing to say, because 1. i live in West Palm Beach, and 2. what would make you say that

I was expecting the GDFL to switch to the east.... that makes 3 models that have landfall about 50 miles north of Tampa or about 100 miles SE of Tallahassee. That seems reasonable.

Similar to Charley though, unexpected turns can happen. This storm could continue north a little longer and threaten the Big Bend or it could move into South Florida and threaten Punta Gorda again.

Florida's west coastline is such that a 50 mile change in path (which isn't a lot) could cause a major difference in the strength and the location of where it hits.

The 2am and 8am model runs tomorrow should tell us a lot.

Also, Ernesto is moving WNW for the most part, a little more west than expected. This is good news as a NW path would allow it to cross Cuba much quicker than forecasted.

On flying over Cuba and whether they would notice, Cuba does have radar and stuff. The met people seem to be able to interact w/ US sufficiently to share info. I dunno about military planes, even HH, overflying, though. IF the gov. did allow it, it would prolly only be the NOAA plane, which is (I am assuming) techically not military.

OTOH, the Cuban military does have a rep. for shooting first and talking about it only if necessary . . . .

So I'd say no fly-overs, but possibly radar info and whatever native observations are taken may be made available via WMO . . .

There's an ULL over the Bahamas?

NOT SCREAMING OR ANYTHING, JUST SEEMS EASIER TO GET READ.........

I'd like to see people list their reasons why they think the storm will do what their opinion is. If it's a wild guess, then great! At least we'll know it.

Here's what I think and I could be totally off the mark but........

I think the storm will start moving westward or wnw because on the water vapor loop, it looks like the northern most bands, as they are expanding toward the north, are running into the high(clockwise circulation anyway). This seems to me to be redirecting them to the west. That motion seems to carry it possibly to the west of Cuba at this point. It looks to me like the part that is anchored over Georgia would maintain itself for several more days.

Also, the low that seemed to be blocking it's westward progression has moved over Mexico.

I think it will go west/wnw over the next 12 hours.

No need for screaming, just my opinion and the reasons. I know most think it's going more N I'd like to know WHY they think it.

Miami, FT lauderdale, West Palm Beach, St. Lucie,Cape Canaveral, Daytona and Tallahassee could be wiped out with this storm."

What makes you think it will be so powerful? I see a frances at best.( with a big eye)

Hiya from Nassau, The Bahamas. :)
I'm watching Ernesto with great interest; but I know of very few other persons here who are doing the same. :(
Wishing all the best during this season.

HurricaneRoman, i'm not going to argue with you. But a "jog" can throw off the track a little.. maybe not much, but it definately can..

I don't see the jog look at the overall storm and u will see it is right on track ... i hope im wrong :/

hi stormw, whats your take on Ernesto

Man.....what happened to Ernie? He isn't looking as good as he was this morning! There's been almost a 20 mb. pressure rise!

looks like ernesto is heading nw not wnw or w at all

Hey tampagirl i agree we flood over here if a cloud snezzes. I think we will be ok though

456..no

I think the blowup heading W or WSW is not where the COC is. There's a bright red blowup on the north side of that stick of land attached to the rest of Haiti. I think the actual COC either crossed there or is reforming near there.

I'm probably way wrong and you guys will tell me so...but nevertheless...what do you guys think?

Link

my post are posting like 5 minutes after I hit 'POST COMMENT'

whirlwind..thats an idiotic thing to say

tonight i feel like a broken record, i think im gonna leave

.in the wv the ULL is small ..but has been the effect that had drawn Ernie N of the track.Evryone thought the tuckULL to its west yesterday would slide west.And it did.But the effectof the ULL in the Bahamas..wasnt picked up on till the effects were in p-lay..Now it is disconnecting from that influence..thus the wnw..recent movement..

I think this is an issue for Florida and only florida; not sure about landfall yet

Maybe Florida is the highest probability right now but everybody from Mexico to the Keys need to keep an eye out.

I think this Ernesto is going right up the East coast of FLA.Bye! Bye! East coast!!

I was referring to the last few posts of cyclonebuster, JP

Ernie doesn't want to be a weakling! Look at the thunderstorm explosion near the end of this loop.

I hope Dr.Masters can talk about the HH lack of ability to fly to Cuba in his blog....I wonder what his thoughts are.

Ernesto's eye re-forms to the north of the western tip of Haiti. Does anyone agree with this?

sorry... its the excitement building...... i shall refran